Another "Orange Crush" Possibility?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 83) July22, 2015

Canada’s 42^nd general election is less than three months away.  Actually, the campaign to win the hearts and minds of the Canadian electorate began well over a year ago and it has always been about political leadership.  Even today, the questions remain as they did a year ago:  Can Stephen Harper recover from the Duffy scandal?  Who is Thomas Mulcair?  Is Justin Trudeau more than his wavy hair?   

The Political State of Play 

Many in Alberta were surprised by the May 5, 2015 election in Alberta, when and where Rachel Notley’s Alberta New Democratic Party won the right to govern a province that was in the hands of the right leaning Alberta PCs for some 44 years.  At the same time, the NDP victory in Alberta shocked all of Canada and dramatically changed the political landscape for the upcoming October 19 general election.  Important to realize, Canadians were already skittish about the policies and management style of Stephen Harper – one poll that is taken on an annual basis is showing consistent numbers, 53 percent of Canadians feel that Mr. Harper is leading Canada in the wrong direction.  Other recent polls indicate a Thomas Mulcair, NDP surge, with a 33 percent approval rating, 4 percentage points ahead of Mr. Harper’s Conservatives and 7 points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.  It’s a little early to suggest that Mr. Mulcair and the NDP are going to perform another “Orange Crush” but there is no question, Mr. Mulcair has gained some recognition and momentum, largely because of the Notley win in Alberta.  If Thomas Mulcair can carry that momentum into the debate season, he has a chance to form Canada’s first national NDP government.  For the present, Stephen Harper is on the defense and refuses to address the many questions put to him – he refuses to communicate with Canadians.  As well, Justin Trudeau simply hasn’t shown any spirit or spunk.    

The Debates

One of the great ironies attached to Canadian politics is just how devious politics can become, all at the expense of the electorate.  The televised leadership debates, an institution that has historically been the time when millions of Canadians judge the record and capabilities of the leadership candidates, has actually become a mishmash of controversy within the media industry (perpetrated by the Conservatives).  Presently there are something like 10 proposals put forward by various media organizations with little concrete commitment from any of the major political parties.  I’ve always thought that politics was the expression of ideas and politicians, with different approaches, debating the merits of their ideas and arriving at the best solution for the public – it’s not happening in this election.