It's up to Harper to Decide on the Next Election Date

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 47) October 1, 2014

Harper Government Prepares for War, the Harper Way

Last week the Prime Minister announced in New York that Canada was joining a consortium to fight the ISIS terrorist group in Iraq (and Syria).  Mr. Harper declared: “We do not stand on the sidelines and watch.  We do our part.”  The prime minister goes on to say:  “That’s always how this country has handled its international responsibilities, and as long as I’m prime minister that’s what we will continue to do.”  I agree with the prime minister’s position that Canada cannot “stand on the sidelines and watch” terrorists create havoc and carnage.  I also support the possibility that Canada will likely participate in a more direct, combative role in the elimination of the ISIS threat in Iraq and Syria.  But I do take great exception to the Harper Way when it comes to exercising his prime ministerial prerogatives and responsibilities.  Specifically, when it comes to International affairs, Mr. Harper represents all the people of Canada and therefore is responsible to the parliament of Canada to bring all of Canada’s views into perspective – it’s the Canadian Way.      

Harper Prepares for a 2015 Election, the Harper Way

One of the more interesting questions circulating amongst political pundits in Ottawa and elsewhere; will Canadians be going to the polls earlier than the “official” October, 19, 2015 date?  The answer is pretty simple, Steven Harper desperately wants to win another majority in the next election because a minority government for the Conservatives under his leadership would be considered a failure on his part and winning third party status would be viewed as a personal insult.  So only Steven Harper will decide when the next federal election takes place and he’s still weighing his options.  To put this “election date” issue into perspective one has to assess the key factors that will influence Harper’s decision.   

The Economy:   The Canadian economy appears to be sputtering along with the national unemployment rate hovering at a persistent 7 percent – those between the ages of 15 -24 years are at a disturbing 14 percent rate.  Whether the employment conditions change in 2015 is anybody’s guess but a number of respected economists are forecasting that the economy is going to get worse, specifically in Ontario and the provinces eastward.  Only in western Canada is there substantial support for the prime minister’s economic policies and initiatives and even in the prairie provinces, there is some concern and hesitation – where it is obvious that pipelines are necessary to move product to market and the railroads are unable to unplug a very plugged up system.  Three economic initiatives must be mentioned when judging the success (or failure) of Mr. Harper’s economic leadership strategy and actual performance:  the Keystone XL pipeline proposal is lacking approval from U.S. President Barack Obama; the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline proposal is being resisted by a number of environmental and aboriginal groups; and the Canada- European Union trade agreement is fraught with confusion and reservations as to whether the agreement will be ratified by a number of European Union members, including the EU’s largest economy, Germany.  If there is a positive breakthrough in any of these three economic initiatives Harper’s image would soar and no doubt help him greatly at the election polls.

Nation Building Misadventures:  There have been a number of serious domestic issues not being addressed by the Harper government and if they were they have turned out to be major mistakes.  To list a few of the more obvious mistakes made by the Harper government:  the lack of a clear, manageable environment strategy, a poorly managed, yet necessary Temporary Foreign Workers Program; the disrespectful attitude toward the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice; and the obvious disrespect of parliament’s institutions and traditions.  Taken individually these mistakes are not a reason for a revolt at the polls but does help develop the mood of the electorate.  In a Nanos Research poll taken earlier this year 55 percent of those Canadians who responded don’t like the direction the Harper government is taking the country. 

Factor 3, The Duffy Factor:  In my view the most important factor that will determine whether the federal election date is changed is the Mike Duffy trial scheduled to begin April 7, 2015, last 41 days and end on June 19.  Mr. Duffy is facing 31 charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery, all related to what has been labelled the Senate Expenses Scandal.  Mr. Donald Bayne, Duffy’s defense lawyer voiced “As we have said from the start, we trust that the evidence will show that Senator Duffy is innocent of these criminal charges.”  I suspect that Mr. Duffy’s lawyer is using normal legal speak on his clients behalf.  Putting the charges against  Mr. Duffy aside, there are a number of big questions waiting for answers.  Will Steven Harper be asked to testify as a witness?  Will the prime minister declare parliamentary privilege and refuse to appear as a witness?  Will the evidence prove that the prime minister and others were complicit in a scheme to defraud the Government of Canada?  As to whether an election is called prior to the start of the Duffy trail, highly unlikely as I think he would not have the protection of parliamentary privilege but I leave it to lawyers involved to sort out the legal arguments.  As to the possibility of having an election just after the Duffy trial is finished, again it is unlikely therefore the best answer is that the next federal election will occur as scheduled, October 19, 2015.  But I am also seduced by some unconfirmed rumors.  Recently I was told by an “insider” with the Conservative Party that all nominations at the riding level must be completed by Christmas, 2014.  That opens another timeframe for a much earlier federal election date – February or March, 2015?

     

Referenda and Elections ..... I can't wait!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 46) September 24, 2014

Scotland Votes “No” to Independence

Just days before the “independence” referendum vote in Scotland Prime Minister David Cameron vowed to the Scottish people that if they voted “No” to independence, Scotland would be given increased powers within the United Kingdom framework.  That vow was endorsed by the other major political parties in London.  Last Thursday’s vote was clear, 55 percent voted against having an independent state – what was really amazing was the 84.6 percent participation rate.  A big question, does last week’s referendum settle the “independence” issue in Great Britain?  No it doesn’t.  Conservative Prime Minister Cameron offered some clarity a day or so after the vote was announced in Scotland.  As I read Mr. Camron’s words; the devolution of powers to Scotland would have to be taken in context and the views of the other United Kingdom partners (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) would have to be considered.  That means a constitutional review is likely, a review that will probably take years to complete.  More importantly it means that Scotland will not necessarily be given any “special statues” within the United Kingdom political landscape.  How it all ends up is going to be interesting and when all the dust settles it could mean another referendum in Scotland?  Sounds to me like the Scottish people were duped by a very smart, cunning prime minister of Great Britain with England continuing to have the upper hand.

Canada (Alberta) Facing Key Referenda – Elections

In elections you vote for a candidate or a party.  In a referendum, you vote on an issue or a set of issues.  In Canada a general election is scheduled for October 19, 2015 – unless Prime Minister Steven Harper decides otherwise and I think an earlier election is still a real possibility.  Whenever the election is to be held it’s my view the election will be a referendum on the Harper Way of governance.  In the past two years the Harper Way has proved very troublesome.  Some observers have said that his mishandling of the pipeline issue into the United States has been a complete failure.  His handling of domestic issues (the Senate scandal, the Aboriginal education issue, stagnant employment figures, the temporary foreign workers program, etc.) has also tarnished the Harper Way brand.  Mr. Harper has clearly demonstrated his inability to compromise and work with others to address the economic, social issues facing Canada – Mr. Harper’s mindset is clear, it’s either the Harper’s Way or no way.  There has also been a dramatic shift in Mr. Harper’s strategy to win the upcoming election.  Said another way, Steven Harper’s more “hawkish” approach to international affairs is adding another arrow to his arsenal to attract world attention and that attention could see him win a general election in Canada.        

In Alberta, Jim Prentice has been declared Alberta’s Premier by his party but he is not a Member of Alberta’s elected Legislative Assembly – a situation that must be quickly fixed through a successful by-election.  Premier Prentice quickly declared a cabinet that includes two un-elected members; Stephen Mandel (Minister of Health) and Gordon Dirks (Minister of Education) – another situation that must be fixed through successful by-elections.  The fixed election date in Alberta is still a couple of years away, unless Premier Prentice decides otherwise.  No question in my mind, Mr. Prentice was elected by the Alberta Progressive Party to be the Saviour of the party.  Premier Prentice has made some bold and effective decisions since becoming premier – selling off Alberta’s air force, keeping the Michener center open in Red Deer are both sitting well with the public and the opposition parties.  Unfortunately for Mr. Prentice there is very little time for him to demonstrate and prove two things:  that the Alberta PC party can rejuvenate itself with vigor and with that vigor regain the confidence of the Alberta electorate. 

Red vs. Blue Torys Exists at the Riding Level

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 45) September 17, 2014

Member of Parliament for the Westlock - St.Paul riding Brian Storseth announced that he will not be running in the 2015 federal election.  Mr. Storseth indicated that he will continue on with his duties as a MP until the election is called and that means no by-election in the riding. 

It is worth noting for local residents, the federal riding’s name and boundaries are changing.  The “new” riding name is Lakeland with “new” boundaries.  The Lakeland riding includes the following major communities and surrounding areas:  Athabasca, Thorhild, Smoky Lake, St. Paul, Glendon, Bonnyville, Vermilion, Lloydminister and Vegreville.

Political parties are in the very early stages of selecting their respective candidates to do battle in the scheduled October, 2015 general election.  For the Lakeland Conservative Association two people have let their name stand to be the riding’s Conservative nominee.  Lewis Semashkewich and Shannon Stubbs are both interested in becoming the Conservative Party of Canada’s candidate in the 2015 general election – a nomination date has not been set by the Lakeland Conservative Association.

Lewis Semashkewich

As President of Melewka Structures and Design, Mr. Semashkewich works from Athabasca and from what I have been able to determine, he is an entrepreneur and property manager – amongst other things he manages some elite properties in the Bahamas. As well Semashkewich is an elected trustee for the Aspen View Public School Board.  As to Mr. Semashkewich’s politics he is not hesitant to voice independent thoughts on where the Conservatives in Ottawa could do things differently and possibly better.  According to one interview Semashkewich identified “pipelines” and getting Alberta oil and refined oil products to both Canadian and foreign markets as a top priority in his campaign to get nominated.  To help the people in the Lakeland region Semashkewich said:  “I believe that we need to have another refinery between Cold Lake and Lloydminister…. We could build a pipeline east, refine the oil and sell finished products to Canadians and not be buying finished products back from other countries.”  Mr. Semashkewich has offered strong views on a number of other subjects such as immigration, the temporary foreign works program and Canada’s young people.   In Semashkewich’s words he says Canada’s youth is an “untapped resource” that must be cultivated.  From my perspective, it is refreshing to hear some political views from a conservative that recommends how things can be done better or differently and doing it in a conservative environment.

Shannon Stubbs

Shannon Stubbs was born and raised on a family farm in the Chipman area.  Ms. Stubbs has accumulated extensive political experience in the conservative movement in Alberta and Ottawa.  More recently Shannon Stubbs has worked closely with Alberta’s Wildrose Party and all of its activities.  Stubbs’ connection to the Wildrose Party has become quite personal in that she is now engaged to Shayne Saskiw, the current Wildrose MLA for the Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills constituency.  In the early days Shannon Stubbs started her political career with a BA in political science from the University of Alberta, was an intern for Preston Manning in the Reform movement and worked for Deborah Grey in her constituency office.  Most recently Stubbs has closely associated herself to the Alberta Wildrose Party.  Shannon Stubbs held the positions of advisor and chief of staff to the Alberta Wildrose Party leader, between 2010 -2012.  And Shannon Stubbs was director of legislative affairs for the Danielle Smith, leader of the official opposition between 2012 -2014.  Stubbs is currently visiting communities in the riding and gaining insights and thoughts from people she is meeting.  One thought that she has deemed particularly important are property rights.  If nominated and if she wins in the 2015 election, she will push for entrenching property rights in the constitution.  Another clear statement made by Ms. Stubbs is that she is a strong supporter of the present Conservative government in Ottawa – and that means, Ms. Stubbs is a strong supporter of the Harper Way.

My Perspective

Regarding the New Democrat, Liberal nominees, it is still early in the process.  In the past few weeks, both Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau visited Alberta to rally their party faithful – and both probably have ideas on who and how their party might crack the conservative stronghold in Alberta, and the Lakeland riding.  As for the Conservative nominees there is little doubt in my mind that there are political differences between the two nomination candidates.  Lewis Semashkewich is relatively new to politics, more independent minded and more progressive.  Mr. Semashkewich would be classed a Red Tory – a conservative who holds “progressive” views on certain fiscal and social issues.  Shannon Stubbs has a different perspective on politics.  Stubbs has worked most of her early adult life under Preston Manning’s Reform (now Wildrose) influence.  No doubt in my mind, Ms. Stubbs would be classed a Blue Tory – a conservative who advocates and staunchly supports strong traditionalist, orthodox conservative values.  Who ends up carrying the torch for the Conservatives in the Lakeland riding has yet to be settled or determined.        

  

The Prentice Way

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 44) September 10, 2014

Jim Prentice Wins

The Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership race ended on Saturday with the election of Jim Prentice as the premier-designate, Province of Alberta.  Mr. Prentice received 77 percent of the electronically registered vote with Ric McIver receiving 12 percent and Thomas Lukaszuk obtaining 11 percent – in total 23,386 votes were registered.  Both Mr. McIver and Mr. Lukaszuk have indicated that neither would contest the results – even though the voting process was embarrassingly mismanaged.

Jim Prentice – the Commitment

There is no doubt in my mind that the Jim Prentice victory speech was targeted, first to Albertans as well as the party faithful, when he said:  “I want to be candid with the people of Alberta.  Over time the government has lost its way.  Watching from afar, I was as disappointed and as frustrated as anyone.”  Also in the speech, Mr. Prentice made three points that he will be measured by when he said:

“I will restore a commitment to fiscal prudence and ethical conduct in Alberta.  I will enforce the rules and I will make tough choices when they will need to be made and I will stand by them.” 

“My election as leader of the party marks the beginning of a commitment to integrity and acceptance of responsibility.”

“Albertans expect excellence and they expect performance from those who are in positions of trust.”

Jim Prentice - the Agenda

No denying it, Mr. Prentice is a man of action.  Within 24 hours of his victory speech Prentice announced a well-rounded transition team that included the former mayor of the City of Edmonton, Stephen Mandel.  On Monday the premier-designate met with Premier Hancock when it was agreed to complete the transition on Monday, September 15.  As to the more substantive issues – gaining a seat in the Alberta Legislature as early as possible; rebuilding a rather stale Progressive Conservative Party; gaining the trust and confidence of Albertans through a more progressive approach to economic and social development; getting Alberta resources off to distant markets – are major challenges requiring a strong team of conservatives committed to The Prentice Way Forward.  As to what the big picture is going to look like I think Albertans will have to wait until October 27^th when the Alberta Legislature meets.  As to a big hint on what the big picture is going to look like, Mr. Prentice will be announcing his “reduced” cabinet on Monday, September 15, transition day.    

Jim Prentice – the Cabinet

There are only two things known about what the new “Prentice cabinet” will look like: first the cabinet is going to be “reduced” in size from about 30 posts to about 20.  Second Mr. Prentice will be announcing his new cabinet on Monday, September 15.  In the absence of knowing who’s in and who is going to be dropped, I’m going to offer some suggestions for anybody that will listen.  Let me offer three names who I feel can play important roles in the new Alberta government.  Stephen Mandel was mayor of the City of Edmonton and is currently chair of the Prentice Transition Team – obviously a trusted confident of Mr. Prentice.  Mr. Mandel is not a sitting member of the Alberta Legislature so putting him in a cabinet post would be unusual but not totally unique.  Mr. Mandel has apparently shown some interest in running in the 2016 provincial election so my suggestion to Mr. Prentice is to place Mr. Mandel in a management role within the Alberta PC Party – a particularly important function if you are trying to re-build trust in a party from the grassroots up.  Jeff Johnson is the current Minister of Education and has endured major conflict between the teacher’s union and a taskforce report on accountability in the education sector.  Mr. Johnson is well respected for his tenacious approach to problem solving and is well suited for an economic portfolio that puts economic diversification and resource upgrading as a priority.  Doug Horner is currently the Provincial Treasurer and has been tagged by the opposition parties as being a party to Allison Redford’s misguided “entitlement” decisions.  In my view Mr. Horner would make a good, effective Minister of Agriculture in that he comes from a rural background and carries the Horner name, something that should not be forgotten when talking about rural Alberta politics.