Whisper in the Wind (WITW 93) October 14, 2015
This is my last “kick at the cat” when it comes to the October
19 election, so if you’re on the wrong side of what is to come, read and weep.
The
Polls
Public opinion polls are indicating that the three major
parties and their leaders are not admitting defeat when it comes to support
from the Canadian electorate. The latest
polls are showing Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 34.2 percent support, Stephen
Harper’s Conservatives at 31.7 percent and Thomas Mulcair’s NDP at 23.4 percent. Public support appears to be swinging toward Justin
Trudeau and the Liberals, all at the expense of both the NDP and the
Conservatives. Another poll taken a while
back by the Ipsos Reid organization indicated that 70 percent of the Canadian
electorate want a change of direction in Ottawa – suggesting that the three way
political log-jam of confusion has been around for some time. Said another way and voiced by the former
premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams: “Anything But Conservative”.
All
is Not Well in the Conservative Camp
While the Ipsos Reid poll suggests 70 percent of Canada’s
population is dissatisfied with Mr. Harper’s government, there is indication
that there is some softening of support within the rank and file of the
conservative movement itself. Amongst
the conservative elite, the feelings are all about Mr. Harper and his style of
governance, the feeling is mixed. Former
Prime Minister Joe Clark is quite
critical of Mr. Harper and his governance style; including his approach to
foreign affairs matters and specifically his dealing in Ukraine. Mr. Clark also questions Mr. Harper’s approach
to the Senate expenses scandal and the Duffy trial. The former Progressive Conservative prime
minister recommends that Mr. Harper “bring people into the facts … {Stephen
Harper] needs to tell the real story and he needs to seek some advice as to
what’s the most effective way to do that”.
Brian Mulroney,
another former conservative prime minister chastised Stephen Harper for his
spats with the Supreme Court of Canada; his negative attitude toward the United
Nations and his un-relationship with the United States’ president, Barack
Obama. An even more caustic rebuke of Stephen
Harper was spewed out by former Progressive Conservative premier of
Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny
Williams. In a recent interview
Mr. Williams observed that Stephen Harper can’t be trusted: “Over time we have seen this man cannot be
trusted. He had no integrity. He’s trying to stifle democracy. There is no end to what he’s doing.” Danny Williams ended up saying “He’s a lousy prime minister who’s divisive.” To balance the stark rebukes of the more
progressive conservative right thinkers, Preston
Manning (the guru of the Reform Party and thought to be Stephen
Harper’s mentor) has very strong reservations about Mr. Harper’s management
style (ruthless) and strongly disagrees with some of his legislation (the Fair
Elections Act). As to whether any of
these disagreements and hostile voices are pervasive within the general
conservative movement, and whether these
elitist voices are going to impact the voting intentions amongst the rank and
file in the Conservative Party on Election Day, only time will tell? I hope it
will, so let me add My Perspective
. As a somewhat disillusioned
conservative, let me make three points which I feel should be considered when
deciding who to vote for on October 19. First,
Mr. Harper has in the past 10 years become a “one man party” and that in itself
is a very dangerous situation in Canada – for a single individual to wield so
much unbridled control and power in a democracy like Canada is simply unacceptable. Second, Mr. Harper is a laissez-fairest (an
individual who feels that the economy should be in the hands of the corporate,
business world with little or no interference from government). Third, Mr. Harper’s disrespect for Canada’s
parliamentary system and its institutions (Supreme Court of Canada, the
Canadian Senate, et al) is, in my mind a threat to how Canadians will be
governed in the future.
Justin
Trudeau; on a Roll, will it Last?
Justin Trudeau is on a roll and his successes should not
be discounted – after all is said and done, it’s possible Mr. Trudeau could be Canada’s
23rd prime minister. Polls are indicating
that Mr. Trudeau has a 34.3 approval rating amongst the Canadian electorate and
his status appears to be growing. If the
up-starts momentum continues he could become Canada’s next prime minister with
a “majority” Liberal government. What is
phenomenal about Trudeau’s success is that he has moved from a dismal third place
at the beginning of the campaign, to the public’s top choice six days from October
19 election. In the leadership debates
that I saw Mr. Trudeau was articulate about his positions and was aggressive
enough (some have called him testy) to put his opponents on edge – proving that
he could stand up to the more seasoned Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair. While the re-election strategy for Mr. Harper
was to promote fear (if he weren’t to be re-elected) and Mr. Mulcair, lashing out
with anger and hostility whenever his opponents promoted anything; Justin
Trudeau’s strategy was to be pragmatic, realistic and positive. Mr. Trudeau’s basic stance on the Canadian
economy was sputtering (denied by Harper) and the public’s intense interest in
jobs and security of their particular work environment played out well for the
Liberals. Mr. Trudeau’s solution to the
present economic woes of Canada caused him to put forward a massive
infrastructure program that will be paid for after the economy starts to move
in the right direction – a slam-dunk for Justin Trudeau and accepted by many voters
across the country – it was also a positive, confidence builder in an uncertain,
apprehensive population. There are two
other actions taken by Justin Trudeau worth mentioning which clearly
demonstrates Trudeau’s personal approach to parliamentary democracy. Last year at the height of the Senate
expenses scandal Mr. Trudeau abruptly removed the Liberal members of the Senate
from his parliamentary caucus and declared the labelled Liberal Senators
Independent. While this action is not a
solution to the many Senate issues and problems, it is the beginning of a
solution and should not be ignored.
Another classy move made by Justin Trudeau deals with the European
Refugee Crisis. In the House of Commons debate
on the crisis, Mr. Trudeau suggested a meeting of party leaders to address
Canada’s role in the crisis and how to speed up the refugee application process,
giving due attention to security – Trudeau’s recommendation was rejected. While Mr. Trudeau has proven himself to be a
strong contender for the country’s top political job and he is fortunate to
have a strong, experienced Liberal organization backing him up. Nevertheless there
is still 6 days of campaigning to go – I sincerely hope he doesn’t stumble.
Tom Mulcair
is Stumbling, Can He Recover?
Last week in this column I identified Stephen Harper,
Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair as three mythological titans battling it out
with spears of political accusations and personal condemnations. Mr. Mulcair proved himself to be an
outstanding warrior when he battled against Stephen Harper in the House of
Commons on the Senate Expenses Scandal and the Mike Duffy Affair. Unfortunately something happened to the
Mulcair campaign on the ground, in the trenches (particularly in Quebec) that
is causing his poll numbers to plummet into the 20s – that’s not good news for
the Mr. Mulcair / NDP campaign. In the
2011 election the NDP won 59 seats in Quebec and consolidated their Official
Opposition status in Ottawa. The current
polls are indicating that the NDP are strong in 42 ridings – it is no wonder
that the Conservatives and Liberals in Quebec are like vultures purporting to
be the best choice in next Monday’s election.
Another important factor comes into play and possibly is the answer to
the NDP declines. A month ago when the
Conservatives, NDP, Liberals were tied in the polls a glib observation was made,
the NDP and the Liberals were fighting over who would end up in second
place. Maybe the public have made up
their minds and are swinging toward the Liberals. In Quebec there are other complicating
factors that are impacting voter preference.
In rural Quebec the Niqab issue remains an issue and Mr. Mulcair hasn’t
been able to finesse the issue, so the NDP leader responded by saying Mr.
Harper is playing the race card – that might be the case but the Niqab issue
resonated differently in rural Quebec and Mr. Mulcair didn’t see the difference? The Bloc Quebecois is another wild card in
Quebec politics but it appears that the party and its leader Gilles Duceppe
will have minimal impact on the final results – winning 3 or 4 seats in the
House of Commons. Fortunately for Mr.
Mulcair, it appears that his difficulties in Quebec are not dramatically
affecting his support in other parts of the country.
A
Final Thought on Leadership
While the battle between Harper, Mulcair and Trudeau will
be settled in a few short days with the result being significant, if not “earth
shaking” for Canada. What has been lost
in the kerfuffle is the sane, sagged views of Elizabeth May and the Green Party
of Canada. Her limited participation in
the debates and her strenuous efforts should not be discounted. In the end, she will make a difference in
tomorrow’s political environment.
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