Nationalis is a Good Thing - But Not Putin's!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 19) March 12, 2014

Making sense of recent events in the Ukraine is not an easy undertaking and predicting the outcomes of Russia’s occupation of the Crimea is an even more precarious venture.  Following are a few of my conclusions regarding the turmoil in the Ukraine and what the global village can look forward to in the not too distant future.   

Putin’s Vision – Vladimir Putin has only one vision for his Mother Russia; a re-constituted Soviet Union.  Mr. Putin feels that by absorbing Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence he will destabilize Europe’s influence in other countries where ethnic Russians have gained a relevant foothold.  Mr. Putin has the tools – Russia’s oil and gas resources - to see his goal achieved.          

Ukraine Response – The Ukraine response to Russia’s incursion into the Crimea region has been embarrassing and virtually non-existent.  Interim president (Arseniy Yatsemyuk) has called for elections in May and if these elections are held the eastern half of Ukraine will become total chaos and will only magnify a divided Ukraine.  In terms of financial solvency, the Ukraine is a basket case.  The United States has offered a billion dollars in immediate support while the need is estimated at $35 to $50 billion.  The International Monetary Fund is reviewing the needs but will not give out any significant funding without assurances of more stability and less corruption.  Civil war is likely unless Mr. Putin’s goals are addressed.  

Response from “The West” – The response from western interests has also been weak with the exception of one initiative – the seizing of the western assets being held by Russian oligarchs.  Not to overstate the sanctions being proposed but the consequences could be significant if it goes further than just Russia’s investments outside their country.  One example is worth noting should the unregulated international financial markets be seriously investigated and / or seriously tampered with.  The ousted president of the Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych is now being investigated by a number of American experts.  Mr. Yanukovych is being investigated for absconding with something like $70 billion, all coming from the Ukrainian treasury over a period of three years – apparently the ousted president left an important financial paper trail in his rush to leave the Ukraine.           

My Perspective – In my view the Ukraine is only the proverbial tip of the iceberg.  Globalization, the unregulated global system of trade and finance, is now being threatened.  Said in another way, the rule of the corporation in molding national objectives and policies is being challenged.  Nationalism is on the rise and that is a good thing; unfortunately extreme nationalism is also on the rise.