Is There Anybody To Lead Canada?

Whispering in the Wind WITW 10 January 10, 2014

This is the time of year for reflection and anticipation.  For this column, my attempt is to offer some comment on three political figures and their supporting organizations:  Steven Harper, Prime Minister of Canada; Thomas Mulcair, Leader of the Official Opposition and Justin Trudeau, Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. 

Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada:

2013 was a very bad year for Steven Harper and his government.  The Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has cascaded downward from 40 percent in 2011 to something like 24 percent with one recent poll putting him at 18 percent.  There is no doubt in my mind, it was/is Mr. Harper’s attitude and approach to the Senate Scandal (and the 2011 unfolding Robocall scandal) that caused the majority of Canadians to lose faith in Mr. Harper and by extension, his government – simply put, Canadians no longer trust Mr. Harper.  On the other hand Mr. Harper does have some time to move things in a different direction, after all the next federal election is still close to two years away.  There are three things that I will be watching out for in 2014 as it relates to Mr. Harper’s future.  First, how the Conservative Party of Canada views Mr. Harper’s standing in the polls over the next three months and who might emerge as a contender for Mr. Harper’s job – at this point in time only two stand out as possible progressive contenders; Jason Kenney don’t forget the Premier of Saskatchewan.  Second, whether the RCMP investigations determine that there is a direct link to Mr. Harper himself and will those findings be released prior to the election – either way Mr. Harper loses, he will be branded a poor judge of character and a poor manager or he will be identified as part of the conspiracy.  Third, there are a number of major policy questions that Mr. Harper still needs to address – the final approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline and how he will address the aboriginal concerns – how he will address the 2014 Quebec election and the proposed Charter of Values – how Mr. Harper is going to deal with his proposed education program for aboriginal youth, a program that for the moment is being rejected by the Assembly of First Nations.

Thomas Mulcair, Leader of the Official Opposition

2013 was a very good year for Thomas Mulcair.  Mr. Mulcair’s approval rating amongst Canadians has moved in just eight months from 25 percent to 50 percent – he is now considered to be the most popular politician in Quebec.  Mr. Mulcair’s only claim to fame is his performance in the House of Commons – he clearly demonstrated his acute parliamentary skills when challenging Prime Minister Harper’s role in the so-called Senate Scandal – to the point of utter embarrassment for Prime Minister Harper.  Mr. Mulcair’s biggest challenge in 2014 will be to moderate his various New Democratic Party of Canada policy positions toward the center of the political spectrum.  At this point in time the more progressive voters respect his parliamentarian talents but are moving toward Justin Trudeau.  From my perspective Mr. Mulcair’s biggest challenge is going to be how he handles Quebec politics within a national framework. 

Justin Trudeau, Liberal Party of Canada

Justin Trudeau was elected leader of the Liberal Party of Canada in April, 2013 and has already proved to be a major contender when it comes to federal politics.  Mr. Trudeau’s approval rating amongst Canadians stands at 48 percent and is comparable to that of Thomas Mulcair, leader of the Official Opposition.   There is still some doubt about Mr. Trudeau’s capacity to govern – about 23 percent of Canadians are unsure of Justin Trudeau’s talents and leadership qualities.  Two things are operating in his favor.  First the Liberal Party of Canada is a strong, formable organization and second his party has staked out the center as its domain.  As to Mr. Trudeau’s leadership qualities we will see what happens in 2014.  In a year end interview Mr. Trudeau offered little in way of evidence that he can lead and was quite weak in terms of specific policy positions.  Mr. Trudeau will have to show his stripes at the Liberal Party Conference in February, 2014.