Harper's View on Winning the Election

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 86) August 5, 2015

Its official, the 2015 federal election campaign is “officially” underway and there is little doubt on what is to come, the campaign is going to be unusual, exciting and excruciatingly long.  On Sunday Prime Minister Stephen Harper asked Governor General David Johnston to issue a writ and dissolve Canada’s 41^st Parliament.  The writ was issued and the 11 week election campaign became a reality – in Canada, election campaigns are usually about 5 weeks in length, at least that’s the way it’s been for the past 140 years.  A few thoughts on how Mr. Harper kicked things off:

Cost of Early Election Call 

While it is easy to dismiss Mr. Harper’s early election call as the opportunity to more effectively communicate with Canadians, to the Canadian taxpayer it means that Elections Canada will be spending an estimated $500 million for expenses and political rebates – an important portion of the $500 million is a result of the early election call.

Clear Strategy, Control the Message

While some pundits have framed Mr. Harper’s early election call as an exercise in political trickery, I feel the call was a meticulous calculation.  Mr. Harper had no choice but to call for an extended election campaign.  In my view Mr. Harper’s goal is to control the message going out to Canadians until October 19, he and the Conservatives have the dollars to do it.    

Harper’s War Chest  

Mr. Harper has amassed a war chest that political rivals are unable to match.  As well, the “new” rules attached to federal election campaigns means spending by other, “third” party interest groups (unions, aboriginals) will be strictly controlled, if not disallowed.  Good news for Mr. Harper and his Conservatives, bad news for Mulcair and Trudeau who have stumbled at the starting gate. 

New Language

Mr. Harper is using new words and phrases to reflect a new approach to campaigning and at the same time defends his leadership and performance.  The country must “stay the course”, otherwise there is “risk” and things could get “dangerous”.  Mr. Harper is claiming that the causes of Canada’s poor economic performance are outside the control of his government.  And regardless, the negative impacts are only having “temporary effects” in Canada.

The Polls

The public opinion polls are where Mr. Harper wants them – a basic tie between Harper’s Conservatives (30.9 percent), Mulcair’s New Democrats (33.2 percent) and Trudeau’s Liberals (25.9 percent).  What is worrisome to Mr. Harper is the surge by Mulcair’s New Democratic support and what occurred in Alberta’s election last May.  If Mr. Harper can keep the public support between the three leaders relatively even, he feels he can move up the center on October 19 and form a minority government.