Canadians Want Change - Too Early to Call

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 81) June 24, 2015

With the federal election less than four months away politicians are starting to get serious about winning the hearts and minds of the Canadian electorate.  I suspect July and August will see a good number of wannabe candidates lurking the countryside on a social circuit, punching posters on lawns and claiming to anyone who will listen; that his/her party is the only party that can deal with the major issues facing Canada.  In September and October the battle for voter attention will be ratcheted up with more focus on party leadership.  Canadians will be offered a number of leadership debates with a good deal more attention paid to advertising, most of which will be negative.  No doubt, the next 115 days is going to be filled with drama and intrigue – all wrapped up with skullduggery.

Political State of Play in Canada

The serious political campaigns have just begun with most of the polls suggesting the three main political parties are running neck to neck to neck in terms of voter intensions.  Based on the latest compilation of polls:  Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are at 30 percent approval rating; Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats at 29 percent; and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 28 percent.  Considering the regional distribution of support, pollsters are suggesting that if an election were to be held now, a Conservative minority government would emerge with the New Democrats retaining the role of Official Opposition.  What is surprising, the polls appear to be changing and changing fast, all at the expense of Mr. Harper and his Conservative Party government.  The latest EKOS poll has put Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats on top at 30 percent approval with the Conservatives and Liberals each at 28 percent.  While one poll does not indicate a trend, but it might suggest a change in momentum and yes, it could mean the beginning of another Orange Crush not too different to the surprising NDP win in Alberta. 

The Mood of the People

While voter intension polls are suggesting a tight race between the Conservatives, NDPs and Liberals, another data set is suggesting that Canadians are disappointed with the performance of Mr. Harper’s government, a disappointment that has been recorded for a number of years.  The EKOS polling organization has tracked the mood of the Canadian electorate for a number of years and the news is not good for Mr. Harper’s government.  Presently, 57 percent of the population feel the government is taking the country in the wrong direction – in 2014 the level of dissatisfaction was over 60 percent.  What is clear from the polling data, Canadians want a new approach to governance in Canada and for the present, Thomas Mulcair has the momentum and the edge over his adversaries.  Weather Mr. Mulcair can maintain momentum and sustain his edge until October 19 another open question – a number of pundits have already concluded that Mulcair has peaked too early for him to become prime minister.  My view, don’t discount another Orange Crush. 

How will You Vote?

Prior to any federal or provincial election, I have consistently suggested that voters should ponder on three pretty straightforward questions before deciding how to vote.  First there is the party’s platform and its clarity.  Does the party platform move Canada forward as a nation and make country a better place to live?  Secondly, the party leadership and does the party leader have the skills to lead, does the leader exude the confidence of a leader?  Third, the specific candidates located in the riding where “you” will vote.  Will the local candidate reflect independent thoughts and views?  I continue to hold to the approach just described but it is becoming more and more difficult in light of the growing control over independent thought by a more centralized, autocratic party machine.