Whispering in the Wind (WITW 57) December 10, 2015
2014 has not been a particularly good year for Prime Minister
Harper and his Conservative Party “majority” government. The Harper government has stumbled or failed
in a number of important political areas; including the so-so performance of
the Canadian economy and his unusual mindset on how the Government of Canada
should operate. I can only assume that
his controlling management style and his failed policy initiatives will be
thrown back at him and his Conservative candidates during the 2015 election
campaign – an election that could come sooner than expected.
The
Canadian Economy
Having and maintaining a strong, vibrant Canadian economy
has always been a key plank in the Harper approach to governance and now, a
critical part of the Conservative Party’s election campaign strategy. Unfortunately the economy has not performed as
Mr. Harper wanted or expected in 2014. The
reality is obvious, the national economy
only sputtered upward in 2014 with job creation figures and unemployment rates
jumping every which way on monthly data charts with no clear trend to indicate
optimism. Simply put, if it weren’t for
the booming energy economies in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland the
country would be in deep trouble, both financially and economically. As to the Canadian economy in 2015 and the
years beyond, who knows? With the
international price of oil plummeting the way it has over the last five months there
is only one course of action to guide Canada out of this quagmire of
uncertainty: have an early national
election and elect representatives and leaders that have a national vision for
Canada; that can unify the dispirit interests of his/her constituency; operate
in a respective parliamentary way and in the end, do a lot of Nation Building
through consensus. Otherwise Canada will
continue to be simple hewers of wood, drawers of water where there is constant bickering
as to who wields the axe and who owns the pail.
OPEC
Pricing of International Oil
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) effectively sets the international price for oil through its level of
production. The OPEC member (presently
12 member countries) met in Vienna in late November and decided to maintain its
level of production and that decision is driving down the international price
for crude oil even further. OPEC’s
explanation for the cascade, the OPEC members want to retain about 40 per cent share
of the world’s oil consumption market.
The reality is that there is an oversupply of oil in some countries (the
United States being one) and they too are starting to export. Experts are estimating that there is about
700,000 barrels a day in excess supply.
Understandably the OPEC countries are trying to protect their present status. The implications for Alberta and Canada are
enormous – after all Canada (Alberta) is presently and aggressively trying to
build oil pipelines to access tide water and access new foreign markets. Alberta (Canada) has the third largest
reserves of oil in the world, so there is little wonder that OPEC is eyeing
activities in Canada and its aggressive construction program suspiciously.
In the last five months there has been a virtual collapse
of the international oil pricing mechanism.
In June, 2014 the international price for oil was US$107, today it is
under US$70 a barrel and dropping. As to
the impact very low oil prices is going to have on Canada’s energy sector the jury
is still out on the matter but one thing is obvious, the bloom on the Alberta,
Saskatchewan, Newfoundland economies has dimmed considerably.
There are other consequences that are more positive. Gasoline prices have dropped significantly
and that pleases the motorist. The plunging
oil prices are having a direct impact on the value of Canadian dollar opposite
the US dollar and that’s good news for Canada’s export sector (Ontario).
Predicting
the Next Federal Election
There is a lot of debate and speculation as to when the next
federal election will and might be held.
The triggers to calling an early election for March: sustained low
international oil prices that wipes out federal surpluses; the low oil prices
generates cancellation of significant oil patch activity; employment figures
start going in the wrong direction; the prime minister feels that the Duffy
trial (that begins on April 5) will reveal a cover up and significant
complicity by the prime minister and his office.
The triggers that will delay the election to the fall: the economy picks up (an exports surge due to
the low Canadian dollar) employment increases in key sectors; the Keystone
pipeline is given the OK by President Obama.
You guessed it, an election will be called in February,
2015.
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