Whispering in the Wind (WITW 104)
Political pundits have more often than not used the month
of January to reflect upon the past year’s “big picture” events and issues –
and if you’re a reader of the tea leaves, as some pundits are, January is also
the time of year to offer an opinion on what is to come in the months and years
ahead. As to my take on what was and
what is to come, I’ve concluded that the top global issues of 2015 are: the environment and climate change; terrorism
and the growth of religious conflict; and the struggle for nationhood in a globalized
world. For this week’s column, the focus
is on the reality and consequences of climate change.
The Climate
Change Conference
The United Nations Climate Change Conference (November 30
through December 12) has been heralded as one of the most important political
events of 2015, and possibly the most important agreement of the past half
century. Known as COP 21, 195 countries
met and agreed to targets that would limit global warming to something “well
below” 2 degrees centigrade – actually the scientific community hoped for a target
between 1.3 and 1.5 degrees, if the earth was to maintain its present biodiversity. While the 40,000 delegates and observers were
meeting in Paris, two of the world’s biggest polluting nations (China and India)
were coping with their immediate environmental realities, in real time, at the
city level.
Beijing,
China is regularly put on an elevated smog-alert warning – and
asking vulnerable people to stay indoors, closing schools, limiting traffic
flows and closing factories. Beijing’s
intensions to reduce smog levels are impressive and ambitious: 2,500 coal-fired factories will be shut down
in 2016; the city will help 600,000 households move to cleaner energy over a
period of five years and by 2020, all coal fired boilers in the city will be shut
down – China’s national government has concluded that the change from a
coal-fired economy to cleaner energy sources will take at least 30 years.
New Delhi,
India is just one of a dozen cities in the Indian
sub-continent to be described as environmental disaster areas. The World Health Organization has identified
New Delhi as the world’s most polluted city and it appears little action is
being taken to remediate its environmental record. Presently Delhi is “experimenting” with
restrictions on traffic flow patterns to reduce emissions – little else is
expected because of a rather vocal, hostile business sector. While the national government of India signed
the COP 21 Agreement, its political attitudes are more reserved, cautious and
its actions, less ambitious. Only time
will tell if the world’s largest democracy will politically adjust to the
realities of environmental devastation.
Who
is Responsible?
As to which nations are most responsible for global
warming, the issue question should be considered from two perspectives; historical
and present day culprits. A Canadian assessment,
by Damon Mathews of Concordia University in Montreal, sheds some light on the
matter from a historical perspective.
Mr. Mathews concluded that the global temperature increase was 0.74
degrees centigrade over the past 100 years (1906 – 2005) and from his review,
was able to account for a 0.7 degree change – the major culprits were: the
United States (responsible for 0.15 degree change or 22 percent); China (9
percent); Russia (8 percent); Brazil and India (7 percent, each); Germany and
United Kingdom (5 percent, each).
Regarding current (21 century) emissions of greenhouse gases and how
nation’s rank, there has been a revealing, if not shocking shift at the
top. According to a number of news
reports: China accounts for 24 percent
of global, greenhouse gas emissions; the United States accounts for 15.5
percent; India 6.4 percent and the European Union 10.8 percent.
The
Politics of Climate Change
Agreeing to a “universal agreement” amongst 195 nations
is a monumental feat and shouldn’t be interpreted lightly. In the end, negotiating an agreement such as
the one in Paris (COP 21), has serious consequences, both positive and
negative. The five and ten year
benchmark reviews are extremely important steps but having a review mechanism
requires a strong, supporting institutional monitoring framework, that has grit. Financing the changes required under the COP
Agreement remains a major sticking point for developed nations like the Europe,
US and Canada. China and India (and
other so called developing countries) want to continue with their coal-fired
economies, letting others finance the remediation system for the most
vulnerable. As well, one of the biggest
dangers attached to COP21 is the legal language and the wordsmithing used, allowing
for escape from the true intent of the agreement – often thought of as an
escape hatch for politicians and other private interest groups. To summarize my feelings on COP 21, as it
currently stands: COP 21
IS TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE – the only thing worse: NOT HAVING THE COP 21
AGREEMENT!
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