Canada Needs a Political Wave, But Which Color?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 78) June 3, 2015

Alberta’s May 5 election experience clearly revealed that judging the mood of an electorate in uncertain times is a dicey undertaking.  Jim Prentice, considered one of Canada’s most experienced, sophisticated political minds, totally misjudged Albertans and he paid the price.  The results; at least one political career was destroyed and a party put in jeopardy.  What has been described as uncanny event in Alberta is now being paralleled at the national level.  There is a penetrating question being asked in many coffee bars around the country, can and will the nation’s election this fall reflect another wave of support (or dissent) with the status quo?

The National Campaigns, Just Starting

As the country copes with uncertain social, economic conditions, Canadians are coping with another uncertainty, the infamous election campaign.  Actually the campaign began months ago with party leaders offering many promises and commitments.  Nevertheless, in the next few weeks political contenders will be out in full force, having calculated (or being told) the best way to win the hearts and minds of a fickle electorate.  At the same time, pollsters and pundits are already using their polling techniques to judge the mood of the electorate and assess the factors that could influence an apprehensive voter.

The Polls Reflects Uncertainty

The most recent national political opinion polls have placed the three major political parties into a virtual tie.  In terms of the latest snapshot of public support for the parties; the Conservatives have a 31 percent approval rating, the Liberals have 29 percent support and the New Democrats are at 27 percent.  Viewed on a regional basis the Conservatives are well ahead of the other in the prairies, as are the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.  The New Democrats have a not-so-defining lead in Quebec and British Columbia.  My perspective, the battle ground in this election campaign is going to be Ontario and British Columbia where 163 seats are at stake.  The polling data also suggests that if an election was to be held tomorrow, the Conservatives would form a minority government in the 338 seat House of Commons – the data does not reliably predict which party would form the Official Opposition.  Another poll worth mentioning is the annual poll undertaken by the Nanos Research group on government performance.  The latest Nanos poll concludes that Canadians are disappointed in the Harper government’s performance – 56 percent of those surveyed feel that the Harper government is going in the wrong direction with 45 percent indicating the government performed poorly or very poorly.  Nanos’ 2011 survey reflected a much different picture with 64 percent of Canadians feeling that the country is moving in the right direction. 

Party Leadership, Key to Winning

Prior to any federal election, I have always asked the voter to consider the party itself and its purpose, the party’s platform and its campaign promises, as well as the individual candidates and party’s leadership.  This election appears to be all about the leaders, their integrity and their management style.                                                                                                    Stephen Harper has been identified by a number of close associates as controlling, sly and secretive.  From what I have observed and read, I would add that Mr. Harper has shown little regard, or respect for the Westminster style of parliamentary governance, a dangerous disposition if you are a prime minister governing with a majority.  As to Mr. Harper’s major achievements there is one worth mentioning and in my view, was a true effort on the part of Mr. Harper to do some Nation Building.  Bill C-33, “The First Nations Control of First Nations Education Act”.  Bill-33 was a collaborative effort in early 2014, between Mr. Harper and the grand chief of the Assembly of First Nations, Shawn Atleo.  Bill-33 was deemed unacceptable by a number of First Nations leaders and remains in limbo, a clear sign that there are big problems ahead for Canada, no matter who leads the country.                                                                                    Thomas Mulcair has rightly been identified as a superb parliamentarian.  Unfortunately Mr. Mulcair hasn’t had the exposure in English Canada that would identify him as a possible prime minister in waiting – although the recent NDP win in Alberta could change his standing, big time.  It is worth noting that in the early days of his political career, Mr. Mulcair was the single NDP member in Quebec’s National Assembly.  After the 2011 Quebec election the NDP caucus grew to 58members, some of the credit for the Quebec “orange wave” was bestowed on Tom Mulcair.  Mr. Mulcair is known to have fits of anger; behind closed doors but in the House of Commons and when he is before the TV cameras he consistently demonstrates an acute command of his role as leader of the Official Opposition.                                                                                               Justin Trudeau has been leader of the Liberal Party of Canada for just about 26 months and in those two plus years he was placed on a steep learning curve by a party that is very strong and has lots of experience in governing Canada.  As well, the party retains a good number of seasoned politicians who are used to government leadership and are fully behind their leader.  Two things worth mentioning about Mr. Trudeau’s management style and his youthful political approach:  first, he believes in engagement and consensus building, a style that offered “hope” for change in Ottawa’s way of doing business – the idea went over well with the public and his ratings sored.  What was a new way of doing government business in Ottawa was foreign to most politicians and Mr. Trudeau was ridiculed for his youth and inexperience.  Second point and put in the simplest of terms: Justin Trudeau’s training days are over and it’s time for campaigning for the country’s top job.  It means that the leader, Justin Trudeau, will need to confidently present a platform of ideas that will need promoting and if somebody snipes at him, then he has no choice he has snipe back with vigor.

A Closing Comment

I end this column with a comment on the question I posed at the beginning of the article – can and will a wave of support (or dissent) emerge in the campaign?  In my there are dozens of issues that could trigger Canadians to move on mass toward one of the three leaders.  In the weeks to come I intend to elaborate on at least three issues that could easily cause waves:  the Economy; the Truth and Reconciliation Report; the Senate Scandal and the Duffy Trial.