It's up to Harper to Decide on the Next Election Date

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 47) October 1, 2014

Harper Government Prepares for War, the Harper Way

Last week the Prime Minister announced in New York that Canada was joining a consortium to fight the ISIS terrorist group in Iraq (and Syria).  Mr. Harper declared: “We do not stand on the sidelines and watch.  We do our part.”  The prime minister goes on to say:  “That’s always how this country has handled its international responsibilities, and as long as I’m prime minister that’s what we will continue to do.”  I agree with the prime minister’s position that Canada cannot “stand on the sidelines and watch” terrorists create havoc and carnage.  I also support the possibility that Canada will likely participate in a more direct, combative role in the elimination of the ISIS threat in Iraq and Syria.  But I do take great exception to the Harper Way when it comes to exercising his prime ministerial prerogatives and responsibilities.  Specifically, when it comes to International affairs, Mr. Harper represents all the people of Canada and therefore is responsible to the parliament of Canada to bring all of Canada’s views into perspective – it’s the Canadian Way.      

Harper Prepares for a 2015 Election, the Harper Way

One of the more interesting questions circulating amongst political pundits in Ottawa and elsewhere; will Canadians be going to the polls earlier than the “official” October, 19, 2015 date?  The answer is pretty simple, Steven Harper desperately wants to win another majority in the next election because a minority government for the Conservatives under his leadership would be considered a failure on his part and winning third party status would be viewed as a personal insult.  So only Steven Harper will decide when the next federal election takes place and he’s still weighing his options.  To put this “election date” issue into perspective one has to assess the key factors that will influence Harper’s decision.   

The Economy:   The Canadian economy appears to be sputtering along with the national unemployment rate hovering at a persistent 7 percent – those between the ages of 15 -24 years are at a disturbing 14 percent rate.  Whether the employment conditions change in 2015 is anybody’s guess but a number of respected economists are forecasting that the economy is going to get worse, specifically in Ontario and the provinces eastward.  Only in western Canada is there substantial support for the prime minister’s economic policies and initiatives and even in the prairie provinces, there is some concern and hesitation – where it is obvious that pipelines are necessary to move product to market and the railroads are unable to unplug a very plugged up system.  Three economic initiatives must be mentioned when judging the success (or failure) of Mr. Harper’s economic leadership strategy and actual performance:  the Keystone XL pipeline proposal is lacking approval from U.S. President Barack Obama; the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline proposal is being resisted by a number of environmental and aboriginal groups; and the Canada- European Union trade agreement is fraught with confusion and reservations as to whether the agreement will be ratified by a number of European Union members, including the EU’s largest economy, Germany.  If there is a positive breakthrough in any of these three economic initiatives Harper’s image would soar and no doubt help him greatly at the election polls.

Nation Building Misadventures:  There have been a number of serious domestic issues not being addressed by the Harper government and if they were they have turned out to be major mistakes.  To list a few of the more obvious mistakes made by the Harper government:  the lack of a clear, manageable environment strategy, a poorly managed, yet necessary Temporary Foreign Workers Program; the disrespectful attitude toward the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice; and the obvious disrespect of parliament’s institutions and traditions.  Taken individually these mistakes are not a reason for a revolt at the polls but does help develop the mood of the electorate.  In a Nanos Research poll taken earlier this year 55 percent of those Canadians who responded don’t like the direction the Harper government is taking the country. 

Factor 3, The Duffy Factor:  In my view the most important factor that will determine whether the federal election date is changed is the Mike Duffy trial scheduled to begin April 7, 2015, last 41 days and end on June 19.  Mr. Duffy is facing 31 charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery, all related to what has been labelled the Senate Expenses Scandal.  Mr. Donald Bayne, Duffy’s defense lawyer voiced “As we have said from the start, we trust that the evidence will show that Senator Duffy is innocent of these criminal charges.”  I suspect that Mr. Duffy’s lawyer is using normal legal speak on his clients behalf.  Putting the charges against  Mr. Duffy aside, there are a number of big questions waiting for answers.  Will Steven Harper be asked to testify as a witness?  Will the prime minister declare parliamentary privilege and refuse to appear as a witness?  Will the evidence prove that the prime minister and others were complicit in a scheme to defraud the Government of Canada?  As to whether an election is called prior to the start of the Duffy trail, highly unlikely as I think he would not have the protection of parliamentary privilege but I leave it to lawyers involved to sort out the legal arguments.  As to the possibility of having an election just after the Duffy trial is finished, again it is unlikely therefore the best answer is that the next federal election will occur as scheduled, October 19, 2015.  But I am also seduced by some unconfirmed rumors.  Recently I was told by an “insider” with the Conservative Party that all nominations at the riding level must be completed by Christmas, 2014.  That opens another timeframe for a much earlier federal election date – February or March, 2015?