Referenda and Elections ..... I can't wait!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 46) September 24, 2014

Scotland Votes “No” to Independence

Just days before the “independence” referendum vote in Scotland Prime Minister David Cameron vowed to the Scottish people that if they voted “No” to independence, Scotland would be given increased powers within the United Kingdom framework.  That vow was endorsed by the other major political parties in London.  Last Thursday’s vote was clear, 55 percent voted against having an independent state – what was really amazing was the 84.6 percent participation rate.  A big question, does last week’s referendum settle the “independence” issue in Great Britain?  No it doesn’t.  Conservative Prime Minister Cameron offered some clarity a day or so after the vote was announced in Scotland.  As I read Mr. Camron’s words; the devolution of powers to Scotland would have to be taken in context and the views of the other United Kingdom partners (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) would have to be considered.  That means a constitutional review is likely, a review that will probably take years to complete.  More importantly it means that Scotland will not necessarily be given any “special statues” within the United Kingdom political landscape.  How it all ends up is going to be interesting and when all the dust settles it could mean another referendum in Scotland?  Sounds to me like the Scottish people were duped by a very smart, cunning prime minister of Great Britain with England continuing to have the upper hand.

Canada (Alberta) Facing Key Referenda – Elections

In elections you vote for a candidate or a party.  In a referendum, you vote on an issue or a set of issues.  In Canada a general election is scheduled for October 19, 2015 – unless Prime Minister Steven Harper decides otherwise and I think an earlier election is still a real possibility.  Whenever the election is to be held it’s my view the election will be a referendum on the Harper Way of governance.  In the past two years the Harper Way has proved very troublesome.  Some observers have said that his mishandling of the pipeline issue into the United States has been a complete failure.  His handling of domestic issues (the Senate scandal, the Aboriginal education issue, stagnant employment figures, the temporary foreign workers program, etc.) has also tarnished the Harper Way brand.  Mr. Harper has clearly demonstrated his inability to compromise and work with others to address the economic, social issues facing Canada – Mr. Harper’s mindset is clear, it’s either the Harper’s Way or no way.  There has also been a dramatic shift in Mr. Harper’s strategy to win the upcoming election.  Said another way, Steven Harper’s more “hawkish” approach to international affairs is adding another arrow to his arsenal to attract world attention and that attention could see him win a general election in Canada.        

In Alberta, Jim Prentice has been declared Alberta’s Premier by his party but he is not a Member of Alberta’s elected Legislative Assembly – a situation that must be quickly fixed through a successful by-election.  Premier Prentice quickly declared a cabinet that includes two un-elected members; Stephen Mandel (Minister of Health) and Gordon Dirks (Minister of Education) – another situation that must be fixed through successful by-elections.  The fixed election date in Alberta is still a couple of years away, unless Premier Prentice decides otherwise.  No question in my mind, Mr. Prentice was elected by the Alberta Progressive Party to be the Saviour of the party.  Premier Prentice has made some bold and effective decisions since becoming premier – selling off Alberta’s air force, keeping the Michener center open in Red Deer are both sitting well with the public and the opposition parties.  Unfortunately for Mr. Prentice there is very little time for him to demonstrate and prove two things:  that the Alberta PC party can rejuvenate itself with vigor and with that vigor regain the confidence of the Alberta electorate.