Tuesday, 18 August 2015

The National Election Campaign - Uncertain and Precarious



Whispering in the Wind (WITW 88) August 19, 2015
Two weeks ago the political discussion in Canada was all about the leadership debate and whether any of the prospective leader candidates has what it takes to be prime minister.  This last week the political gossip was all about the Mike Duffy trial and the appearance of Stephen Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright.  As to my impressions on the leadership debate, I have mixed feelings on the performance of the four leaders:                        Stephen Harper was unable to defend his disappointing record on what can only be described as a sputtering economy.  In the leadership debate, the prime minister did not shine as a particularly good manager of Canada’s economic circumstance.  Put another way, Mr. Harper misjudged the global political economy and has yet to present a plan to make Canada more sustainable and viable.                                                                              Thomas Mulcair appeared nervous at the beginning of the debate and unable to take advantage of his party’s success in the national polling, and particularly Rachel Notley’s NDP win in Alberta.  Mr. Mulcair’s stance on what constitutes a Quebec separation mandate and his party’s wish to abolish Canada’s Senate will haunt his chances to form a national government on October 19.                                                                                                    Justin Trudeau outperformed both the prime minister and the opposition leader.  Mr. Trudeau’s position on the Senate and Quebec separation will bode well for him in any future debates, especially those in Quebec.  In my view Mr. Trudeau demonstrated confidence and spunk in the debate and that means he is a contender.  What Mr. Trudeau has to do in his campaign for the country’s top political job is to show leadership of an experienced team of politicians and take his collegial, “consensus building” gloves off when sparring with his political opponents.                                                                 Elizabeth May has always (almost always) shown class and intelligence when dealing with the political issues being faced, unfortunately the Green Party which she leads has been branded as being a single issue party.  Nevertheless Elizabeth May could become an important force should the October 19 election generate a minority government (of course she will have to win her seat on Vancouver Island as well). 

The Mike Duffy Factor – Explosive!
Election Day is still two months off and Canadians are still thinking and doing things related to the summer months.  At the same time, people like me are spending time assessing the ever changing political landscape and trying to determine what will resonate with the public on Election Day.  My assessment, the Mike Duffy trial will decide for many of the undecided.  After a two month recess, the Mike Duffy trial resumed deliberations last week with Stephen Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright testifying.  While Mr. Wright’s testimony is still underway (and with other witnesses yet to testify), it is becoming clear; the Duffy Trial has become a hodgepodge of inconsistencies, lies and contradictions, along with interference and cover-ups.  Surprisingly the accusations are not necessarily being directed at Mike Duffy.  In the end and I don’t see it going any other way, the trial will lead to disaster for some, embarrassment for others.  As to the impact on the election, I think it prudent to leave summary conclusions for a few weeks and after the trial has concluded – as to Stephen Harper’s reaction on what has been presented, he views the apparent facts differently?

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