Ukraine, a powder keg, who lit the fuse?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 18) March 5, 2014

In less than a week the Ukraine has become a geopolitical powder keg with Russian troops circulating throughout the Ukrainian Crimea region under orders to protect Russian interests and the Russian speaking peoples of the area.  In this column there is no attempt to speculate on what might happen next in the current crisis – that will be up to Mr. Putin.  The analysis here is an attempt to outline two underlying issues that are guiding this very complex, explosive situation     

Ukraine, a Geopolitical Nightmare

Ukraine is the largest of all the European nations with many observers calling the Ukraine, “Europe’s breadbasket”.  About a third of Ukraine’s population (and about a third of the country’s landmass) is Russian speaking and favor stronger ties to the Russian Federation.  In 1954 the then Soviet Union ceded the Crimea region to Ukraine and is today the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (with its own constitution) under Ukrainian law.  The Crimea region is 60 percent Russian speaking – a recent poll indicated that over 40 percent of the population want closer ties with Russia, if not annexation – also worth noting the Russian Black Sea naval fleet is stationed by contract in Simferopol, Crimea’s capital city.  From my perspective the Ukraine is divided with a good majority of the western portion of the country wanting closer ties with the European Union, including NATO’s military protection.  The eastern half of the Ukraine wants closer ties with the Russian Federation.  The “temporary” governing regime in Kiev has scheduled a presidential election for May, 2014 to replace the ousted pro-Moscow president, Viktor Yanukovych.  Mr. Yanukovych fled to Moscow in fear of his life but has recently broadcasted that he is still president of the Ukraine.  My prediction, the country will remain divided after the May 25, 2014 presidential elections and after a straight forward referendum, the Crimea will be returned to the Russian Federation.          

Vladimir Putin Has Delusions of Grandeur

Simply put, President Putin considers the European Union and the People’s Republic of China to be major threats working against him and his plans for Russia.  Put another way, President Putin wants to establish an economic bloc that spans from Europe to the Chinese boundary – surprisingly Mr. Putin has some of the cards to take on the challenge, Russia’s oil and gas resources.  Mr. Putin is said to be undertaking taking a “soft annexation” approach and that means working through and with the Russian speaking peoples in the former soviet satellites.  Already on side are Belarus, Kazakhstan and the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.  Now Mr. Putin’s focus is on the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.  As I mentioned in the earlier note, no matter what happens in the presidential elections on May 25, 2014 the Ukraine will remain divided and what most likely will happen, there will be a plebiscite in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea that will favor Russia – and that is what is so worrying in the West.