Harper Hit Hard with Alberta's NDP Win

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 76) May 20, 2015

Judging Canada’s ever changing political scene has become even more complicated with the NDP election win in Alberta.  While Rachel Notley continues to muse about how she is going to govern Alberta, mandarins in Ottawa are trying to sort out the implications of Alberta’s Orange Wave election results and whether there is a mood swing within the country’s electorate?

An Unexpected  Orange Wave Hits Alberta

The Rachel Notley, New Democratic election win in Alberta was a real shocker for anybody and everybody interested in politics.  Winning 54 seats of the 87 seat legislative assembly, the NDP established itself as the chosen alternative opposite a political culture that has lost its way.  The Alberta PC loss is being attributed to a good number of factors, all having substance and credibility – beginning with Allison Redford and her feeling of entitlement, for both herself and her government.  When Jim Prentice offered his cold “look in the mirror” remark in response to the government’s financial mess, the people of Alberta felt insulted, if not betrayed.  Then he presented a budget that was viewed to be anti-people and pro-corporation.  Quickly the political momentum shifted to the down-to-earth personality of Rachel Notley.  Polls taken after the leadership debate indicated that change was inevitable and the Rachel Notley team was leading.  The debate held just days before the election, is when and where Rachel Notley clearly and skillfully demonstrated that she was premier material, was  empathetic toward an apprehensive public, and could stand up to her competitors – the rest is history.

Can An Orange Wave Sweep Canada?

The big question circulating throughout Canada and in the various campaign war rooms in Ottawa; will what happened in Alberta on May 5 be repeated in the upcoming federal election?  An EKOS political poll taken just after the Alberta election (between May 6 through 12) saw support for Thomas Mulcair’s ND party move up 5 percentage points in just one week and settled into a virtual tie with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 30 percent – Justin Trudeau’s Liberals garnered 27 percent support.  Now a single poll does not necessarily indicate a trend nor does it indicate a wave of support for the national NDP.  But it is positive movement and Thomas Mulcair has got to be pleased, if not ecstatic.  What is real and cannot be denied, the NDP won a majority government in the country’s center for right wing thinking – so dramatic change is possible in the most unbelievable places.  My conclusion, it all depends on the fickle nature of the public and the reality of mood swings – the public was dissatisfied with the PC government in Alberta and the public was fed up and got change in the ballot box.  A good number of Canadians are dissatisfied with the performance of the Harper government and want change but that in itself does not mean there is going to be a ground swell for change.  What the Alberta election proves that anything is possible – and that has got the political mandarins in Ottawa worried. 

Winning the Hearts and Minds of Canadians

The war rooms of the national political parties have got to be buzzing with changes to their election campaign strategies and how their political leadership will be presented to the Canadian public from now to election-day – in light of the NDP win in Alberta.  Party spokespeople are already squabbling about the expected leadership debates.  Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have found that the traditional debating format is unacceptable – where the big TV broadcasters, CBC, CTV and Global, structure the issues, questions and the debating format.  I think it is obvious; Stephen Harper doesn’t want to debate the likes of Thomas Mulcair or Justin Trudeau.  What Stephen Harper’s spokespeople want are friendly, set questions coming from friendly news men and women.  From my perspective, how to handle debates issue is just a tactic to avoid having a healthy dialogue on performance and issues facing Canada – and for the prime minister he needs to defend his record and his performance.  There are many important questions that should be debated – as the Alberta leadership debate in Alberta clearly demonstrated, each question and each response can be a mood changer for the electorate.