Alberta Election, VOLCANIC

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 7) May 13, 2015

The May 5, 2015 election in Alberta is now history with pundits labelling the results astounding and ground breaking – my take on the results, VOLCANIC! 

The Results

Rachel Notley and her Alberta New Democratic Party swept much of the province on May 5^th.  The NDP garnered over 40 percent of the popular vote and 53 seats in the 87 seat Alberta Legislative Assembly.  Brian Jean and the Alberta Wildrose Party got 24 percent of the popular vote and won 21seats in the Legislative Assembly – the Wildrose is now the Alberta government’s Official Opposition.  The Alberta Liberal Party with 4 percent of the popular vote and the Alberta Party with 2 percent support, each won a single seat.  The Alberta Progressive Conservative Party suffered a number of catastrophic losses.  The PCs received 28 percent of the popular vote (devastating) and 10 seats in the Alberta Legislative Assembly (embarrassing).  When the results became clear, Jim Prentice acknowledged personal responsibility for the PC debacle.  Adding further insults to an obviously demoralized, critically wounded party, Jim Prentice summarily resigned his leadership position at the PC association and with the same breath, resigned the seat that he had just won in the Calgary-Foothills constituency.

The Results in Perspective

Putting Alberta’s election results into some sort of perspective is not a task for the faint at heart, particularly if you’re a die-hard “progressive” conservative.  Let me put forward some of my views regarding present circumstances, circumstances that can only be described as volatile.

Alberta’s Economic Circumstance, Shaky  

In the past six months, Alberta’s economic circumstance has moved from a boom scenario to bust situation – largely due to the 2014 collapse of international oil prices.  Currently energy prices are creeping upward, toward more economically realistic levels.  Along with a lower Canadian dollar, the energy sector in Alberta should be more optimistic than what is being reported in the media.  Nevertheless there are a number of big outstanding political issues facing the energy industry in Alberta and the issues all relate to politics.  With the election of an NDP government in Alberta the issues have been significantly magnified, making energy CEOs very edgy and hesitant.

Alberta’s Political Circumstance, Shaky

As the new economic reality settled in during the first three months of 2015 the mood of Albertans swung from carefree optimism and anticipation to apprehension, despair and fear.  The public’s mood was electrified at the end of March when Premier Prentice offered Albertans a belt-tightening budget as part of a 10 year plan.  The 10 year plan was aimed at addressing the government’s financial quagmire.  The 2015 budget details were interpreted by Albertans as being a direct hit on the average Albertan, with no hit directed at the corporate world.  The under-current of dissatisfaction turned to a tsunami.  The televised leader’s debate is where Rachel Notley, leader of the New Democrats, stole the show and demonstrated that she had what it takes to be a premier.  And along the way, she came across as a people’s person who is standing up to the status quo politicians.

Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Circumstance, Shaky

With the poor showing of the Alberta PCs in the May 5 election and the resignation of Jim Prentice as party leader on election night has put the party in a very precarious, if not dire situation.  The ire of PC supporters was magnified when Mr. Prentice resigned his seat that he had just won.  I understand that a letter is being circulated to Alberta PC members (haven’t received mine) indicating that the Alberta PC Association is resolute to remain a progressive conservative movement.  How this tattered progressive party deals with its commitment to remain “progressive” is yet to be explained.  The bigger question in my mind, can the progressive conservatives in Alberta remain independent of the more extreme views on the right, a struggle that produced a political disaster at the federal level less than 10 years ago – only time will tell?

Alberta New Democratic Party Circumstance, Shaky

Rachel Notley and the New Democrats have the majority and the numbers to sustain a government for a full term – even with a block on the right.  What is lacking in a New Democratic government is depth but lacking depth is not unusual when there’s been revolutionary political change – it was successfully dealt with in 1971 when Peter Lougheed took over from the 32 year reign of the Social Credit party – no doubt in my mind, it can and will be dealt with in 2015 by Rachel Notley.  Not only is there going to be a sharp learning curve for good number of neophyte politicians but there is another major challenge that Notley will have to address in the next few months, how to quickly change the culture in an entrenched civil service?  Rachel Notley is facing numerous challenges in the coming weeks and months – her agenda is long and complex – it’s going to be interesting to watch and digest her actions.  For those who are so disappointed in the election results (myself included), Rachel Notley won the election of May 5, 2015 handily and therefore deserves a chance to prove that her approach is better than what was.