Whispering in the Wind (WITW 31) May 27, 2014
Many years ago I worked as a market analyst for a major manufacturing
firm in Edmonton. In those days I spent untold
hours trying to define and understand the characteristics of a loyal customer
versus the not-so-loyal, potential customer.
Things are not different in politics from what I did in the back rooms
of corporate Alberta – know your customer and understand your potential
customer. Within political parties there
are armies of analysts and advisors who continuously feed politicians platform statements,
strategies and scripted statements, all structured to win the hearts and minds
of a volatile, segmented voting public.
The
Electorate – A Generational Mishmash
Understanding the political electorate is crucial to
winning elections – the trick for politicians is to understand their
constituency of interest and then follow a strategy that lures maximum support
from a very volatile, segmented voting public.
Following is one approach offered by social scientists who define the
Canadian population in terms attitudes and values, by age groups. I’ve addressed this traditional population
segmentation analysis and how it is being dealt with by today’s political
leadership.
War
Generation – Typically the War Generation population is retirement
age. Generally the group has limited
access to computers and are well versed in the trials of the World War II
years. These so called war babies were
heavily influenced by their parents who lived and dealt with the struggles
attached to the Great Depression years. Worthy
to note, Canada’s 65 -74 year olds, as a group has more than doubled in the
last twenty years with experts projecting that in the next twenty years, this
seniors group will make up a quarter of Canada’s population. This reality of an aging population and their
priorities of social security and healthcare is now drawing a lot of attention
from politicians. Relevant for the
politician is the voter participation rate for this age group. In the 2011 federal election, those in the 65
– 74 years category had a voter participation rate of 75.1 percent, higher than
any other age group. Politicians that
ignore the War Generation’s rigid “old fashioned” ways and their priorities
will do so at their peril. From my
perspective Steven Harper has been most successful amongst the federal leaders
in luring the War Generation population into his sphere of influence.
Baby
Boomers – Now approaching retirement age “boomers” are those
born in the decades following the end of World War II and were reared in the
golden age of opportunity and prosperity. The Baby Boomers are now 45-65 years of age. They are considered a generation who were reared
and supported by parents who experienced the Great Depression. The boomers have values that generally include;
strong close family ties, respect for their elders and the law. The boomers generally hold more traditional
values when it comes to marriage and birth control. Baby boomers have a strong sense of paying
off their mortgages as quickly as possible and storing away saving to
supplement their government and private pension plans. Common put-downs range from being part of the
“me” generation with “last century” values.
Baby boomers are very high on security and have generally planned for
their retirement. From a demographic
perspective, those in the 45 to 65 age category constitute about 28 percent of
Canada’s population. Canada’s Baby
Boomers are in control of much of the country’s wealth and influence in
politics. For the politician it is
becoming very evident that the wealth generators are growing older with fewer
people able to fill the anticipated taxation shortfall. I don’t think there is any doubt healthcare
costs are going to escalate in the next twenty years and the politician doesn’t
know how to deal with the likely implosion.
Again Steven Harper comes out on top opposite Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau
but there are some severe reservations about Mr. Harper’s handling of a number of other serious
issues. In my view Baby Boomers will end
up judging whether Mr. Harper is an autocrat or just a strong manager of his
troops. Mr. Mulcair has been ranked as
an excellent parliamentarian but unfortunately belongs to the wrong party. Judgement on Mr. Trudeau is still pending as
Baby Boomers feel that Mr. Trudeau has made some good suggestions but has
gaffed too many times and is just not experienced enough to take over the reins
of power.
Generation
X
– Those born between the early 1960s through to 1980 (now in their early 30s to
their mid-40s) are often labelled the “slacker” generation, uncommitted and unfocused
– the “why me?” generation. “Xers” are
the first generation to experience full commitment to the internet age, high
divorce rates and have been known to change jobs and careers more often because
they expected more. While Xer’s parents
experienced the zoot-zooter and hippy eras, the Xers themselves are keeping
their heads down and don’t want to get involved in anything that might change
themselves or the world. Again I would
rank Mr. Harper the winner, only because Xers don’t want to rock a reasonably
stable ship.
Generation
Y
– Those born between 1981 and 1994 – aged between 20 and 30 years – are
considered lazy, debt-ridden and programmed for instant gratification. They are portrayed as demanding and
unrealistic in their aspirations. Now we
can add “internet-addicted” and “lonely” – they have few friends and are very
disappointed should a friend not live up to expectations, Yers are very
possessive. In my view Yers aren’t happy
with their stage in life so they are looking for a way out but it will be difficult
for them to choose between Mulcair and Trudeau as a leader.
Generation
Z
– Those born between 1995 and 2009, these 21st century teens are
totally engrossed with computer devices and have been referred to by some as
the “Internet Generation” and are fast becoming potential voters. For the politician it means a lot of
Twittering, Face-booking or what? No
doubt in my mind, if Zers are interested enough and eligible to vote in
October, 2015, they will go for Trudeau.
A
Final Thought – When I first started writing this article
I was convinced that there was a meaningful connection between social science theories
on profiling a population opposite the art of politics. I was woefully wrong, so what do you think? I would appreciate your views.
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