Questionable Government Management and Financing

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 85) July 29, 2015

A number of political realities have settled in amongst the political elite of the Conservative Party of Canada.  Realities that have forced Mr. Harper to implement a “revised” campaign strategy, a strategy that would give his Conservative Party a fighting chance to win majority government status in this fall’s general election.  Stephen Harper is out to win a “majority”, anything less would be deemed a complete and personal failure. 

The Economy

To say the least, the Canadian economy is on very shaky ground.  The national unemployment rate has for months remained at a static 6.8 percent.  What is particularly disturbing are the youth unemployment rates, they are double the national averages.  Last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz refused to use the dreaded  “R” word to describe the performance of Canada’s economy but did say the nation’s economy contracted in the past two quarters, for a total contraction of 1.0 percent in the first half of 2015 – technically, Canada is in another recession.  This economic state of affairs has got to be disturbing to Mr. Harper, who just two months ago bragged at an international forum stating that the Canadian economy was “the envy of the entire world”.  Added to these Conservative disappointments are a couple of long standing, big ticket items that haven’t been settled to anybody’s satisfaction – Barack Obama’s refusal to sign off on the Keystone XL pipeline proposal and Europe’s reluctance to ratify the Canada, EU Free Trade Agreement, suggests that the Harper style of negotiating agreements and the guiding the nation’s economy during turbulent times has failed miserably.    

Canada’s Finances

The Canadian government’s financial situation has gotten analysts, pundits and politicians going every which way to describe the government’s fiscal management.  The confusion allows pundits to snipe at each other on radio and television, but it also leaves the electorate wondering about the integrity of politicians.  Two weeks ago Joe Oliver, Canada’s Minister of Finance said that he expected “solid growth” for Canada in 2015”.  And on the matter of the government’s 2015 budget, Prime Minister Harper opined:  “Our budgeting is very conservative and we are well on track to realize a balanced budget this year.”  At the same time parliament’s Parliamentary Budget Officer, Jean-Denis Frechette determined that Mr. Harper’s government will fail to achieve a key promise and balance the government’s books in 2015.  Based on Mr. Frechette’s conclusion, the opposition parties have demanded a meeting with Joe Oliver, to explain the obvious discrepancies between his forecast of a small surplus in the budget and the $1 billion deficit forecasted by the Parliamentary Budget Officer.  What is particularly interesting about the process used to demand an explanation from the Finance Minister, the House of Commons Rules will frame the meeting within five days of the request from three Finance Committee members.  The rules would not apply, should an election be called.  The federal election is set for October 19, but the calling of an election can take place at any time.  Confused?