Alberta PC Election

Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 189 (September 21, 2011) 

Whispering in the Wind

For me, political elections are a time of excitement and anticipation - I always enjoy discussing results and consequences of those results as they unfold, and of course, who or which party might come out on top.  At times, I have been known to place a friendly wager on election results and of course it's always fodder for my column - let's hope I don't have to "eat" any of my words for this week's assessment as things are changing by the hour and my publication deadline is fast approaching.  Last Saturday's PC leadership contest is no exception to my rule of expressing my personal views as clearly as possible, so here's my take on what happened in the last couple of days and what might unfold in the next week or two:

Of The Six, There Are Now Three -
Of the six original candidates for the Premier, Province of Alberta, three won entry into the second ballot vote set for October 1.  Last Saturday, Gary Mar became the clear leader right from the start of the vote count with Doug Horner, Ted Morton and Alison Redford see-sawing throughout the night for the number two and three spots.  In the end Gary Mar got 41 percent of the vote (24,195 votes); Alison Redford got close to 20 percent with 11,129 votes and Doug Horner got 15 per cent or 8,635 votes - the remaining 25 percent of the votes went to Doug Griffiths (3 percent), Ted Morton (12 percent) and Rick Orman (10 percent).  In my view Gary Mar got respectable support from voters throughout the province, winning over his competitors in 52 of Alberta's 83 constituencies and showing exceptional strength in Edmonton's 18 constituencies - one close observer has estimated that Mar received close to 60 percent of the Edmonton area vote.  Alison Redford received a smaller vote count but garnered respectable counts throughout many constituencies in the province with good support coming from southern constituencies.  Doug Horner's strength was without question in the northern constituencies - in the Lac La Biche-St. Paul Constituency Mr. Horner got over 80 percent of the vote and in Athabasca-Redwater he got 56 percent - Mr. Horner had poor showings in a number of southern constituencies (particularly in the Calgary area where in some locations his vote count was in the single digits). 

Successful Strategies, Unsuccessful Strategies -
In my view, Mr. Mar executed an impressive campaign strategy; a strategy that came close to a first ballot win - some have said that getting targeted groups out to vote for him was a particularly successful tactic in Mar's campaign and that made all the difference in the world for his provincial vote count.  Doug Horner's strategic failure was that he wasn't able to energize rural voters in southern Alberta, an energy that he clearly had in the northern part of the province - also he couldn't get any meaningful support in either of the major cities - for me it means that Doug Horner was branded to be too rural - the same type of brand given to Ed Stelmach in his leadership campaign days.  Alison Redford's campaign strategy was to get onto the second ballot - I can't figure out how she did it but she was successful and came out as a clear second place finisher, although a distant second place.  Alison Redford is smart; clear in her policy stances and voiced a number of worthwhile ideas during the leadership debates - so what does Redford have to do over the next two weeks, if she wants to win Alberta's top political job?  In my view, Alison Redford has to implement a strategy that excites a lot of "new" voters in the province and those "new" voters have to get out and vote for her on October 1 - but there is more, she needs to garner strong support from the candidates that lost in the first ballot and convince their voter base to get out a vote for her and she still needs to do more, she needs to somehow negotiate with Doug Horner supporters to put Alison Redford as their second choice preference on the October 1 ballot - not only is the process a little confusing it is a real long shot for Alison Redford.  Also, Doug Horner, who placed third in the first ballot vote, will have to use an identical vote getting strategy as recommended for Redford, if he is to have a realistic chance to secure Alberta's top political job.  Things have become more difficult for both Alison Redford and Doug Horner; Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Doug Griffiths publicly endorsed Gary Mar and the Mar bid to become Alberta's next premier - this development has added to Gary Mar's momentum and has made the leadership aspirations of both Alison Redford or Doug Horner virtually impossible to grasp within a two week period.  What does all this complexity and confusion mean??? - It means a lot political maneuvering by the leadership candidates and a lot of serious thinking by those who want to maintain party unity - and that means at all costs, avoid the appearance of party division and acrimony within the leadership candidate camps - most important it means; either a quick endorsement of Gary Mar by all the candidates or make the October 1 ballot a two person race - Gary Mar opposite either Alison Redford or Doug Horner, but not both - and it all has to happen soon, in the next few days and well before October 1 - my bet all the candidates (both winners and losers) are going to end up and endorsing Gary Mar as Alberta's Premier-elect.  

A Footnote - The Real Threat to PC Alberta! 
It is worth mentioning the failure strategy of candidate Ted Morton and his inability to secure a slot on the second ballot - a strategic failure that could very well have ominous implications on the whole PC Alberta Party and the future of the "progressive conservative" movement in Alberta.  Mr. Morton was the candidate who clearly indicated that he was the only candidate able to fight off the threats posed by the Wildrose Party and bring wayward progressive conservatives back into PC Alberta's camp - he was quite successful in his advocacy and was branded as such, but ended up unsuccessful in getting those "wayward" right-wing-voters out to vote for him - in my view it meant that a good number of right-wing conservatives are now comfortable with Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party and they simply didn't get out and vote for Ted Morton - if my logic is correct it could explain why the overall turnout on Saturday was about half what it was in the last PC Alberta leadership race and that means serious problems for Alberta's new premier and PC Alberta.