Alberta Election Suggests a Coalition

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 73) April 29, 2015

Tuesday, May 5 is Election Day in Alberta and that means this article is my last kick at the cat and offer my insights as to what might be unfolding.  The way things are unfolding, the electoral vote could result in monumental change to the province’s political landscape.   Here is my take on the situation in a province that is six days away from D day.   

The Alberta Leadership Debate

Last week’s leadership debate between the four wan-a-be premiers was revealing and for some pundits the event was a game changer.  From my perspective the debate crystalized the four campaign strategies and yes, the debate was a game changer.    

In the debate, Jim Prentice of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party defended his government’s austerity approach to address what can only be described as dire financial circumstances in Alberta.  Mr. Prentice and his government passed a ten year action plan in the Alberta Legislative Assembly, a plan that he felt would address the major economic and social issues facing the province in a business-like, realistic manner.  Mr. Prentice felt it necessary to go to the electorate for approval.    

David Swann of the Alberta Liberal Party nervously tried to contribute to the debate, was unsuccessful and in his interruptions and in the end was ignored.  One pundit indicated that Mr. Swann stumbled through his presentations and his comments were flat, cold and uninspiring.

Brian Jean of the Alberta Wildrose Party was defensive and unresponsive in last week’s leadership debate.  When challenged by Mr. Prentice on the Wildrose’s proposal for a two tired healthcare system, Mr. Jean was vague and unresponsive.  When repeatedly asked about how a Wildrose government would finance an $18billion shortfall in government revenues Mr. Jean was again was vague and unresponsive.  In the debate Jean came across like a broken record and repeatedly said he would deal with financial crisis in the government without instituting any tax increases without giving specifics on how he would generate revenue.   

Rachel Notley of the Alberta New Democratic Party was clearly the winner in the debate last Thursday.  She seemed to be comfortable in her party’s platform and at times challenged Mr. Prentice into confusion – as one pundit put it, Rachel Notley was the sharpest knife in the drawer.  Ms. Notley’s performance at the debate proved that she could stand up to the most astute politicians in Alberta and she was premier material.

The Polls Give the New Democrats Momentum

Trying to measure the mood of the electorate is a dangerous business but it is done all the time – its call polling.  My family has received at least five calls from polling companies in the past month or so asking how we would vote in the Alberta election.  On the internet there are listed some 11 official polls that give published results and the results are damaging for Jim Prentice and the Alberta PCs.  Of the eleven published polls 5 give the edge to the NDP, 3 of the polls favor the Wildrose Party and another 3 suggest that it is a toss-up between the New Democrats and the Wildrose.  None of the polls give the edge to the Alberta PCs.

My Perspective – I Continue to Support Prentice and the Alberta PCs

The Alberta public is in a state of shock by what has and is happening in the province’s boom to bust economy.  Fear and apprehension are in the mindsets of many Albertans today and they are looking for some assurance and stability from their government leaders.  In my view Jim Prentice and the Alberta PCs have offered a reasonable approach to digging the province out of its financial / economic mess; nevertheless, it is going to take time and some belt tightening.  As to the Wildrose position, the math doesn’t add up and there is no explanation on how they would address the financial crisis.  Equally the New Democrats are suggesting a royalty review which would prove to be disastrous for investment under present circumstances – there is a time for a royalty review, but now is not the time.

With the polls suggesting a three way race to the finish, there is an even more dire circumstance that could beset the province on May 6 – a three way tie in the number of seats held by the PC, Wildrose and the NDP.  AND THAT MEANS COALITION – Heaven forbid!