Justin Trudeau is a Dummkopf!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 32) June 4, 2014

In Edmonton many, many years ago my German speaking grandmother often referred to the young – myself included – as being “dummkopfs” for their mistakes and misdeeds.  To explain, a “dummkopf” is an affectionate German term that literally means “stupid head”, although I prefer the label, “dumb head”.  In today’s lexicon it sometimes refers to someone who is being an idiot.

Affectionately, Justin Trudeau is a Dummkopf!

Justin Trudeau assumed leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada on April 14, 2013 and almost immediately the Liberal party surged to be the most preferred party opposite Mr. Harper’s Conservatives and Mr. Mulcair’s New Democrats.  In many circles Justin Trudeau projected HOPE that things could be done differently.  The EKOS polling firm in December, 2013 ranked Trudeau’s Liberals at 32.1 percent, Harper’s Conservatives at 26.2 percent, Mulcair’s New Democrats at 22.9 percent.  In April, 2014 EKOS ranked the Liberals at 34.9 percent, the Conservatives at 27.6 percent and the New Democrats at 21.4 percent.  Some polls taken in the last month or so are suggesting that the Harper Conservatives have taken a small lead in voter preference opposite the Liberals and New Democrats.  If you ask the Conservative machine, they are suggesting that their advertising is working – Trudeau is “in over his head”.  What is surprising, Mr. Trudeau is offering some credibility to the Conservative slur ads with his past and recent political misstatements and gaffes.  The most recent miscalculation has been the confusing, contradictory kerfuffle over the Liberal leader’s edict on having an open, free nomination process at the constituency level and the pro-choice question.  In interviews in the last week or so Mr. Trudeau has tried to soften his stance on the issues which makes the matter even more confusing.  How he handles the matter will answer the question: is Justin Trudeau fit for the office of prime minister? 

Are There Any Other Dummkopfs?

Thomas Mulcair:  Thomas Mulcair, leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada, has been correctly identified as an exceptional parliamentarian and he can add to his resume, he’s cornered the prime minister in the Senate expenses scandal, an event that is yet to be fully explained.  Mr. Mulcair is not a dummkopf but that does not mean he hasn’t done some really dumb things.  On top of the list of dumb things is Mulcair’s position on the Senate – he and his party want the Senate abolished.  Now that the Supreme Court has given its decision on the matter and the prime minister has opined that any change must come from the provinces, why shouldn’t the Leader of the Opposition voice a strategy or some recommendations?    Nation Building should not only be the prerogative of the prime minister. 

Steven Harper:  If there is one thing I’m sure of, Steven Harper is no dummkopf.  In my mind, Mr. Harper is a brilliant strategist and to his credit, he almost always has an exit strategy.  But things have gone amiss in the last year or so and the question on everybody’s mind is he able to manage the 2015 election campaign to his benefit.  To highlight a few of his glaring mistakes:  The Senate Scandal story is not complete, specifically Mr. Harper’s personal role in the unacceptable payment of $90,000 payment to Senator Duffy – in the absence of transparency one can only speculate.  The Supreme Court decision on the Senate reform did not go according to Mr. Harper’s wishes.  Criticizing the Chief Justice on the court’s rejection of Mr. Harper’s nomination to the high court demonstrates a lack of understanding of the Supreme Court’s role in Canada.  The Election Reform Act proved that the Harper government to be unreasonably arrogant over the reasoning of experts.  The rejection of the Aboriginal Education initiative by native leaders has destroyed aboriginal relations for years to come.  The Temporary Foreign Workers Program as implemented by the Harper government has proved to be a catastrophe with few options available for repair.

A Final Thought      

Mr. Harper’s political personality can be best described by the World War II slogan:  “Loose Lips Sink Ships” and might be his most enduring political asset but things have gone amok and could very well be the root of his demise.  And by the way, Justin Trudeau could take heed of the “Loose Lips Sink Ships” slogan when planning for the 2015 election.

Canada's Electorate - A Generational Mishmash

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 31) May 27, 2014

Many years ago I worked as a market analyst for a major manufacturing firm in Edmonton.  In those days I spent untold hours trying to define and understand the characteristics of a loyal customer versus the not-so-loyal, potential customer.  Things are not different in politics from what I did in the back rooms of corporate Alberta – know your customer and understand your potential customer.  Within political parties there are armies of analysts and advisors who continuously feed politicians platform statements, strategies and scripted statements, all structured to win the hearts and minds of a volatile, segmented voting public. 

The Electorate – A Generational Mishmash

Understanding the political electorate is crucial to winning elections – the trick for politicians is to understand their constituency of interest and then follow a strategy that lures maximum support from a very volatile, segmented voting public.  Following is one approach offered by social scientists who define the Canadian population in terms attitudes and values, by age groups.  I’ve addressed this traditional population segmentation analysis and how it is being dealt with by today’s political leadership.    

War Generation – Typically the War Generation population is retirement age.  Generally the group has limited access to computers and are well versed in the trials of the World War II years.  These so called war babies were heavily influenced by their parents who lived and dealt with the struggles attached to the Great Depression years.  Worthy to note, Canada’s 65 -74 year olds, as a group has more than doubled in the last twenty years with experts projecting that in the next twenty years, this seniors group will make up a quarter of Canada’s population.  This reality of an aging population and their priorities of social security and healthcare is now drawing a lot of attention from politicians.  Relevant for the politician is the voter participation rate for this age group.  In the 2011 federal election, those in the 65 – 74 years category had a voter participation rate of 75.1 percent, higher than any other age group.  Politicians that ignore the War Generation’s rigid “old fashioned” ways and their priorities will do so at their peril.  From my perspective Steven Harper has been most successful amongst the federal leaders in luring the War Generation population into his sphere of influence.           

Baby Boomers – Now approaching retirement age “boomers” are those born in the decades following the end of World War II and were reared in the golden age of opportunity and  prosperity.  The Baby Boomers are now 45-65 years of age.  They are considered a generation who were reared and supported by parents who experienced the Great Depression.  The boomers have values that generally include; strong close family ties, respect for their elders and the law.  The boomers generally hold more traditional values when it comes to marriage and birth control.  Baby boomers have a strong sense of paying off their mortgages as quickly as possible and storing away saving to supplement their government and private pension plans.  Common put-downs range from being part of the “me” generation with “last century” values.  Baby boomers are very high on security and have generally planned for their retirement.  From a demographic perspective, those in the 45 to 65 age category constitute about 28 percent of Canada’s population.  Canada’s Baby Boomers are in control of much of the country’s wealth and influence in politics.  For the politician it is becoming very evident that the wealth generators are growing older with fewer people able to fill the anticipated taxation shortfall.   I don’t think there is any doubt healthcare costs are going to escalate in the next twenty years and the politician doesn’t know how to deal with the likely implosion.  Again Steven Harper comes out on top opposite Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau but there are some severe reservations about  Mr. Harper’s handling of a number of other serious issues.  In my view Baby Boomers will end up judging whether Mr. Harper is an autocrat or just a strong manager of his troops.  Mr. Mulcair has been ranked as an excellent parliamentarian but unfortunately belongs to the wrong party.  Judgement on Mr. Trudeau is still pending as Baby Boomers feel that Mr. Trudeau has made some good suggestions but has gaffed too many times and is just not experienced enough to take over the reins of power. 

Generation X – Those born between the early 1960s through to 1980 (now in their early 30s to their mid-40s) are often labelled the “slacker” generation, uncommitted and unfocused – the “why me?” generation.  “Xers” are the first generation to experience full commitment to the internet age, high divorce rates and have been known to change jobs and careers more often because they expected more.  While Xer’s parents experienced the zoot-zooter and hippy eras, the Xers themselves are keeping their heads down and don’t want to get involved in anything that might change themselves or the world.  Again I would rank Mr. Harper the winner, only because Xers don’t want to rock a reasonably stable ship. 

Generation Y – Those born between 1981 and 1994 – aged between 20 and 30 years – are considered lazy, debt-ridden and programmed for instant gratification.   They are portrayed as demanding and unrealistic in their aspirations.  Now we can add “internet-addicted” and “lonely” – they have few friends and are very disappointed should a friend not live up to expectations, Yers are very possessive.  In my view Yers aren’t happy with their stage in life so they are looking for a way out but it will be difficult for them to choose between Mulcair and Trudeau as a leader.

Generation Z – Those born between 1995 and 2009, these 21^st century teens are totally engrossed with computer devices and have been referred to by some as the “Internet Generation” and are fast becoming potential voters.  For the politician it means a lot of Twittering, Face-booking or what?  No doubt in my mind, if Zers are interested enough and eligible to vote in October, 2015, they will go for Trudeau. 

A Final Thought – When I first started writing this article I was convinced that there was a meaningful connection between social science theories on profiling a population opposite the art of politics.  I was woefully wrong, so what do you think?  I would appreciate your views. 

Flexing Your Muscles can be Dangerous

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 30) May 20, 2014

The big boys are starting to flex some serious muscle in the geo-political arena where there is no referee and there are no Queensberry rules of play.  What makes the current sparring between nations so dangerous is how will the geo-political landscape change?

Putin’s Vision for a New Russia

As outlined last week, Russian President Putin’s prime political objective is to assemble a reconstituted Soviet Union, if not a new tsarist type, Imperial Russia.  Operating under the pretext that Russia was only protecting ethnic Russians in the Ukraine, Mr. Putin was able to annex the autonomous region of Crimea where it is estimated that 90 percent of the population is Russian speaking.  Now the two most eastern regions in eastern Ukraine, the Luhansk and Donetsk districts are under pro-Russian control, have declared independence from the central government in Kiev and will not allow for the national presidential election scheduled for May 25.  Oligarchs in the eastern provinces are not supporting the pro-Russian forces and are asking that they lay down their arms and go back to work.  For Mr. Putin, he has taken a wait-and-see strategy saying that he welcomes the presidential elections and ordered some Russian troops back from the Ukrainian boarder.  I don’t think there is any doubt there will be revolt by some disgruntled rebels, if not civil war in the eastern provinces after May 25’s election.  Mr. Putin will restrain himself from further intervention in the eastern provinces as long as NATO doesn’t get involved.  The big question for Mr. Putin; will he have to back down on his expansionist visions or will he be satisfied with just the Crimea’s annexation?  .           

China’s Bullying Tactics

The Philippines and Vietnam are involved in a standoff with China on the high seas and it appears that there could be war in the South China Sea – for the moment the two sides are using water cannons to express their views and displeasure.  It appears that China has moved a giant oil rig (along with a number of war ships) last month into waters that are claimed by the Filipinos and the Vietnamese.  China’s incursion into the region appears to be a blatant bullying tactic on the part of the People’s Republic of China – as they have done in other territorial disputes in the Asian region.  For the current standoff in the South China Sea the Vice-president of the United States opined to the Chinese authorities:  “China must not undermine security and peace” which to me is a rather weak statement coming from the once undisputed authority on international conduct – how things have changed!

United States in Trouble

Forty fifty years ago there was no question as to who was the world’s economic power house, who was the world’s military superpower, who set the standard of international conduct and who did the policing.  In the same fifty year timeframe “globalization” took hold and again the United States’ corporate giants were the dominant factor in international economic relations.  In 1975 Fortune 500 ranked the world’s largest companies (in terms of revenue) and of the 10 largest, 9 were United States based – the three largest being; Exxon, General Motors and Ford.  In 2013 Fortune 500 top 10 list included 2 US based companies (Wal-Mart was second and Exxon was third) with China having 3 on the top 10 list, Europe having 4 and Japan’s having one.  On top of Fortune’s list was the Royal Dutch Shell company of the Netherlands with close to a half trillion dollars in revenue.  From my perspective it doesn’t take a lot of analysis to conclude that the United States has lost considerable ground when it comes to world economic dominance.   At present the US remains the largest, most significant market for goods and services produced outside its territorial boarders and it will remain so as long as it can continue to borrow money (and go further into debt).  For the United States, the big question is going to be can they turn themselves around and remain a dominant player – at the moment things do not look particularly good.    

Learning from Disaster!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 29) May 13, 2014

Making sense out of this troubled world is not an easy task and for me it always comes down to sorting out a semblance of reality from the propaganda spewed out by politics. 

Putin’s Strategic Attacks on the Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin has only one vision for his Mother Russia, a reconstituted Soviet Union. The president of the Russian Federation feels that by absorbing Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence he will destabilize Western Europe’s influence in a number of other countries where ethnic Russians have gained a relevant foothold. 

In a questionable “referendum” held last March in the autonomous region of Crimea, the vote was in favor of annexation by the Russian Federation.  Mr. Putin was able to absorb the Crimea without any major disturbance in large part because that’s what the people of the Crimea wanted.  A reputable international survey firm estimated that only 12 percent of Crimea residents wanted to be part of a united Ukraine. 

A week ago, the Ukrainian districts of Luhansk and Donetsk voted in questionable referendum – no, it has to go further; an illegal, fraudulent, stacked referendum.  The result of the so called vote suggests that over 90 percent of the population in Luhansk and Donetsk want independence from the central government in Kiev.  The rebel leaders in control of the Luhansk and Donetsk districts are now asking that their districts become a part of the Russian Federation – the rebels are also saying they will not allow for the Ukrainian presidential elections scheduled for the last week of May.  The Pew research group is estimating that in the 11 most eastern provinces of the Ukraine:  45 percent of the population are Russian speaking, 70 percent are in favor of remaining united within Ukraine and 67 percent are unhappy with present government in Kiev.  How President Putin reacts is going to be critical – if he doesn’t take control of the rebels and allow for voting in the presidential there will be civil war – if he allows the “uncontrollable” rebels to maintain control, there will be civil war.  Guess what, there is going to be civil war in the eastern provinces of the Ukraine.

Nigeria, Disgraced and Rightfully So!

The news that close to 300 school girls were taken hostages and held for ransom, if not being sold as wives, slaves or sex objects can only be described as one of the most heinous crimes ever to be documented.  Perpetrated by the extremist Islamic group, Boko Haram is now negotiating “some” of the hostages for the release of imprisoned terrorists.  What is equally disturbing is that Amnesty International is reporting that Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Johnathan could have prevented the hostage taking if the president had taken action earlier.  Surely something has to be done to identify and deal with political leaders that are clearly unfit for office.

Canada Can Learn a Thing or Two

So what can Canada’s political leadership learn from the actions and events as they are unfolding in the Ukraine, Russia and Nigeria?  In my view Canada has a democratic governance system that is second to none in the world, but that does not mean things cannot be improved through more cooperative political leadership in Ottawa and elsewhere – Canada’s future depends on it.