Harper's Government Situation

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 11) January 15, 2013

2013 proved to be a particularly dramatic year in Canadian politics and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that things went woefully wrong for Prime Minister Harper, his government and the Conservative Party of Canada.  With the political situation being what it is today a major question has to be asked:  will Prime Minister Harper be able to regain the trust and confidence of Canadian voters in light of the Senate Expenses Scandal? 

Mr. Harper’s “Situation”

Mr. Harper’s current, troubling situation actually began over a year ago with a relatively minor kerfuffle where three Conservative Senators were taking advantage of some lax, unenforced Senate expense and residency rules.  Things exploded for the Prime Minister in May, 2013 when it was revealed that the Prime Minister’s office was directly involved in making cash payments to Senator Mike Duffy for his disputed expenses.  Mr. Harper’s image was further damaged with Canadians by his performance in the House of Commons where he refused to offer any clarity regarding his personal role in the Duffy payments.  Many Canadians viewed Mr. Harper’s performance and statements in the House of Commons as misleading and covering up other nefarious actions yet to be revealed.  The economy, Mr. Harper’s political strength, suffered a blow with the announcement that 60,000 permanent jobs were lost in the month of December with the overall unemployment rate increasing to 7.2 percent, up from 6.9 percent recorded in November.  Now one month’s statistic does not establish a trend but what is very disturbing is the youth unemployment rate climbed to 14 percent and that figure alone has got to be a wake-up call for the Harper government – and the need to address the impacts of the government’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program.

Conservative Party of Canada’s “Situation”

According to the Conservative Party of Canada, they are committed to Prime Minister Harper and there doesn’t seem to be any financial problems as a consequence of the Senate scandal –apparently there are fewer donors to the Conservative cause but those that are donating are giving more money. How the Conservative Party of Canada prepares itself for the 2015 election is going to be particularly interesting.  First reality, there are going to be more ridings (from the 308 seats contested in the 2011 election to 338 seats for the 2015 election) and that means new boundaries so no sane incumbent will be able to claim to be in a safe riding.   Second reality and it’s a big one for the Conservatives, there are going to be some major battles at the constituency level during the nomination process – the battle is going to be  between the Red Tories (the old Progressive Conservative group) and the Blue Tories (the old Reform- Alliance group).  One major battle has already surfaced in Calgary with MP Rob Anders (considered to be a staunch Blue Tory with strong ties to Steven Harper) and Merv Leitch (considered to be more progressive and a former Minister in Alberta’s Progressive Conservative government).  The question that comes to mind – will the nomination battle between the Red and Blue Tories filter into other ridings across Canada?  Second question, will Steven Harper hang around to fight in any battles?