Justin Trudeau is Stumbling, From the Start

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 106) January 27, 2016

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been in office for three months now and there is little doubt, his “sunny ways” gait and how he mixes with the public has gotten the media euphoric, labelling him the political rock star with promises.  As to his promises and his strategies used to achieve his commitments, there are bottle necks – with serious, unintended consequences.  Admittedly it is far too early to pass judgement on Mr. Trudeau’s performance as prime minister, but there are indicators which suggest that he has stumbled out of the starting gate. 

Trudeau’s First 12 Weeks

To suggest that Justin Trudeau wasn’t busy over the past three months, he or she would be looking at reality through a clouded lens.  Mr. Trudeau outlined his agenda and priorities last December under five broad headings:  Growth for the Middle Class; Open and Transparent Government; A Clean Environment and Strong Economy; Diversity is Canada’s Strength; Security and Opportunity.  As to specific announcements made and actions taken, a number are worth highlighting:   

Gender Parity – Mr. Trudeau announced a gender parity cabinet – 15 women of a 30 member cabinet.  In my view, a new standard has been set by the Liberal government and could very well impact future federal government appointments, and that means, gender issues could trump qualifications – and that’s a very dangerous precedent.  When asked why he wants gender parity, Mr. Trudeau glibly responded, “Because it’s 2015”.  The Environment is another major priority for Mr. Trudeau’s government and as promised, endorsed the principles of the Paris Climate Change Accord.  The hope for Mr. Trudeau is to meet with the provinces in the near future to assemble a national consensus with real targets – the speculation is that the provinces will voice their own specific plans, without targets – and that means Mr. Trudeau will have failed to bring about a truly “national” environmental policy.                                                                                  Syrian Refugees – Mr. Trudeau pledged to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of 2015 – after several adjustments the Trudeau government is now saying they will meet the target figure by the end of February, 2016 – an understandable, yet ill-considered promise on the part of the Liberal government.  The longer term issues associated with integration and assimilation could cause serious heartaches for Canadian governments in general.                                                                                 ISIS War Air Strikes – Mr. Trudeau promised to withdraw Canadian fighter jet support from the coalition efforts to fight the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.  While Mr. Trudeau is adamant against having a Canadian fighting force in a war zone, the need to offer meaningful support as an alternative to the coalition’s war efforts remains a mystery, if not unresolved.  In my view, the issue is very personal for Justin Trudeau and reminds me of those associated with the “hippie” anti-war movement of the 1960s.                                                                                                             Aboriginal Relations – In December, 2015 Justin Trudeau pledged to have an inquiry into the 1,200 missing or murdered aboriginal women and promised a “total renewal” of Canada’s relationship with its aboriginal populations.  While the inquiry into missing aboriginal women is a critical step in improving relations with the indigenous peoples of Canada, the La Loche (Lac La Roche) tragedy in northern Saskatchewan last week, has put a whole new perspective on aboriginal relations and the challenges facing Prime Minister Trudeau and his government.

What’s Missing on the Economic Side?

As to the economic side of Mr. Trudeau’s political equation, there is less transparency and Canadians will have to wait for details in the up-coming  federal budget measures.  The tax measures promised to the “middle class” have been incorporated into the taxation code and will be good for those with middle class earnings – and jobs.  Regarding measures to kick-start the Canadian economy – and a very shaky economy it is – Mr. Trudeau is banking on investments into “infrastructure” to develop confidence and create jobs.  In my view, the priority has to be about jobs, jobs, and more jobs – no matter what the cost is, in the short term.  Nevertheless, the public (and business) will have to wait for the federal (provincial) budget to see what other measures are in store for Canadians to develop confidence and jobs – the 82 mayors in the Montreal region are demonstrating just how greedy politicians can get – their recent overtures have not been helpful.       

Solving Problems, Thinking Outside the Box

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 105) January 20, 2016

“Thinking outside the box” is more than just a business cliché used by advertising teams and promoters to sell more product, products like grease-cutting dish soap or sporty, ego enhancing automobiles.  Thinking outside the box is an innovative, creative process that is unhampered by natural and man-made restrictions – it is used to find solutions to problems and issues that cannot be found by those who are “thinking within the box”.  Possibly the most “in the box thinkers” of today are those who lead governments – the politician.  With the political world in such turmoil, one would think that creative, innovative thought would come into play when dealing with major issues like climate change, terrorism and globalization.  After all, the wannabe leaders advocate change over status-quo – until they are put into office.       

The Climate Change Peril                                                                                For political leaders, the climate change issue was resolved in Paris with 195 countries signing on to the so-called COP21 Agreement.  While the United Nations has to be congratulated on seeing the process through and establishing a limiting 1.5 degree global warming target, there are some disturbing loose ends.  Most disturbing, the commitments, actions plans and results (if there are any) will not be seen for years and there are too many escape opportunities for the most polluting nations – it reminds me of a John Maynard Keynes quote:  “In the long run we are all dead."

  The Terrorism Reality: a 21^stCenturyCrusade?                                                                                            Terrorism activity has become a menacing reality for most western democracies and the situation appears to be spreading into Africa and Asia as well.  Expert observers are now suggesting that terrorism activity has become a franchise organization (somewhat like McDonalds or Walmart) with the financing for recruiting wannabe terrorists coming from wealthy sympathisers in the Middle East, and fronted by groups like ISIS, al Qaeda and Boko Haram.  The response to the terrorism activity in the west has varied but there is little doubt  the responses are less thought out and more intense.  Most disturbing are Donald Trump’s remarks and promises, should he become president of the United States next November.  His “out of box thinking” has gained considerable traction with a significant, growing population segment in the US – and that’s fearful.                                        Stopping Unbridled Globalization                                                                                                      For some fifty years now, globalization has developed into a major threat for politicians and nationhood.  In the last twenty five years, global corporations (and the like) have redrawn the economic map of the world and are fast becoming the rulers with elected politicians being the tools of change.  As to re-directing this unbridled globalization, there are options that can be realized, if one thinks about it.  Again, I recommend a major thinker on globalization who is thinking outside the box, David C. Korten and his book, “When Corporations Rule the World”.   

Global Warming: A Fuzzy Response to a Serious Problem

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 104)

Political pundits have more often than not used the month of January to reflect upon the past year’s “big picture” events and issues – and if you’re a reader of the tea leaves, as some pundits are, January is also the time of year to offer an opinion on what is to come in the months and years ahead.  As to my take on what was and what is to come, I’ve concluded that the top global issues of 2015 are:  the environment and climate change; terrorism and the growth of religious conflict; and the struggle for nationhood in a globalized world.  For this week’s column, the focus is on the reality and consequences of climate change. 

The Climate Change Conference    

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (November 30 through December 12) has been heralded as one of the most important political events of 2015, and possibly the most important agreement of the past half century.  Known as COP 21, 195 countries met and agreed to targets that would limit global warming to something “well below” 2 degrees centigrade – actually the scientific community hoped for a target between 1.3 and 1.5 degrees, if the earth was to maintain its present biodiversity.  While the 40,000 delegates and observers were meeting in Paris, two of the world’s biggest polluting nations (China and India) were coping with their immediate environmental realities, in real time, at the city level. 

Beijing, China is regularly put on an elevated smog-alert warning – and asking vulnerable people to stay indoors, closing schools, limiting traffic flows and closing factories.  Beijing’s intensions to reduce smog levels are impressive and ambitious:  2,500 coal-fired factories will be shut down in 2016; the city will help 600,000 households move to cleaner energy over a period of five years and by 2020, all coal fired boilers in the city will be shut down – China’s national government has concluded that the change from a coal-fired economy to cleaner energy sources will take at least 30 years.    

New Delhi, India is just one of a dozen cities in the Indian sub-continent to be described as environmental disaster areas.  The World Health Organization has identified New Delhi as the world’s most polluted city and it appears little action is being taken to remediate its environmental record.  Presently Delhi is “experimenting” with restrictions on traffic flow patterns to reduce emissions – little else is expected because of a rather vocal, hostile business sector.  While the national government of India signed the COP 21 Agreement, its political attitudes are more reserved, cautious and its actions, less ambitious.  Only time will tell if the world’s largest democracy will politically adjust to the realities of environmental devastation. 

Who is Responsible?

As to which nations are most responsible for global warming, the issue question should be considered from two perspectives; historical and present day culprits.  A Canadian assessment, by Damon Mathews of Concordia University in Montreal, sheds some light on the matter from a historical perspective.  Mr. Mathews concluded that the global temperature increase was 0.74 degrees centigrade over the past 100 years (1906 – 2005) and from his review, was able to account for a 0.7 degree change – the major culprits were: the United States (responsible for 0.15 degree change or 22 percent); China (9 percent); Russia (8 percent); Brazil and India (7 percent, each); Germany and United Kingdom (5 percent, each).  Regarding current (21 century) emissions of greenhouse gases and how nation’s rank, there has been a revealing, if not shocking shift at the top.  According to a number of news reports:  China accounts for 24 percent of global, greenhouse gas emissions; the United States accounts for 15.5 percent; India 6.4 percent and the European Union 10.8 percent.         

The Politics of Climate Change

Agreeing to a “universal agreement” amongst 195 nations is a monumental feat and shouldn’t be interpreted lightly.  In the end, negotiating an agreement such as the one in Paris (COP 21), has serious consequences, both positive and negative.  The five and ten year benchmark reviews are extremely important steps but having a review mechanism requires a strong, supporting institutional monitoring framework, that has grit.  Financing the changes required under the COP Agreement remains a major sticking point for developed nations like the Europe, US and Canada.  China and India (and other so called developing countries) want to continue with their coal-fired economies, letting others finance the remediation system for the most vulnerable.  As well, one of the biggest dangers attached to COP21 is the legal language and the wordsmithing used, allowing for escape from the true intent of the agreement – often thought of as an escape hatch for politicians and other private interest groups.  To summarize my feelings on COP 21, as it currently stands:                                                                                       COP 21 IS TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE – the only thing worse:                  NOT HAVING THE COP 21 AGREEMENT!