Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 197 (November 16, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
Keystone Pipeline Project –
Last week I thought the TransCanada Keystone XL pipeline project was being put on hold for about a year or at least until after the US Presidential election set for November, 2012. It all seems quite logical, President Obama is seeking re-election for the presidency and he has been hassled by some major “celebrity” environmentalists and farmers who don’t want the pipeline crossing the important Ogallala aquifer in the Sandhills region of Nebraska. On Sunday, in Hawaii, Prime Minister Harper expressed his “disappointment” on the US’s decision to delay the pipeline project until 2013 – nevertheless, the Prime Minister was quick to add that he was not concerned about any fundamental shift Canada – US relations and the Keystone pipeline delay was only due to the “political season.” On Monday Premier Alison Redford was in Washington to promote the Keystone pipeline but had to change her emphasis slightly after the US State Department’s announcement – Premier Redford could only acknowledge that the United States’ regulatory process would have to take its course, but her modified message was clear, Alberta was eager and ready to supply bitumen to the Texas Gulf coast refineries. At the same time in Nebraska, Alex Pourbaix, president of TransCanada’s pipeline division announced that his company would re-route the proposed 1,700 mile pipeline to avoid the sensitive Ogallala aquifer and that would only mean another 30 or 40 miles of pipe and one additional piping station. I think Mr. Pourbaix’s announcement came as a surprise to many political types on both sides of the border – but as fluid as the situation is, I still think the final decision on the Keystone Pipeline Project will not be made until 2013.
Prime Minister Harper, Playing Hardball
Prime Minister Harper has to be congratulated on the way he handled the Asia Pacific summit conference in Hawaii and particularly the way the he addressed Canadian issues and concerns with the conference’s host, President Barack Obama of the United States. The PM was amiable and friendly but in my mind, his messages were clear – not only did the Prime Minister outline to President Obama Canada’s concerns and “disappointment” regarding the announced delay in the Keystone pipeline project, Mr. Harper also made clear that Canada should be exempted from any Buy American provisions that have appeared or might appear in the President Obama’s job creation initiatives. Further Mr. Harper expressed Canada’s objection to the political delays attached to the Canada – US security perimeter initiative and to the $5.50 inspection surtax being placed on Canadians traveling into the United States. To add force to the Prime Minister’s foreign policy sentiments, the PM made it clear that circumstances in the United States (particularly the delayed Keystone XL project) is pushing Canada toward the sale of bitumen into Asian markets – at the conference China’s President, Hu Jintao without hesitation extended an invitation to Prime Minister Harper to visit China in 2012. To add further force to what could be a major change in Canada’s “new” foreign policy thrust, Prime Minister Harper has expressed an interest to join the Trans Pacific Partnership group – something the PM did not consider relevant or warrented just a few months ago.
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
Europe Teetering
Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 196 (November 9, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
Euro-Europe Teetering on a Cliff!
From my perspective, what’s going on in Europe is without question a disaster and to say that Europe is now in financial (political) turmoil is an understatement – for the moment, Greece has become the convenient whipping boy but the real question is: can and will the insolvency that is so obvious in Greece spill over to other parts of Europe and yes, spill over into other parts of the world?
A Good European Experiment Gone Sour!
In modern times the idea of having a single, mega European market was first envisioned and crystallized some 50 years ago when six nations (Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands) agreed to a common market concept in 1958 and institutionalized what was then called the European Economic Community. From that year onward the common market concept grew and matured: membership in the European club grew to significant levels; a European parliament was established and disciplined economic cooperation flourished, all accomplished without any suggestion of political or cultural integration. About 12 years ago something quite dramatic happened and is now proving to be disastrous to the original concept of economic cooperation without political integration – in 1999, 17 member states agreed to a basic monetary policy including the use of a single “euro” currency – for me, 1999 was a clear deviation from the community of economic interest strategy and clearly pointed toward more and eventual political integration. Today the European Union is made up of 27 sovereign nations with 17 of those nations operating under what is now known as the euro zone – truly a fractured formulae and in my mind an indicator of financial confusion and political disaster.
Greece, Tip of the Iceberg!
From what I have read about Greece’s population and their political attitudes, it is no wonder that they are in such a financial state, as they are – my understanding is that in the past 10 years the Greek government racked up huge debts that aren’t being addressed through Greece’s taxation system. Added to the confusion is the apparent mindset of many Greeks who feel that taxes are an irritant and should be avoided, after all they are a part of the euro zone and therefore their spending habits, no matter how reckless, will be paid for by others in the euro zone (i.e. France or Germany). Actually Greece is not the “real” problem for the euro zone elite, the problem is that a bailout for Greece means likely bailouts for other euro zone members, most notably Italy (Europe’s third largest economy), Spain, Portugal and possibly others. So how is this Greek, no, European situation to be contained; can the mess be sorted out and can the European Union be saved??? A number of ideas have been put out by the media for discussion – about a month or so back it was suggested that the bonds supporting Greece’s debt be devalued by 50 percent (the banks and other bond holders say no to this, not so much as it relates to the Greek situation but what is likely to happen in other countries such as Italy); another suggestion was to have Greece leave the euro zone and return to their former currency, the Drachma (Greece says no, its their financial comfort zone); a third suggestion is to dissolve the euro zone itself and have each member country of the zone revert back to their past currencies – that is not a bad idea if Europeans want to save their European Union. No matter what strategy is undertaken a key component must include the reining in of their banks so that they truly become national banks that act in the best interest of their “home” authorities.
Any Parallels in Canada?
As Europe struggles with financial chaos and what appears to be an unmanageable debt; Canadian leaders are cautiously patting themselves on their backs and suggesting that Canada’s debt is miniscule when comparing Canada’s strong financial position to the financial weakness what is going on in Europe and the United States. I do agree that Canada’s national debt, as reported in the country’s national accounts, is small but that does not mean Canada is in good financial shape. For a good description of how precarious Canada’s financial situation is, I refer you to the October 24, 2011 issue of MACLEAN’S magazine and its editorial article entitled “Why Ontario is poised to become Canada’s Greece”. Following is the concluding paragraph:
“The sobering truth is that Canada’s largest province is now facing the country’s most troubling debt problem. And the effects of Ontario’s debt will soon be felt right across the country, regardless of how prudently other provinces have managed their finances. Fair or not, we’re all in this together.”
Whispering in the Wind
Euro-Europe Teetering on a Cliff!
From my perspective, what’s going on in Europe is without question a disaster and to say that Europe is now in financial (political) turmoil is an understatement – for the moment, Greece has become the convenient whipping boy but the real question is: can and will the insolvency that is so obvious in Greece spill over to other parts of Europe and yes, spill over into other parts of the world?
A Good European Experiment Gone Sour!
In modern times the idea of having a single, mega European market was first envisioned and crystallized some 50 years ago when six nations (Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands) agreed to a common market concept in 1958 and institutionalized what was then called the European Economic Community. From that year onward the common market concept grew and matured: membership in the European club grew to significant levels; a European parliament was established and disciplined economic cooperation flourished, all accomplished without any suggestion of political or cultural integration. About 12 years ago something quite dramatic happened and is now proving to be disastrous to the original concept of economic cooperation without political integration – in 1999, 17 member states agreed to a basic monetary policy including the use of a single “euro” currency – for me, 1999 was a clear deviation from the community of economic interest strategy and clearly pointed toward more and eventual political integration. Today the European Union is made up of 27 sovereign nations with 17 of those nations operating under what is now known as the euro zone – truly a fractured formulae and in my mind an indicator of financial confusion and political disaster.
Greece, Tip of the Iceberg!
From what I have read about Greece’s population and their political attitudes, it is no wonder that they are in such a financial state, as they are – my understanding is that in the past 10 years the Greek government racked up huge debts that aren’t being addressed through Greece’s taxation system. Added to the confusion is the apparent mindset of many Greeks who feel that taxes are an irritant and should be avoided, after all they are a part of the euro zone and therefore their spending habits, no matter how reckless, will be paid for by others in the euro zone (i.e. France or Germany). Actually Greece is not the “real” problem for the euro zone elite, the problem is that a bailout for Greece means likely bailouts for other euro zone members, most notably Italy (Europe’s third largest economy), Spain, Portugal and possibly others. So how is this Greek, no, European situation to be contained; can the mess be sorted out and can the European Union be saved??? A number of ideas have been put out by the media for discussion – about a month or so back it was suggested that the bonds supporting Greece’s debt be devalued by 50 percent (the banks and other bond holders say no to this, not so much as it relates to the Greek situation but what is likely to happen in other countries such as Italy); another suggestion was to have Greece leave the euro zone and return to their former currency, the Drachma (Greece says no, its their financial comfort zone); a third suggestion is to dissolve the euro zone itself and have each member country of the zone revert back to their past currencies – that is not a bad idea if Europeans want to save their European Union. No matter what strategy is undertaken a key component must include the reining in of their banks so that they truly become national banks that act in the best interest of their “home” authorities.
Any Parallels in Canada?
As Europe struggles with financial chaos and what appears to be an unmanageable debt; Canadian leaders are cautiously patting themselves on their backs and suggesting that Canada’s debt is miniscule when comparing Canada’s strong financial position to the financial weakness what is going on in Europe and the United States. I do agree that Canada’s national debt, as reported in the country’s national accounts, is small but that does not mean Canada is in good financial shape. For a good description of how precarious Canada’s financial situation is, I refer you to the October 24, 2011 issue of MACLEAN’S magazine and its editorial article entitled “Why Ontario is poised to become Canada’s Greece”. Following is the concluding paragraph:
“The sobering truth is that Canada’s largest province is now facing the country’s most troubling debt problem. And the effects of Ontario’s debt will soon be felt right across the country, regardless of how prudently other provinces have managed their finances. Fair or not, we’re all in this together.”
Redford Stumbles, or was Tripped
Smoky Lake Signal Article 194 (October 26, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
Redford Stumbles, or Was Tripped?
Less than a month ago, when Alison Redford was first elected leader of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party many, if not most Albertans viewed her election as a refreshing change from the status quo – after all she did run her leadership campaign on a platform of “change” and transparency – in my view, she continues to opine a sincere desire to do things differently. Alison Redford was sworn in as Alberta’s 14th Premier on October 7 and a week later formed her first, smaller cabinet team – a cabinet that reflects; regional representation, youth, experience and both, right and left wing perspectives in Alberta’s “progressive conservative” movement – no question, a well balanced cabinet team. So you would think that Premier Redford would be given some sort of a honeymoon so she could get more comfortable with her cabinet appointments; allow some time for her to get into the swing of things; and a little time to test her skills in the art of governing, delegating and agenda setting – well she wasn’t given the luxury of a honeymoon period and in real time, things have blown up in her government’s face, blown up in spades! To recap the current situation; last Friday morning it was reported that former leadership contender Ted Morton, now Alberta’s Minister of Energy sent a letter to the Alberta Utilities Commission indicating the government was reviewing three proposed electric transmission projects in the Edmonton area and that any decisions regarding these three projects would have to be delayed until further notice. Later that same Friday, Premier Redford said in Calgary that there was a “miscommunication” regarding one of the projects and the Alberta Utilities Commission could release its decision on the “Heartland” project based on their time schedule. Without going into the merits or non-merits of the electric power generation and transmission issue; and there is a lot to be said about how the former Stelmach government handled the electricity transmission question; what is seriously bothersome is how “miscommunication” could occur between possibly the two most senior cabinet people in the Alberta government – surely such a controversial question would involve cabinet discussion and at the very least, would have several senior civil servants around to advise on the specific wording of such an important directive. I’m sure Albertans haven’t heard the last of what happened last Friday and I do think Premier Redford deserves a better deal than what she is getting. For the moment I am reminded of a quote from one of William Shakespeare’s plays: “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.”
United States Protectionism –
Protectionist sentiments have again arisen in the United States and I think the situation is more serious for Canada than it was a few years back. US President Barack Obama announced last month that he wants to implement a $447 billion job plan that includes “Buy American” provisions – the clause, as it presently stands, prohibits the use of foreign made iron, steel and other manufactured goods in all of the program’s public works projects. Almost immediately Prime Minister Harper’s office issued a statement saying that the government will “defend Canadian interests” and added that if the Buy American provisions are fully implemented and Canada is not excluded, the Canadian economy could be negatively affected and growth in Canada stalled. The Canadian government was successful in 2009 and obtained a wavier from similar Buy American provision in the United States, but things are quite different today – first the US economy is in much worse shape than it was in 2009; second Barack Obama is seeking re-election in November, 2012 and he doesn’t want to go against the protectionist mood in the US where over 90 percent of the electorate is supporting the Buy American provisions.
Whispering in the Wind
Redford Stumbles, or Was Tripped?
Less than a month ago, when Alison Redford was first elected leader of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party many, if not most Albertans viewed her election as a refreshing change from the status quo – after all she did run her leadership campaign on a platform of “change” and transparency – in my view, she continues to opine a sincere desire to do things differently. Alison Redford was sworn in as Alberta’s 14th Premier on October 7 and a week later formed her first, smaller cabinet team – a cabinet that reflects; regional representation, youth, experience and both, right and left wing perspectives in Alberta’s “progressive conservative” movement – no question, a well balanced cabinet team. So you would think that Premier Redford would be given some sort of a honeymoon so she could get more comfortable with her cabinet appointments; allow some time for her to get into the swing of things; and a little time to test her skills in the art of governing, delegating and agenda setting – well she wasn’t given the luxury of a honeymoon period and in real time, things have blown up in her government’s face, blown up in spades! To recap the current situation; last Friday morning it was reported that former leadership contender Ted Morton, now Alberta’s Minister of Energy sent a letter to the Alberta Utilities Commission indicating the government was reviewing three proposed electric transmission projects in the Edmonton area and that any decisions regarding these three projects would have to be delayed until further notice. Later that same Friday, Premier Redford said in Calgary that there was a “miscommunication” regarding one of the projects and the Alberta Utilities Commission could release its decision on the “Heartland” project based on their time schedule. Without going into the merits or non-merits of the electric power generation and transmission issue; and there is a lot to be said about how the former Stelmach government handled the electricity transmission question; what is seriously bothersome is how “miscommunication” could occur between possibly the two most senior cabinet people in the Alberta government – surely such a controversial question would involve cabinet discussion and at the very least, would have several senior civil servants around to advise on the specific wording of such an important directive. I’m sure Albertans haven’t heard the last of what happened last Friday and I do think Premier Redford deserves a better deal than what she is getting. For the moment I am reminded of a quote from one of William Shakespeare’s plays: “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.”
United States Protectionism –
Protectionist sentiments have again arisen in the United States and I think the situation is more serious for Canada than it was a few years back. US President Barack Obama announced last month that he wants to implement a $447 billion job plan that includes “Buy American” provisions – the clause, as it presently stands, prohibits the use of foreign made iron, steel and other manufactured goods in all of the program’s public works projects. Almost immediately Prime Minister Harper’s office issued a statement saying that the government will “defend Canadian interests” and added that if the Buy American provisions are fully implemented and Canada is not excluded, the Canadian economy could be negatively affected and growth in Canada stalled. The Canadian government was successful in 2009 and obtained a wavier from similar Buy American provision in the United States, but things are quite different today – first the US economy is in much worse shape than it was in 2009; second Barack Obama is seeking re-election in November, 2012 and he doesn’t want to go against the protectionist mood in the US where over 90 percent of the electorate is supporting the Buy American provisions.
The Redford Team
Smoky Signal Article No. 193 (October 19, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
The Redford Team –
Last week Premier Redford announced her cabinet team and an interesting team it is! The two people that I thought deserved seats at the cabinet table made the cut – Jeff Johnson is now Minister of Infrastructure and Doug Griffiths is the new Minister of Municipal Affairs; both are important, well deserved appointments. If there were any surprises in the cabinet appointments, I have got to mention Ted Morton (now the Minister of Energy) and Ron Liepert (now the Minister of Finance); both received very senior cabinet posts and for me, it demonstrates Premier Redford’s intention to see her cabinet become a “big tent” cabinet that reflects a full range of views in the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party movement – others have suggested it proves a Sun-tzu adage: “keep you friends close and your enemies closer.” A further point regarding the cabinet appointments; Premier Redford offered the names of her cabinet members in an “order of precedence” which is a ranking of the appointments, some call it a political pecking order – if you identify Premier Redford as number 1 in the 21 seat cabinet and Deputy Premier, Doug Horner number 2; Ted Morton is number 4; Ron Liepert (7); Ray Danyluk (15); Jeff Johnson (16); Doug Griffiths (17) – some say that the ranking is irrelevant and is nothing more than some sort of honor role – to me it means that people like Jeff Johnson and Doug Griffiths have to be a little bit more cautious when preparing and presenting ideas in the cabinet room – said another way, the rookies in cabinet (like Jeff Johnson and Doug Griffiths) will have to earn their stripes in what is possibly the most exclusive club in Alison Redford’s government.
Congratulations to Jeff Johnson –
I can’t let this week’s column go by without offering congratulations to Athabasca-Redwater MLA, Jeff Johnson and his appointment to Premier Redford’s cabinet as Minister of Infrastructure. So what does it mean being the Minister of Infrastructure? Simply put and taken from a government web-page: “Alberta Infrastructure is responsible for infrastructure planning, and building and managing government-owned infrastructure. [The] ministry works with other ministries to ensure Albertans have schools, hospitals and other public infrastructure necessary to meet the needs of a growing economy and population.” If that isn’t enough, Jeff Johnson has some added responsibilities: Jeff Johnson is now responsible for the Oil Sands Secretariat; Jeff Johnson is Vice-Chair of Treasury Board; Jeff Johnson is Political Minister for Northern Alberta on the government’s Operations Committee; and Jeff Johnson is a member of the government’s Finance Committee. As a rookie cabinet minister, Jeff Johnson has an awesome set of responsibilities and he will face many, many significant challenges – you know what, I think Jeff Johnson is up to it. Nevertheless, he is going to need the support and patience from all of us in the Athabasca-Redwater constituency and if we give him the support he needs, Smoky Lake, the Athabasca-Redwater constituency and Alberta will benefit from Jeff Johnson’s work, commitment and dedication – congratulations and good luck to you Jeff!
Alison Redford, You’ve Got Six Months –
Along with announcing a new set of cabinet responsibilities, Premier Redford also announced a new committee structure, a new way of doing the government’s business. Premier Redford said: “This cabinet reflects what change looks like. It’s a team that’s committed to listening to Albertans, and getting to work right away on bringing the change Albertans want and expect.” In my view it is all well and good to have change of faces in the cabinet room and a committee structure that is different from past administrations, but I think Albertans want to see action on at least four priority areas: a more affordable, caring public healthcare system; a more efficient public education system; a meaningful economic development and diversification strategy; and a government that protects its citizens from too much government. To address these monumental issues, it is going to take some time and a lot of patience, something not available to the new Redford government – my sense is that the PC Alberta government has got about a year before the next election and that means that Alison Redford and her new cabinet have about six to eight months to show what “change” is all about.
Whispering in the Wind
The Redford Team –
Last week Premier Redford announced her cabinet team and an interesting team it is! The two people that I thought deserved seats at the cabinet table made the cut – Jeff Johnson is now Minister of Infrastructure and Doug Griffiths is the new Minister of Municipal Affairs; both are important, well deserved appointments. If there were any surprises in the cabinet appointments, I have got to mention Ted Morton (now the Minister of Energy) and Ron Liepert (now the Minister of Finance); both received very senior cabinet posts and for me, it demonstrates Premier Redford’s intention to see her cabinet become a “big tent” cabinet that reflects a full range of views in the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party movement – others have suggested it proves a Sun-tzu adage: “keep you friends close and your enemies closer.” A further point regarding the cabinet appointments; Premier Redford offered the names of her cabinet members in an “order of precedence” which is a ranking of the appointments, some call it a political pecking order – if you identify Premier Redford as number 1 in the 21 seat cabinet and Deputy Premier, Doug Horner number 2; Ted Morton is number 4; Ron Liepert (7); Ray Danyluk (15); Jeff Johnson (16); Doug Griffiths (17) – some say that the ranking is irrelevant and is nothing more than some sort of honor role – to me it means that people like Jeff Johnson and Doug Griffiths have to be a little bit more cautious when preparing and presenting ideas in the cabinet room – said another way, the rookies in cabinet (like Jeff Johnson and Doug Griffiths) will have to earn their stripes in what is possibly the most exclusive club in Alison Redford’s government.
Congratulations to Jeff Johnson –
I can’t let this week’s column go by without offering congratulations to Athabasca-Redwater MLA, Jeff Johnson and his appointment to Premier Redford’s cabinet as Minister of Infrastructure. So what does it mean being the Minister of Infrastructure? Simply put and taken from a government web-page: “Alberta Infrastructure is responsible for infrastructure planning, and building and managing government-owned infrastructure. [The] ministry works with other ministries to ensure Albertans have schools, hospitals and other public infrastructure necessary to meet the needs of a growing economy and population.” If that isn’t enough, Jeff Johnson has some added responsibilities: Jeff Johnson is now responsible for the Oil Sands Secretariat; Jeff Johnson is Vice-Chair of Treasury Board; Jeff Johnson is Political Minister for Northern Alberta on the government’s Operations Committee; and Jeff Johnson is a member of the government’s Finance Committee. As a rookie cabinet minister, Jeff Johnson has an awesome set of responsibilities and he will face many, many significant challenges – you know what, I think Jeff Johnson is up to it. Nevertheless, he is going to need the support and patience from all of us in the Athabasca-Redwater constituency and if we give him the support he needs, Smoky Lake, the Athabasca-Redwater constituency and Alberta will benefit from Jeff Johnson’s work, commitment and dedication – congratulations and good luck to you Jeff!
Alison Redford, You’ve Got Six Months –
Along with announcing a new set of cabinet responsibilities, Premier Redford also announced a new committee structure, a new way of doing the government’s business. Premier Redford said: “This cabinet reflects what change looks like. It’s a team that’s committed to listening to Albertans, and getting to work right away on bringing the change Albertans want and expect.” In my view it is all well and good to have change of faces in the cabinet room and a committee structure that is different from past administrations, but I think Albertans want to see action on at least four priority areas: a more affordable, caring public healthcare system; a more efficient public education system; a meaningful economic development and diversification strategy; and a government that protects its citizens from too much government. To address these monumental issues, it is going to take some time and a lot of patience, something not available to the new Redford government – my sense is that the PC Alberta government has got about a year before the next election and that means that Alison Redford and her new cabinet have about six to eight months to show what “change” is all about.
Thursday, 6 October 2011
Congratulations To Alison Redford - Alberta's "new" Premier
Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 191
(October 5, 2011)
Congratulations To Alison Redford - Alberta's "new" Premier
The province's Progressive Conservative party's leadership race was settled in the wee hours of Sunday, October 2 ... and the winner, Alison Redford. Today, not only is Alison Redford the leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party, she is also Premier-Designate and soon to be Premier Redford, Province of Alberta. Congratulations goes out to Alison Redford on her win and from my hopeful, humble perspective, there is a possibility that she might re-invigorate the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party! As Alison Redford ponders a new cabinet structure along with the concurrent disappointments, threats and challenges attached to a competitive race for leadership, let me offer some recommendations to the Premier-Designate, for what its worth: First, the importance of party unity has got to be paramount. Ms. Redford has been branded as being on the "progressive" side of the progressive conservative movement, so if the Progressive Conservative Party is to function as a "big tent" movement, then Premier-Designate Redford will have to garner support from the right and that means a senior cabinet position to someone sitting in the legislature that has a lot of respect and has views that are on the right side of the progressive conservative movement - there are a number of contenders.
Second, the rural voter is still a very important component of the progressive conservative movement in Alberta, in terms of seats as well as philosophy - that means a rural, small business development person who has the party leader's philosophy on "property rights" - one candidate comes to mind is Athabasca - Redwater MLA, Jeff Johnson who has already shown experience in his work on Treasury Board. Two other names come to mind that are worthy of consideration for cabinet responsibility - obviously Doug Horner needs top consideration for a senior cabinet posting and secondly Doug Griffiths who has youth, vigor and commitment that is second to none.
My last suggestion (at this point in time) is to recommend a brand that is different from the "change" theme - the "change" theme was the most appropriate label to win a leadership race, but Alberta now has an Alison Redford Administration and needs an appropriate action label - one thought is: Let's Build Alberta Together! or: Building Alberta Together!
A Final Assessment on the Candidates:
Everybody has an opinion on why Alison Redford won the leadership race; why Gary Mar wasn't able to turn an impressive lead toward victory on the first ballot, only to go down to defeat in the second ballot; and Doug Horner's inability to attract more than just rural voters in northern Alberta. My take on these three candidates and their campaigns:
Alison Redford:
Prior to the first ballot I wrote that Alison Redford was "clear, articulate and knows her stuff...has a chance if her campaign can show herself to be strong enough to fight the big boys in Calgary...." Nothing more needs to be said, she was able to show strength and fortitude and she will go down in history as becoming Alberta's first female premier.
Gary Mar:
Gary Mar made a couple of poor judgment calls while holding senior positions in the Alberta government and these screw-ups did have an impact on Mr. Mar's chances, but his biggest mistake in the campaign was when he suggested that more medical services could/should/might be considered for private sector delivery - the public interpreted his poor judgment mistakes and his musings on healthcare as; "Anybody but Mar" and Gary Mar is advocating "a two-tiered healthcare system" which to the general public is a no-no. Nevertheless Mr. Mar did maintain solid support in many constituencies, which should not be ignored by Premier Redford.
Doug Horner:
Doug Horner wasn't able to penetrate the cities and the rural constituencies in southern Alberta - in general Albertans didn't want to see another rural, Stelmach-type person in the Premier's chair. I think Premier Redford would be ill-advised to ignore Doug Horner's experience and capabilities in Alberta's rural constituencies.
A Final Assessment on the Leadership Race, the Numbers:
Now that all the ballots have been counted and a winner declared it is worth offering a "brief" final assessment of the election results. Gary Mar was the obvious front runner in the first ballot vote and received 41 percent of the votes cast - Alison Redford received 20 percent and Doug Horner got 15 percent. In the second ballot on October 1st Gary Mar got 43 percent of the votes; Alison Redford jumped up to 37 percent and Doug Horner moved up to 20 percent of the vote. Since none of the three candidates received a 50 percent plus 1 vote count; Doug Horner's second place votes kicked in and the final vote count for Gary Mar was 25,491 compared to Alison Redford's 37,104, making Alison Redford the victor with 51 percent of the vote.
The "Election" Process
For a number of Albertans, the "election" of Alberta's 14th Premier, Province of Alberta was a little confusing (particularly for some seniors) but when you think about it, the two stage "preferential ballot" process is more efficient and in some ways a timesaver - what bothered me was the length of the campaign itself, it was far too long - something like 8 months when you consider that Ed Stelmach announced in January his intention to resign as Premier, Province of Alberta - and that's why I labeled the whole "election" thing as too drawn out and a lot of Oh-hum - only in the last month or so did we hear and see a few sparks of interest. To me, some of the blame for low voter turnout rests with the major city newspapers and TV stations, they didn't give the coverage such an important event warranted - from my perspective, none of the leadership debates were covered properly by the media and the internet coverage was dismal, even on election night.
(October 5, 2011)
Congratulations To Alison Redford - Alberta's "new" Premier
The province's Progressive Conservative party's leadership race was settled in the wee hours of Sunday, October 2 ... and the winner, Alison Redford. Today, not only is Alison Redford the leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party, she is also Premier-Designate and soon to be Premier Redford, Province of Alberta. Congratulations goes out to Alison Redford on her win and from my hopeful, humble perspective, there is a possibility that she might re-invigorate the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party! As Alison Redford ponders a new cabinet structure along with the concurrent disappointments, threats and challenges attached to a competitive race for leadership, let me offer some recommendations to the Premier-Designate, for what its worth: First, the importance of party unity has got to be paramount. Ms. Redford has been branded as being on the "progressive" side of the progressive conservative movement, so if the Progressive Conservative Party is to function as a "big tent" movement, then Premier-Designate Redford will have to garner support from the right and that means a senior cabinet position to someone sitting in the legislature that has a lot of respect and has views that are on the right side of the progressive conservative movement - there are a number of contenders.
Second, the rural voter is still a very important component of the progressive conservative movement in Alberta, in terms of seats as well as philosophy - that means a rural, small business development person who has the party leader's philosophy on "property rights" - one candidate comes to mind is Athabasca - Redwater MLA, Jeff Johnson who has already shown experience in his work on Treasury Board. Two other names come to mind that are worthy of consideration for cabinet responsibility - obviously Doug Horner needs top consideration for a senior cabinet posting and secondly Doug Griffiths who has youth, vigor and commitment that is second to none.
My last suggestion (at this point in time) is to recommend a brand that is different from the "change" theme - the "change" theme was the most appropriate label to win a leadership race, but Alberta now has an Alison Redford Administration and needs an appropriate action label - one thought is: Let's Build Alberta Together! or: Building Alberta Together!
A Final Assessment on the Candidates:
Everybody has an opinion on why Alison Redford won the leadership race; why Gary Mar wasn't able to turn an impressive lead toward victory on the first ballot, only to go down to defeat in the second ballot; and Doug Horner's inability to attract more than just rural voters in northern Alberta. My take on these three candidates and their campaigns:
Alison Redford:
Prior to the first ballot I wrote that Alison Redford was "clear, articulate and knows her stuff...has a chance if her campaign can show herself to be strong enough to fight the big boys in Calgary...." Nothing more needs to be said, she was able to show strength and fortitude and she will go down in history as becoming Alberta's first female premier.
Gary Mar:
Gary Mar made a couple of poor judgment calls while holding senior positions in the Alberta government and these screw-ups did have an impact on Mr. Mar's chances, but his biggest mistake in the campaign was when he suggested that more medical services could/should/might be considered for private sector delivery - the public interpreted his poor judgment mistakes and his musings on healthcare as; "Anybody but Mar" and Gary Mar is advocating "a two-tiered healthcare system" which to the general public is a no-no. Nevertheless Mr. Mar did maintain solid support in many constituencies, which should not be ignored by Premier Redford.
Doug Horner:
Doug Horner wasn't able to penetrate the cities and the rural constituencies in southern Alberta - in general Albertans didn't want to see another rural, Stelmach-type person in the Premier's chair. I think Premier Redford would be ill-advised to ignore Doug Horner's experience and capabilities in Alberta's rural constituencies.
A Final Assessment on the Leadership Race, the Numbers:
Now that all the ballots have been counted and a winner declared it is worth offering a "brief" final assessment of the election results. Gary Mar was the obvious front runner in the first ballot vote and received 41 percent of the votes cast - Alison Redford received 20 percent and Doug Horner got 15 percent. In the second ballot on October 1st Gary Mar got 43 percent of the votes; Alison Redford jumped up to 37 percent and Doug Horner moved up to 20 percent of the vote. Since none of the three candidates received a 50 percent plus 1 vote count; Doug Horner's second place votes kicked in and the final vote count for Gary Mar was 25,491 compared to Alison Redford's 37,104, making Alison Redford the victor with 51 percent of the vote.
The "Election" Process
For a number of Albertans, the "election" of Alberta's 14th Premier, Province of Alberta was a little confusing (particularly for some seniors) but when you think about it, the two stage "preferential ballot" process is more efficient and in some ways a timesaver - what bothered me was the length of the campaign itself, it was far too long - something like 8 months when you consider that Ed Stelmach announced in January his intention to resign as Premier, Province of Alberta - and that's why I labeled the whole "election" thing as too drawn out and a lot of Oh-hum - only in the last month or so did we hear and see a few sparks of interest. To me, some of the blame for low voter turnout rests with the major city newspapers and TV stations, they didn't give the coverage such an important event warranted - from my perspective, none of the leadership debates were covered properly by the media and the internet coverage was dismal, even on election night.
Thursday, 22 September 2011
Alberta PC Election
Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 189 (September 21, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
For me, political elections are a time of excitement and anticipation - I always enjoy discussing results and consequences of those results as they unfold, and of course, who or which party might come out on top. At times, I have been known to place a friendly wager on election results and of course it's always fodder for my column - let's hope I don't have to "eat" any of my words for this week's assessment as things are changing by the hour and my publication deadline is fast approaching. Last Saturday's PC leadership contest is no exception to my rule of expressing my personal views as clearly as possible, so here's my take on what happened in the last couple of days and what might unfold in the next week or two:
Of The Six, There Are Now Three -
Of the six original candidates for the Premier, Province of Alberta, three won entry into the second ballot vote set for October 1. Last Saturday, Gary Mar became the clear leader right from the start of the vote count with Doug Horner, Ted Morton and Alison Redford see-sawing throughout the night for the number two and three spots. In the end Gary Mar got 41 percent of the vote (24,195 votes); Alison Redford got close to 20 percent with 11,129 votes and Doug Horner got 15 per cent or 8,635 votes - the remaining 25 percent of the votes went to Doug Griffiths (3 percent), Ted Morton (12 percent) and Rick Orman (10 percent). In my view Gary Mar got respectable support from voters throughout the province, winning over his competitors in 52 of Alberta's 83 constituencies and showing exceptional strength in Edmonton's 18 constituencies - one close observer has estimated that Mar received close to 60 percent of the Edmonton area vote. Alison Redford received a smaller vote count but garnered respectable counts throughout many constituencies in the province with good support coming from southern constituencies. Doug Horner's strength was without question in the northern constituencies - in the Lac La Biche-St. Paul Constituency Mr. Horner got over 80 percent of the vote and in Athabasca-Redwater he got 56 percent - Mr. Horner had poor showings in a number of southern constituencies (particularly in the Calgary area where in some locations his vote count was in the single digits).
Successful Strategies, Unsuccessful Strategies -
In my view, Mr. Mar executed an impressive campaign strategy; a strategy that came close to a first ballot win - some have said that getting targeted groups out to vote for him was a particularly successful tactic in Mar's campaign and that made all the difference in the world for his provincial vote count. Doug Horner's strategic failure was that he wasn't able to energize rural voters in southern Alberta, an energy that he clearly had in the northern part of the province - also he couldn't get any meaningful support in either of the major cities - for me it means that Doug Horner was branded to be too rural - the same type of brand given to Ed Stelmach in his leadership campaign days. Alison Redford's campaign strategy was to get onto the second ballot - I can't figure out how she did it but she was successful and came out as a clear second place finisher, although a distant second place. Alison Redford is smart; clear in her policy stances and voiced a number of worthwhile ideas during the leadership debates - so what does Redford have to do over the next two weeks, if she wants to win Alberta's top political job? In my view, Alison Redford has to implement a strategy that excites a lot of "new" voters in the province and those "new" voters have to get out and vote for her on October 1 - but there is more, she needs to garner strong support from the candidates that lost in the first ballot and convince their voter base to get out a vote for her and she still needs to do more, she needs to somehow negotiate with Doug Horner supporters to put Alison Redford as their second choice preference on the October 1 ballot - not only is the process a little confusing it is a real long shot for Alison Redford. Also, Doug Horner, who placed third in the first ballot vote, will have to use an identical vote getting strategy as recommended for Redford, if he is to have a realistic chance to secure Alberta's top political job. Things have become more difficult for both Alison Redford and Doug Horner; Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Doug Griffiths publicly endorsed Gary Mar and the Mar bid to become Alberta's next premier - this development has added to Gary Mar's momentum and has made the leadership aspirations of both Alison Redford or Doug Horner virtually impossible to grasp within a two week period. What does all this complexity and confusion mean??? - It means a lot political maneuvering by the leadership candidates and a lot of serious thinking by those who want to maintain party unity - and that means at all costs, avoid the appearance of party division and acrimony within the leadership candidate camps - most important it means; either a quick endorsement of Gary Mar by all the candidates or make the October 1 ballot a two person race - Gary Mar opposite either Alison Redford or Doug Horner, but not both - and it all has to happen soon, in the next few days and well before October 1 - my bet all the candidates (both winners and losers) are going to end up and endorsing Gary Mar as Alberta's Premier-elect.
A Footnote - The Real Threat to PC Alberta!
It is worth mentioning the failure strategy of candidate Ted Morton and his inability to secure a slot on the second ballot - a strategic failure that could very well have ominous implications on the whole PC Alberta Party and the future of the "progressive conservative" movement in Alberta. Mr. Morton was the candidate who clearly indicated that he was the only candidate able to fight off the threats posed by the Wildrose Party and bring wayward progressive conservatives back into PC Alberta's camp - he was quite successful in his advocacy and was branded as such, but ended up unsuccessful in getting those "wayward" right-wing-voters out to vote for him - in my view it meant that a good number of right-wing conservatives are now comfortable with Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party and they simply didn't get out and vote for Ted Morton - if my logic is correct it could explain why the overall turnout on Saturday was about half what it was in the last PC Alberta leadership race and that means serious problems for Alberta's new premier and PC Alberta.
Whispering in the Wind
For me, political elections are a time of excitement and anticipation - I always enjoy discussing results and consequences of those results as they unfold, and of course, who or which party might come out on top. At times, I have been known to place a friendly wager on election results and of course it's always fodder for my column - let's hope I don't have to "eat" any of my words for this week's assessment as things are changing by the hour and my publication deadline is fast approaching. Last Saturday's PC leadership contest is no exception to my rule of expressing my personal views as clearly as possible, so here's my take on what happened in the last couple of days and what might unfold in the next week or two:
Of The Six, There Are Now Three -
Of the six original candidates for the Premier, Province of Alberta, three won entry into the second ballot vote set for October 1. Last Saturday, Gary Mar became the clear leader right from the start of the vote count with Doug Horner, Ted Morton and Alison Redford see-sawing throughout the night for the number two and three spots. In the end Gary Mar got 41 percent of the vote (24,195 votes); Alison Redford got close to 20 percent with 11,129 votes and Doug Horner got 15 per cent or 8,635 votes - the remaining 25 percent of the votes went to Doug Griffiths (3 percent), Ted Morton (12 percent) and Rick Orman (10 percent). In my view Gary Mar got respectable support from voters throughout the province, winning over his competitors in 52 of Alberta's 83 constituencies and showing exceptional strength in Edmonton's 18 constituencies - one close observer has estimated that Mar received close to 60 percent of the Edmonton area vote. Alison Redford received a smaller vote count but garnered respectable counts throughout many constituencies in the province with good support coming from southern constituencies. Doug Horner's strength was without question in the northern constituencies - in the Lac La Biche-St. Paul Constituency Mr. Horner got over 80 percent of the vote and in Athabasca-Redwater he got 56 percent - Mr. Horner had poor showings in a number of southern constituencies (particularly in the Calgary area where in some locations his vote count was in the single digits).
Successful Strategies, Unsuccessful Strategies -
In my view, Mr. Mar executed an impressive campaign strategy; a strategy that came close to a first ballot win - some have said that getting targeted groups out to vote for him was a particularly successful tactic in Mar's campaign and that made all the difference in the world for his provincial vote count. Doug Horner's strategic failure was that he wasn't able to energize rural voters in southern Alberta, an energy that he clearly had in the northern part of the province - also he couldn't get any meaningful support in either of the major cities - for me it means that Doug Horner was branded to be too rural - the same type of brand given to Ed Stelmach in his leadership campaign days. Alison Redford's campaign strategy was to get onto the second ballot - I can't figure out how she did it but she was successful and came out as a clear second place finisher, although a distant second place. Alison Redford is smart; clear in her policy stances and voiced a number of worthwhile ideas during the leadership debates - so what does Redford have to do over the next two weeks, if she wants to win Alberta's top political job? In my view, Alison Redford has to implement a strategy that excites a lot of "new" voters in the province and those "new" voters have to get out and vote for her on October 1 - but there is more, she needs to garner strong support from the candidates that lost in the first ballot and convince their voter base to get out a vote for her and she still needs to do more, she needs to somehow negotiate with Doug Horner supporters to put Alison Redford as their second choice preference on the October 1 ballot - not only is the process a little confusing it is a real long shot for Alison Redford. Also, Doug Horner, who placed third in the first ballot vote, will have to use an identical vote getting strategy as recommended for Redford, if he is to have a realistic chance to secure Alberta's top political job. Things have become more difficult for both Alison Redford and Doug Horner; Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Doug Griffiths publicly endorsed Gary Mar and the Mar bid to become Alberta's next premier - this development has added to Gary Mar's momentum and has made the leadership aspirations of both Alison Redford or Doug Horner virtually impossible to grasp within a two week period. What does all this complexity and confusion mean??? - It means a lot political maneuvering by the leadership candidates and a lot of serious thinking by those who want to maintain party unity - and that means at all costs, avoid the appearance of party division and acrimony within the leadership candidate camps - most important it means; either a quick endorsement of Gary Mar by all the candidates or make the October 1 ballot a two person race - Gary Mar opposite either Alison Redford or Doug Horner, but not both - and it all has to happen soon, in the next few days and well before October 1 - my bet all the candidates (both winners and losers) are going to end up and endorsing Gary Mar as Alberta's Premier-elect.
A Footnote - The Real Threat to PC Alberta!
It is worth mentioning the failure strategy of candidate Ted Morton and his inability to secure a slot on the second ballot - a strategic failure that could very well have ominous implications on the whole PC Alberta Party and the future of the "progressive conservative" movement in Alberta. Mr. Morton was the candidate who clearly indicated that he was the only candidate able to fight off the threats posed by the Wildrose Party and bring wayward progressive conservatives back into PC Alberta's camp - he was quite successful in his advocacy and was branded as such, but ended up unsuccessful in getting those "wayward" right-wing-voters out to vote for him - in my view it meant that a good number of right-wing conservatives are now comfortable with Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party and they simply didn't get out and vote for Ted Morton - if my logic is correct it could explain why the overall turnout on Saturday was about half what it was in the last PC Alberta leadership race and that means serious problems for Alberta's new premier and PC Alberta.
Alberta - Interesting Times
Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 188 (September 14, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
Politically speaking, Albertans are living in some interesting times:
PC Alberta First Ballot Vote - September 17
PC Alberta members do have an awesome responsibility on Saturday, September 17 - voting for one of six candidates seeking the Alberta PC leadership job (and Premier, Province of Alberta). And if none of the six candidates wins a clear 50 percent of the vote - the PC party members will make a preference choice (first and second choice of the top three candidates) on Saturday, October 1. For those wanting to vote at the Smoky Lake poll on Saturday September 17 (at the Ukrainian National Hall between 9:00am - 7:00pm) please take note of the following requirement: be a Canadian citizen; present a 2011 PC Alberta membership card; two pieces of identification that indicates residence in the Athabasca - Redwater constituency.
From Six to Three?
The election of Alberta's next premier has moved into the first phase of a two phase election process - most political observers have suggested that none of the six candidates will get 50 percent of the vote so a second ballot on October 1 is likely. In my view the Alberta PC leadership campaign has to a large extent been an Oh-Hum campaign with only one or two of the six showing the least amount of interest or passion to be leader - in some cases some of the candidates think it is their political birthright to be Premier - let's hope Albertans will see some sparks fly over the next couple of weeks. Below is a thumbnail sketch of the six candidates and how I think they've faired on the campaign trail:
Doug Griffiths: Too young and inexperienced; watch out, he'll be a force in ten years; interesting to see who he supports for the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Gary Mar: Was front runner; made a bad mistake on suggesting two-tier health care system (I think he was mis-understood); will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Doug Horner: Has a lot of support in rural Alberta, particularly in the north; needs to show himself as premier, with passion; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Ted Morton: Very capable; looks like he could do the job; smeared by someone on the question of secret e-mail addresses; not known in the north; never visited Smoky Lake.
Rick Orman: Unknown in Alberta, old hat; nice guy but out of the question; won't make it to the second ballot: never visited Smoky Lake.
Alison Redford: Clear, articulate and knows her stuff; will make it to the second ballot; has a chance if her campaign can show herself to be strong enough to fight the big boys in Calgary; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Alberta Liberal Leader, Raj Sherman -
Former Tory MLA Raj Sherman is now leader of the Alberta Liberal Party. Mr. Sherman garnered something like 54 percent support in a week long electoral process that ended last Saturday - a voting system that some have said was confusing, it included Alberta Liberal Party members as well as non-party member Albertans who simply registered to vote in the leadership race. It is worthy to note that Mr. Sherman, an emergency room doctor and a former Progressive Conservative MLA, was ousted from the PC caucus last November over healthcare disagreements with Premier Ed Stelmach. As expressed in the leadership campaign, Mr. Sherman outlined his political priorities to be: responsible government; stable economy; healthcare; education and support for seniors. A specific priority Mr. Sherman has mentioned - the need for Albertan's to further up-grade Alberta's oil sands products. On Monday the eight Liberal caucus members in the Alberta Legislature welcomed Raj Sherman as their new leader, which suggests to me that Mr. Sherman will be moving the Liberal Party of Alberta to the right of what it was.
Whispering in the Wind
Politically speaking, Albertans are living in some interesting times:
PC Alberta First Ballot Vote - September 17
PC Alberta members do have an awesome responsibility on Saturday, September 17 - voting for one of six candidates seeking the Alberta PC leadership job (and Premier, Province of Alberta). And if none of the six candidates wins a clear 50 percent of the vote - the PC party members will make a preference choice (first and second choice of the top three candidates) on Saturday, October 1. For those wanting to vote at the Smoky Lake poll on Saturday September 17 (at the Ukrainian National Hall between 9:00am - 7:00pm) please take note of the following requirement: be a Canadian citizen; present a 2011 PC Alberta membership card; two pieces of identification that indicates residence in the Athabasca - Redwater constituency.
From Six to Three?
The election of Alberta's next premier has moved into the first phase of a two phase election process - most political observers have suggested that none of the six candidates will get 50 percent of the vote so a second ballot on October 1 is likely. In my view the Alberta PC leadership campaign has to a large extent been an Oh-Hum campaign with only one or two of the six showing the least amount of interest or passion to be leader - in some cases some of the candidates think it is their political birthright to be Premier - let's hope Albertans will see some sparks fly over the next couple of weeks. Below is a thumbnail sketch of the six candidates and how I think they've faired on the campaign trail:
Doug Griffiths: Too young and inexperienced; watch out, he'll be a force in ten years; interesting to see who he supports for the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Gary Mar: Was front runner; made a bad mistake on suggesting two-tier health care system (I think he was mis-understood); will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Doug Horner: Has a lot of support in rural Alberta, particularly in the north; needs to show himself as premier, with passion; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Ted Morton: Very capable; looks like he could do the job; smeared by someone on the question of secret e-mail addresses; not known in the north; never visited Smoky Lake.
Rick Orman: Unknown in Alberta, old hat; nice guy but out of the question; won't make it to the second ballot: never visited Smoky Lake.
Alison Redford: Clear, articulate and knows her stuff; will make it to the second ballot; has a chance if her campaign can show herself to be strong enough to fight the big boys in Calgary; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Alberta Liberal Leader, Raj Sherman -
Former Tory MLA Raj Sherman is now leader of the Alberta Liberal Party. Mr. Sherman garnered something like 54 percent support in a week long electoral process that ended last Saturday - a voting system that some have said was confusing, it included Alberta Liberal Party members as well as non-party member Albertans who simply registered to vote in the leadership race. It is worthy to note that Mr. Sherman, an emergency room doctor and a former Progressive Conservative MLA, was ousted from the PC caucus last November over healthcare disagreements with Premier Ed Stelmach. As expressed in the leadership campaign, Mr. Sherman outlined his political priorities to be: responsible government; stable economy; healthcare; education and support for seniors. A specific priority Mr. Sherman has mentioned - the need for Albertan's to further up-grade Alberta's oil sands products. On Monday the eight Liberal caucus members in the Alberta Legislature welcomed Raj Sherman as their new leader, which suggests to me that Mr. Sherman will be moving the Liberal Party of Alberta to the right of what it was.
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