Stephen Harper's Battle Isn't Over

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 92) October 7, 2015

In less than two weeks Canadians will be going to the polls and choosing which party and which leader is going to rule the country for the next four years.  At this point in time it is fair to say that Stephen Harper of the Conservatives, Thomas Mulcair of the NDP and Justin Trudeau of the Liberals are in a dead heat when it comes to capturing the hearts, minds and votes of the Canadian electorate.  What follows are some of my impressions and thoughts on what is going on in the Stephen Harper campaign and the reader should be cautioned, beware of my biases.   

The 2015 Election Campaign:  A Battle of the Titans

The 2015 election campaign has become a battle between three sword wielding titans, each having different, if not questionable qualifications to lead a pluralistic nation like Canada.  The promises being made in this campaign and the history each leader brings to the election table are being used like spears to put fear in the minds of the Canadian electorate should the wrong leader be chosen. 

Stephen Harper:  Stumbling But Definitely Not Out of the Picture

Stephen Harper has been prime minister of Canada for 10 years so there is no denying that he has experience in being Canada’s top politician.  Nevertheless, for me and many others:  has the 10 year rule under Mr. Harper made Canadians better off and has Canada become a more secure, sustainable nation in light of the global upheavals?  According to some opinion polls up to 70 percent of the population is dissatisfied and want political change in Canada.  In other polls, up to 60 percent of the electorate prefer either Thomas Mulcair or Justin Trudeau over Stephen Harper as Canada’s next prime minister.  Mr. Harper’s capacity to lead Canada for another four year term is partly based on how his past record plays out in the next 10 days.  From my perspective there are five topics resonating with the public that could very well determine whether Mr. Harper and the Conservatives get re-elected as government.                                                                                                 The Senate Expenses Scandal and the Mike Duffy Trial is playing out like last year’s blockbuster movie – exciting when it was playing but other priorities have taken over.  I still feel the issues of cover up transparency and accountability are lingering in the minds of the public when it comes to the Duffy fiasco and the public wants to know Mr. Harper’s specific role in the Senate scandal and the role of his gang at the PMO in the matter.  In my view, the Duffy Trial will resonate with the public on Election Day and is the prime reason for the 70 percent polling number which asks for political change in Ottawa.                                                                                     The European Refugee Crisis and Mr. Harper’s resistance to act immediately and humanely will have a negative impact on the “soft” support for the Conservatives, particularly with immigrant Canadians.  The Harper government’s minimal response to the refugee crisis in Europe also suggests a level of arrogance on the part of Mr. Harper and unbecoming a Canadian prime minister.                                                                                              Developing any sort of realistic Energy and Environmental Policy for Mr. Harper has taken a back seat to the feeling of remorse.  And it all relates to his inability to get approval from President Obama for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, the collapse of international oil prices and of course, Rachel Notley’s NDP win in Alberta.  My view, should Mr. Harper’s Conservatives win the most seats in the October 19 election will be to prepare for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (November 30 – December 11) – he might be too embarrassed to even attend?                                                                                                      Economy and Trade Policy has become the center piece of Mr. Harper’s bid for re-election and his wish for another majority.  As to the numbers used to describe his economic accomplishments, Mr. Harper used some accounting magic to claim a balanced budget for government operations and continues to opine that the economy was growing, without mentioning that the country was in a technical recession.  The real number to watch out for is Canada’s unemployment rate for September (to be released on October 9). Should the rate climb above 7 percent I think Mr. Harper’s opponents will have a field day claiming that Harper’s job creation record is outrageous and his performance as an economic manager, dismal.  Another important unemployment rate figure to watch is the youth unemployment rate (presently at 13.1 percent) and if it goes up it could be another signal that the Harper government’s job creation program isn’t working and could spur the youth to get out and vote – not good news for the Harper government.                                                                                    The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) framework agreement came just at the right time for Mr. Harper in his re-election bid.  While trade is the lifeblood of the Canadian economy and negotiating good trade agreements are the necessary tools to advance Canada’s prosperity there are always concerns and pitfalls – and the devil is in the details.  I will have a lot more to say about the TPP in next week’s column but for the moment I can only say that the TPP announcement is a boost for Mr. Harper’s chances on October 19.