Tuesday, 20 October 2015

A Justin Trudeau Landslide



Whispering in the Wind (WITW 94) October 21, 2015

The votes have been counted and in the good old fashioned Canadian tradition, the results and impacts are uncertain:

                                                 Voter Support                          Seats                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Canada                       Canada  Alberta
Conservative Party                         32%                                  99        29
New Democratic Party                   19%                                  44          1
Liberal Party                                    40%                               184          4
Green Party                                       3%                                   1         - -
Bloc Quebecois                                5%                                 10         - -
Other                                                 - -%                                  - -         - -

The Leaders – What Went Right, What Went Wrong?
October 19’s general election is now a part of Canadian history and for the major players, it was a shocker.  For Justin Trudeau there was total elation – not only did he win an election using a much more confident, positive campaign strategy (something the general public desperately needed), he is now prime minister-elect with a “majority” Liberal government.  For Stephen Harper there was disappointment and embarrassment – the Harper Way of governing was rebuffed by a good portion of the country’s electorate.  After a respectful concession speech, Mr. Harper later admitted his failure and said he would resign as party leader.  When the incumbent prime minister realized that his fear and division strategy wasn’t working in the minds of the electorate, he got confused and then desperate in his tactical decisions (e.g. matching up with the Ford bros two days before the election).  Thomas Mulcair proved himself as a very principled leader of the Official Opposition and demonstrated it well in his confrontations with Stephen Harper in the House of Commons on the Mike Duffy scandal.  At the end of August (still early in the election campaign) Mr. Mulcair and the NDP had a 40 percent approval rating from the Canadian electorate, well above his rivals.  Nevertheless, Mr. Mulcair’s more confrontational tone (something that might work in a courtroom or the House of Commons) was what did him in with the general public, particularly in the province of Quebec.  How Mr. Mulcair handled the niqab issue was his “poisoned pill” in the province of Quebec – what was such a disaster for Mr. Mulcair ended up to be of great benefit for  Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois.  Gilles Duceppe more than doubled his party’s presence in the new House of Commons.  As to Elizabeth May and her single seat win on Vancouver Island there was disappointment for the Greens and the environmental movement in Canada.  Nevertheless, Elizabeth May should not be counted out of the political picture when it comes to being more involved with developing Canadian environmental policy – that is, if the new Liberal prime minister lives up to his campaign words of being more inclusive.
Harper’s Defeat   
Stephen Harper’s decision to step aside as leader of “his” Conservative Party of Canada is going to have a profound effect on the future of the conservative movement in Canada.  For Mr. Harper the results of the October 19 election were disappointing.  My assessment, Mr. Harper was not able to coalesce the “Red” Tories in eastern Canada with his “Blue” Tory base on the prairies.  Now that Mr. Harper has stepped aside, does it mean that the fusion of the Alliance-Reform movement with the long standing Progressive Conservative Party in December of 2003 was/is a failed experiment – made more complicated by Mr. Harper’s more aggressive, controlling management style?  No doubt in my mind, the Conservative Party of Canada is in turmoil and now that Mr. Harper is moving on, who will be going to replace him?      

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