Harper's Debate Performance, Stumbled Badly

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 87) August 12, 2015

Canada’s October 19 election is still ten weeks away and for the most part, Canadian thoughts are still on gardening, mowing the lawn and what remains of their summer holiday.   For “nominated” candidates seeking support from their local electorate, it’s all about exposure (picnics, rodeos, parades) and when forced to making a substantive comment, they offer only the party line, no matter what that party line might be.  For party leaders and the party machines behind the leaders, it’s all about what might resonate with the public and then determining how to best communicate with the public after the Labour Day weekend. 

Last Week’s Leadership Debate

Good analysis of last week’s televised leadership debate is lacking and for me, it suggests that the debate occurred far too early in the campaign.  One poll taken in British Columbia, just after last Thursday’s debate there is the suggestion that British Columbians are convinced that Justin Trudeau proved himself to be feisty and the best debater, while Thomas Mulcair was the most effective leader and most likely to win the October 19 election.  As to the more heated exchanges between the party leaders in the two hour debate last Thursday, I think three encounters are worth mentioning and will resonate with the Canadian electorate.

On the Economy

The debate on whether Canada was in a recession caused Stephen Harper to stumble.  Thomas Mulcair observed to Mr. Harper that many observers feel Canada is in a recession.  Mr. Harper nervously responded:  “I’m not denying that [there is a recession] but what I’m saying is that that contraction is almost exclusively in the energy sector.”  Mr. Harper later tried to recover from his blunder and suggested that his government culminated trade deals with 44 countries, up from five when he took office.  Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party and no slouch to national political debates, retorted that the trade deals were set up “to sell us down the river on national sovereignty.”  May went on to criticize Mr. Harper and his investment treaty with China, saying:  “Beijing will be looking over the shoulder of the next prime minister and telling us which laws we’re allowed to pass.”  In total, Mr. Harper fumbled the ball on the economic issues, with Thomas Mulcair and Elizabeth May showing knowledge and strength.

The Clarity Act

If there was a surprise in last week’s debate, it was the Mulcair, Trudeau exchange on the Clarity Act and whether a 50 percent plus one vote in a Quebec referendum would be sufficient mandate to break up the country?  With gusto, Thomas Mulcair repeatedly pressed Justin Trudeau for a percentage number.  Irritated, Mr. Trudeau fired back with what was the knockout punch of the debate and in my view, demonstrated that Justin Trudeau is a credible candidate for the role of prime minister:  “My number is nine.”  And Mr. Trudeau went on to say:  “Nine supreme court justices said one vote is not enough to break up this country and yet that is Mr. Mulcair’s . He wants to be prime minister of this country and he is choosing to side with the separatist movement in Quebec and not with the Supreme Court of Canada.”  How this plays out during the balance of the campaign in Quebec is crucial for both Mulcair and Trudeau.  It could be the factor that determines who will be Canada’s next prime minister.

Terrorism

While terrorism was discussed at last Thursday’s debate, in my view it was not considered a core issue for the debate.  Mr. Mulcair did criticize Mr. Trudeau’s support of Harper’s anti-terrorism initiative (C-51) and Mr. Trudeau responded with his view, that the bill “immediately and concretely protects Canadian society” and he is committed “to repealing problematic elements.”  What is surprising for me is Mr. Harper’s position and how he is using the “terrorism card” in his overall campaign.  Just four days after Mr. Harper stumbled on his government’s economic performance in the debate, he introduced new measures on Canadian travel to countries where there is known terrorism threat – in Stephen Harper’s mind that’s a lot of countries.  In my mind, will the fear, terrorism factor become the only useable card left in Mr. Harper’s approach to re-election?