In Alberta, It's All About Ambition and Power

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 59) December 30, 2014

Making sense of what’s going on in Alberta’s political arena has gotten just about everybody shaking their heads in confusion, if not disbelief – on December 17 the leader of Alberta’s Official Opposition and eight of her colleagues walked the political floor and joined the ruling Progressive Conservative government.  As explosive as these defections were I don’t think many people expected what’s unfolding in the aftermath.  The grassroots of the Wildrose Party are outraged by the unprecedented action of their former leader Danielle Smith.  Some are so incensed they’ve launched an online petition asking for the recall of Danielle Smith – to date 8,268 signatures have registered in the recall petition, not enough to guarantee a recall but sufficient enough to make an important statement.  The Progressive Conservative ranks are also suspicious and grumbling.  Within the PC caucus there are reservations regarding the written “reunification” understanding which gives privilege to the Wildrose defectors in the PC nomination process.  As to the general membership of the PC party, a good number are concerned that the “progressive” component in the Alberta PC movement is being squeezed out of Alberta’s political equation – I happen to be one of them.  So is this political maneuver in Alberta just a family squabble between the “red” and “blue” Tories or is it an omen of what is to come and a repeat of what happened at the federal level eleven years ago? Heaven forbid!

 

Canada Needs a Plan B

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 58) December 17, 2014

For many of us December is the time of year for reflection and anticipation – reflecting on what has gone well (or not so well) in 2014 and planning for better things to come in 2015.  With “Whispering in the Wind” being a political column and the last newspaper entry for 2014, I thought it important to identify two key political events that are now unfolding and how these events will impact Canadian politics in in the up-coming year. 

Collapsing Oil Prices 

In the last six months the international price of oil has declined precipitously by more than 40 percent and that’s bad news for oil producing countries like Canada, United States and Russia.  Experts are now predicting that the global price for oil has yet to bottom out and the world should expect low prices for the next couple of years.  In Canada, the price collapse has hit the conventional oil and gas sector particularly hard in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland with virtually everybody associated with the industry measuring their short term risk and longer term survival.  For the governments of Canada the issues are equally, if not more, complex.  For the provinces in the short term, it’s all about the buoyancy of their respective treasuries and if there is prudent spending, it could mean less debt financing.  For the federal government the issues have become desperate – remember the 2015 federal budget was to be tabled in early 2015 and by all accounts it was to be an election campaign budget without incurring debt.  In my view, Canada is in a desperate situation when it comes to the development of the country’s energy industry, so the mess has to be treated an opportunity in Nation Building – and that means and requires strong, cooperative political leadership with the big question, does it exist?       

The Threat of Increased Terrorism

On October 22, 2014 an honor guard was shot dead at the National War Memorial in Ottawa – minutes later the shooter was shot dead in the Centre Block of the Parliament Buildings – the shooter was later labeled as being a “lone” terrorist.  Two days earlier two uniformed soldiers were run down by a “lone” terrorist in Quebec – one of the uniformed soldiers died as a result of his hit and run injuries, the “lone” terrorist was shot dead by the police after a short auto chase.  In the last few days a known religious extremist was shot dead in Sidney Australia – two patrons in the restaurant were also shot and killed in the hostage incident – the religious extremist was later identified as a “lone” terrorist.  I think a pattern is developing when it comes to terrorism activity in countries like Canada and Australia.  When authorities use the label “lone” terrorist does it mean that there is no plan or conspiracy perpetrated and organized by a nefarious group like the ISIS organization?  I’m not interested in the details of interrogation and the rights of those who want to harm or destroy me, what I am interested in is the containment of terrorist activity – and if that means setting up a Guantanamo Bay type facility then it should be presented to Canadians as an option.  I, like many other Canadians, await Prime Minister Harper’s further legislation on dealing with both home grown and imported terrorist activity.  In my view Mr. Harper should draft this anti-terrorism legislation with the full input of the other political parties and he should present his suggestions prior to the election being called.  

Have a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!   

Election Needed - Canada (Alberta) in a Petro Fix

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 57) December 10, 2015

2014 has not been a particularly good year for Prime Minister Harper and his Conservative Party “majority” government.  The Harper government has stumbled or failed in a number of important political areas; including the so-so performance of the Canadian economy and his unusual mindset on how the Government of Canada should operate.  I can only assume that his controlling management style and his failed policy initiatives will be thrown back at him and his Conservative candidates during the 2015 election campaign – an election that could come sooner than expected.

The Canadian Economy

Having and maintaining a strong, vibrant Canadian economy has always been a key plank in the Harper approach to governance and now, a critical part of the Conservative Party’s election campaign strategy.  Unfortunately the economy has not performed as Mr. Harper wanted or expected in 2014.  The reality is obvious, the national economy only sputtered upward in 2014 with job creation figures and unemployment rates jumping every which way on monthly data charts with no clear trend to indicate optimism.  Simply put, if it weren’t for the booming energy economies in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland the country would be in deep trouble, both financially and economically.  As to the Canadian economy in 2015 and the years beyond, who knows?  With the international price of oil plummeting the way it has over the last five months there is only one course of action to guide Canada out of this quagmire of uncertainty:  have an early national election and elect representatives and leaders that have a national vision for Canada; that can unify the dispirit interests of his/her constituency; operate in a respective parliamentary way and in the end, do a lot of Nation Building through consensus.  Otherwise Canada will continue to be simple hewers of wood, drawers of water where there is constant bickering as to who wields the axe and who owns the pail. 

OPEC Pricing of International Oil

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) effectively sets the international price for oil through its level of production.  The OPEC member (presently 12 member countries) met in Vienna in late November and decided to maintain its level of production and that decision is driving down the international price for crude oil even further.  OPEC’s explanation for the cascade, the OPEC members want to retain about 40 per cent share of the world’s oil consumption market.  The reality is that there is an oversupply of oil in some countries (the United States being one) and they too are starting to export.  Experts are estimating that there is about 700,000 barrels a day in excess supply.  Understandably the OPEC countries are trying to protect their present status.  The implications for Alberta and Canada are enormous – after all Canada (Alberta) is presently and aggressively trying to build oil pipelines to access tide water and access new foreign markets.   Alberta (Canada) has the third largest reserves of oil in the world, so there is little wonder that OPEC is eyeing activities in Canada and its aggressive construction program suspiciously.          

In the last five months there has been a virtual collapse of the international oil pricing mechanism.  In June, 2014 the international price for oil was US$107, today it is under US$70 a barrel and dropping.  As to the impact very low oil prices is going to have on Canada’s energy sector the jury is still out on the matter but one thing is obvious, the bloom on the Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland economies has dimmed considerably. 

There are other consequences that are more positive.  Gasoline prices have dropped significantly and that pleases the motorist.  The plunging oil prices are having a direct impact on the value of Canadian dollar opposite the US dollar and that’s good news for Canada’s export sector (Ontario). 

Predicting the Next Federal Election

There is a lot of debate and speculation as to when the next federal election will and might be held.  The triggers to calling an early election for March: sustained low international oil prices that wipes out federal surpluses; the low oil prices generates cancellation of significant oil patch activity; employment figures start going in the wrong direction; the prime minister feels that the Duffy trial (that begins on April 5) will reveal a cover up and significant complicity by the prime minister and his office.

The triggers that will delay the election to the fall:  the economy picks up (an exports surge due to the low Canadian dollar) employment increases in key sectors; the Keystone pipeline is given the OK by President Obama.

You guessed it, an election will be called in February, 2015.

SEX Sells Newspapers

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 56) December 3, 2014

In the last month or so the Canadian news media has inundated itself with sex scandal after sex scandal.  To the glee of reporters and the public alike; SEX, SLEAZE and SCUTTLEBUTT garners a lot attention from the public and if you are using the British tabloid model, “it sells newspapers”. 

The Jian Ghomeshi Scandal 

Just after the sex scandal broke Mr. Ghomeshi published a rather arrogant response to the blockbuster expose.  In his view, his pain inflicting, masochistic sexual activities are acts between consenting adults and therefore nobody else’s business.  Not so for the three female, one male accusers who have come forward with much different stories.  Ghomeshi is now facing five serious charges and could serve serious jail time if the charges are proven in court – one charge is for choking and carries a sentence up to a life.  Mr. Ghomeshi posted $100,000 bail, surrendered his passport and the 47 year old was released from custody in the care of his mother – the Ghomeshi trial re-convenes on January 8, 2015.  As to what the Ghomeshi scandal has to do with politics – probably nothing other than it is an introduction to sex on Parliament Hill.   

The Parliament Hill Sex Scandal

Things have gotten a lot messier on Parliament Hill these days and you guessed it, it has to do with sex amongst the political elite of this country.  Two Liberal MPs were summarily dismissed from the Liberal caucus because of an informal discussion a complainant had with Liberal leader Justin Trudeau – actually there are two accusers, both female and both members of the New Democratic caucus.  Apparently both accusers want to remain anonymous and neither wants to lodge a “formal” complaint.  As more sordid details are revealed to the press it becomes more obvious to me; Justin Trudeau acted properly and as leader of the Liberal Party, acted with political integrity.  As to the leader of the New Democratic Party and how he is handling the scandal, Mr. Mulcair is botching it big time.  In my view, Mr. Mulcair has always been a champion of political transparency and has consistently used his political skills to effectively hold the Harper government to account for their misadventures – but not only is he un-transparent on this particular matter, he is going in the wrong direction – the result, he is digging himself and his party into an even deeper hole.  The best thing Mr. Mulcair can do is come clean with the public; distinguish between the two complainants and express regrets as to how things have unfolded.  For one of the complainants it appears that she is basing her defensive argument on the definition and meaning of consensual sex.  Based on what is being reported in the press her arguments are very weak and therefore she should apologize to all involved and resign from the House of Commons.  As to the second unknown complainant; the rumor is that the issue is “stalking”.  If stalking is the concern than the matter should be turned over and handled by the police.  As to the suggestion that a process is needed to deal with personal misconduct issues within the halls of the Parliament, it’s up to the Speakers (of the Senate and the House of Commons) and their respective security forces to pass judgement.  Otherwise and outside the traditions and protection of the Houses of Parliament, parliamentarians are like everyone else and the law of the land prevails. 

The Peter Goldring Factor – An Interesting Twist

Last week Conservative MP Peter Goldring added his own recommendation to those in Ottawa who want to avoid any confusion when soliciting or offering sexual favors; wear a video camera to avoid any “besmirchment” of ones character at a later date.  Almost immediately the statement was withdrawn by Mr. Goldring with the retraction coming directly from Prime Minister Harper’s office – so much for independent thinking in the Conservative Party.  For me I learned a lot from Mr. Goldring’s bizarre statement and it’s not good for either species. To put it in terms that I understand:  Courting, Flirting and Cavorting is a Risky Business!   

The Wildrose on the Brink

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 55) November 26, 2014

Wildrose at a Crossroads and Taking the Wrong Turn?

The 2014 Annual General Meeting of the Wildrose Party was planned to be a spirit building, ho-hum meeting of the party faithful.  Things didn’t turn out as planned when a very telling resolution on human rights policy was defeated by 58 percent of the party faithful.  The resolution proposed that a Wildrose government would defend the rights of all Albertans “regardless of race, religious belief, color, gender, physical disability, mental disability, age, ancestry, place of origin, marital status, source of income, family status, or sexual orientation of that person or class of persons.”  The vote on November 15: 148 against the resolution, 109 in favor.  The intent of the defeated motion was to make the Wildrose Party more inclusive and the effort failed with the grass roots vote at the annual meeting.  Undaunted by the setback Danielle Smith and her caucus adopted a “binding statement” on equality rights similar to the one rejected by party representatives two weeks earlier.  What it means to me, a significant portion of Wildrose base (up to 60 percent) want to retain “traditional family values” as core elements of the Wildrose’s platform – it means blocking increased gay rights and resisting more liberal abortion policies.  But that’s not all Danielle Smith has to worry about.  Still bruised by the four by-election loses to Jim Prentice last October Danielle Smith now has to contend with three recent party defections, two of which crossed the floor to join the Progressive Conservatives.  Whether Danielle Smith can repair a fractured party is still an open question, but if the Wildrose movement is to survive she had better listen more closely to her more libertarian base.

Michael Sona Sentenced

Former Conservative Party of Canada staff member Michael Sona has been sentenced to nine months in prison and a year’s probation for misdirecting voters in the 2011 federal election.  The judge presiding over the case said Sona showed a “callous and blatant disregard for the right of people to vote”.  Judge Hearn went further and said that Sona was a major participant in this ill-conceived and disturbing plan.  Michael Sona is still considering his legal options.  Sona is the only one charged with misleading voters in the Guelph, Ontario robocall scandal.  Andrew Prescott – deputy campaign manager was given an immunity deal in exchange for evidence against Michael Sona.  Ken Morgan – Guelph Conservative Manager moved to Kuwait and has never spoken to Elections Canada investigators.  Sona has always maintained his innocence with the claim that he had been scapegoated by the Conservative Party of Canada.  Surely there must be more to the story than what has been offered – hopefully this file remains active with Elections Canada and the RCMP, and all culprits are brought to justice – or has justice been served?