Nationalis is a Good Thing - But Not Putin's!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 19) March 12, 2014

Making sense of recent events in the Ukraine is not an easy undertaking and predicting the outcomes of Russia’s occupation of the Crimea is an even more precarious venture.  Following are a few of my conclusions regarding the turmoil in the Ukraine and what the global village can look forward to in the not too distant future.   

Putin’s Vision – Vladimir Putin has only one vision for his Mother Russia; a re-constituted Soviet Union.  Mr. Putin feels that by absorbing Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence he will destabilize Europe’s influence in other countries where ethnic Russians have gained a relevant foothold.  Mr. Putin has the tools – Russia’s oil and gas resources - to see his goal achieved.          

Ukraine Response – The Ukraine response to Russia’s incursion into the Crimea region has been embarrassing and virtually non-existent.  Interim president (Arseniy Yatsemyuk) has called for elections in May and if these elections are held the eastern half of Ukraine will become total chaos and will only magnify a divided Ukraine.  In terms of financial solvency, the Ukraine is a basket case.  The United States has offered a billion dollars in immediate support while the need is estimated at $35 to $50 billion.  The International Monetary Fund is reviewing the needs but will not give out any significant funding without assurances of more stability and less corruption.  Civil war is likely unless Mr. Putin’s goals are addressed.  

Response from “The West” – The response from western interests has also been weak with the exception of one initiative – the seizing of the western assets being held by Russian oligarchs.  Not to overstate the sanctions being proposed but the consequences could be significant if it goes further than just Russia’s investments outside their country.  One example is worth noting should the unregulated international financial markets be seriously investigated and / or seriously tampered with.  The ousted president of the Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych is now being investigated by a number of American experts.  Mr. Yanukovych is being investigated for absconding with something like $70 billion, all coming from the Ukrainian treasury over a period of three years – apparently the ousted president left an important financial paper trail in his rush to leave the Ukraine.           

My Perspective – In my view the Ukraine is only the proverbial tip of the iceberg.  Globalization, the unregulated global system of trade and finance, is now being threatened.  Said in another way, the rule of the corporation in molding national objectives and policies is being challenged.  Nationalism is on the rise and that is a good thing; unfortunately extreme nationalism is also on the rise.    

Ukraine, a powder keg, who lit the fuse?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 18) March 5, 2014

In less than a week the Ukraine has become a geopolitical powder keg with Russian troops circulating throughout the Ukrainian Crimea region under orders to protect Russian interests and the Russian speaking peoples of the area.  In this column there is no attempt to speculate on what might happen next in the current crisis – that will be up to Mr. Putin.  The analysis here is an attempt to outline two underlying issues that are guiding this very complex, explosive situation     

Ukraine, a Geopolitical Nightmare

Ukraine is the largest of all the European nations with many observers calling the Ukraine, “Europe’s breadbasket”.  About a third of Ukraine’s population (and about a third of the country’s landmass) is Russian speaking and favor stronger ties to the Russian Federation.  In 1954 the then Soviet Union ceded the Crimea region to Ukraine and is today the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (with its own constitution) under Ukrainian law.  The Crimea region is 60 percent Russian speaking – a recent poll indicated that over 40 percent of the population want closer ties with Russia, if not annexation – also worth noting the Russian Black Sea naval fleet is stationed by contract in Simferopol, Crimea’s capital city.  From my perspective the Ukraine is divided with a good majority of the western portion of the country wanting closer ties with the European Union, including NATO’s military protection.  The eastern half of the Ukraine wants closer ties with the Russian Federation.  The “temporary” governing regime in Kiev has scheduled a presidential election for May, 2014 to replace the ousted pro-Moscow president, Viktor Yanukovych.  Mr. Yanukovych fled to Moscow in fear of his life but has recently broadcasted that he is still president of the Ukraine.  My prediction, the country will remain divided after the May 25, 2014 presidential elections and after a straight forward referendum, the Crimea will be returned to the Russian Federation.          

Vladimir Putin Has Delusions of Grandeur

Simply put, President Putin considers the European Union and the People’s Republic of China to be major threats working against him and his plans for Russia.  Put another way, President Putin wants to establish an economic bloc that spans from Europe to the Chinese boundary – surprisingly Mr. Putin has some of the cards to take on the challenge, Russia’s oil and gas resources.  Mr. Putin is said to be undertaking taking a “soft annexation” approach and that means working through and with the Russian speaking peoples in the former soviet satellites.  Already on side are Belarus, Kazakhstan and the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.  Now Mr. Putin’s focus is on the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.  As I mentioned in the earlier note, no matter what happens in the presidential elections on May 25, 2014 the Ukraine will remain divided and what most likely will happen, there will be a plebiscite in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea that will favor Russia – and that is what is so worrying in the West.

Just a Gaffe or Poor Judgement

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 17) February 26, 2014

Canada’s political landscape has recently been peppered with political mistakes, miscalculations and errors in judgement.  On one extreme a politician explains his or her difficult circumstance and the media reports it as a simple gaffe – a gaffe meaning an unintentional act or remark causing embarrassment to its originator, a blunder.  The term comes from Michael Kinsley who said “A gaffe is when a politician tells the truth – some obvious truth he isn’t supposed to say.”  On the other extreme, the political opposition reflects on the same circumstances being a result of poor judgement and poor character – making the individual or individuals involved unworthy of public office.   Here are three examples of politicians being judged by the media and other politicians:

Redford’s $45,000 Trip to Nelson Mandela’s Funeral

Premier Redford was correct in offering to the media full cost details and all the circumstances related to her South African travel plans – even the Wildrose Party critic recognized the importance of the trip to Nelson Mandela’s funeral.  As to the use of an Alberta government jet to get Premier Redford to Ottawa and on to Prime Minister Harper’s jet, why not?  The circumstances were unusual and extenuating.  From my perspective it was the circumstances and not poor judgement that created the atrocious bill.

General Leslie’s $72,000 Veteran’s Moving Benefit 

Retired Lieutenant General Andrew Leslie explained to the media that his moving bill of $72,000 was correct and in full accordance with federal government policy. Mr. Harper’s government response suggested that Gen. Leslie’s move was against the “spirit” of the policy – it was later revealed that in the last five years, 21 generals have taken advantage of the veteran’s moving policy that has cost the federal government $600,000.  What is obvious to me; Retired General Leslie’s name has been besmirched, largely because he is now an advisor to Justin Trudeau and a likely Liberal candidate in the 2015 federal election.  A number of serious questions come to mind; firstly did the Conservative election machine misjudge the situation regarding Gen. Leslie’s rights as a veteran or was it just a quick attack on a Liberal advisor?  Secondly, what are General Leslie options and do they include a lawsuit?

Justin Trudeau’s Gaffes are Dangerous

Justin Trudeau emerged from last weekend’s Liberal policy conference in Montreal as a more confident, more mature leader of the Liberal Party of Canada – capable of being a prime minister.  What was particularly impressive in his speech last Saturday where he has staked out the political centre to be solely Liberal territory – Mr. Trudeau even invited members of opposing parties to join him in the political centre.  With all the hype over his dynamic persona there is a noticeable crack in the armor – Mr. Trudeau cannot handle news scrums and that could be his Achilles heel.  Mr. Trudeau has already shown that he can be too cute in his glib remarks – his handlers say that his remarks are being taken out of context – a dangerous defense for a politician.  

Will Trudeau Shine in the Sun?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 16) February 19, 2014

Trudeau’s Time in the Sun Has Come – Will Trudeau Shine?

Two of Canada’s most important political operatives (Prime Minister Steven Harper and  Leader of the Official Opposition, Thomas Mulcair) are scrambling, each trying for different reasons, to discredit the upstart leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Justin Trudeau.  Last April Mr. Trudeau emerged as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and a persona wrapped around his youthful looks and his father’s legacy.  His political opponents too quickly came to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau had no substance and aired their demeaning views nationwide – surprise, surprise – Justin Trudeau’s rating in political polls soared with the Canadian public thinking that Mr. Trudeau offered something different, HOPE.  What Mr. Harper and Mr. Mulcair didn’t realize, they were in part responsible for Mr. Trudeau’s success.  Following are a few examples of Mr. Harper and Mr. Mulcair’s miscalculations and errors: 

Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada

Mr. Harper’s personal credibility (and his ranking in the polls) suffered terribly in the past year and highlighted by his dismal performance in the House of Commons and his possible role in directing the activities of the “independent” parliamentary chamber of sober second thought.  The public expressed their suspicion and disappointment in the many polls taken, all strongly suggesting that Mr. Harper was/is wrong and his government is definitely going in the wrong direction.  More recently Mr. Harper’s government has again shown its arrogance with the introduction of the Fair Election’s Act – here Canada’s chief electoral officer has labeled Harper’s proposal to be “an affront to democracy”. 

Mr. Mulcair and the New Democratic Party of Canada

New Democrat leader Thomas Mulcair has also damaged his credibility with the electorate.  His poorly thought out positions on Senate reform (Mr. Mulcair feels the Senate should be abolished) and the negative views voiced in the United States on the Keystone XL pipeline debate reveals a lack of statesmanship and a lack of understanding of international relations with the United States – at the same time Mr. Mulcair wiped out the brownie points he accrued with the Canadian public on his masterful performance opposite the prime minister in the Senate scandal debate.  Mr. Mulcair has an added problem in that his power base is in Quebec and that makes him particularly vulnerable opposite the Justin Trudeau factor and yes, the Trudeau legacy factor. So is there more to the Trudeau image than his good looks and engaging personality?  Is there more substance than his coup last month on Senate reform when he boldly declared Liberal Senators to be “Independent Senators”?  Well Canadians are going to find out this weekend at the Liberal policy conference in Montreal where Mr. Trudeau is scheduled to make two critical policy speeches – the big question, Will Trudeau Shine?           

Games in Sochi, Good Stuff - Games in Ottawa, Just Beginning

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 15) February 12, 2014

Like millions of Canadians I’ve been glued to a television set watching the Sochi Olympics games – that’s not to say there are no games being played in Ottawa:      

Harper’s Proposal, the Fair Elections Act

The tight time-frame to debate Mr. Harper’s electoral reform bill has resulted in an outright rejection by the leader of the official opposition Thomas Mulcair – Mr. Mulcair said the Conservatives were cheaters in the last election, therefore they lack credibility in their proposed Fair Elections Act.  Justin Trudeau is equally suspicious saying that the legislation limits the investigative powers of the chief electoral officer.  Canada’s Chief Electoral Officer Marc Mayrand said the proposed legislation is “an affront to democracy”.  I liken the government’s proposed legislation to having a front-line police force without any investigative powers – powers to determine evidence, establish the possibility or likelihood of a wrong doing and authority to interrogate and arrest – it is then up to a judge to make a final determination of wrong doing.  Under the proposed bill, the only role of the chief electoral officer would be to inform the public of when, where and how to vote.  The whole proposal is bizarre – it wipes out the front line enforcers of a truly fair electoral process – hopefully the drafters of this ill-conceived bill see their errors.

Harper’s Proposed Aboriginal Education Program

Last October Mr. Harper put forward a sweeping aboriginal education program that puts the education of aboriginal people on to the backs of individual reserve authorities.  Recently Mr. Harper attached some hefty dollar figures which pleased a good number of First Nation’s chiefs, including Assembly of First Nation’s national chief, Shawn Atleo.  No doubt in my mind, Mr. Harper has shown that he is a true master at political strategy.  Mr. Harper has passed on the responsibility for the education of aboriginal youth to the chiefs of 611 reserves, ten provinces and three territories.  Mr. Harper has absolved the federal government of any liability attached to the education of aboriginals and he will not be attached to a residential school type legacy.  Mr. Harper has even downloaded the setting of performance and teaching standards on to the provinces and territories – it is worth noting the provinces and territories were not consulted on the matter. 

Trudeau’s Senate Reform Initiative

Another brilliant strategy was unveiled a couple of weeks ago by the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Justin Trudeau.  By declaring his Liberal Senators “Independent” he introduced a novel thought:  make Senators independent no matter what their political stripe might be.  The concept.is bold and just might work.  One media observer suggested that if Mr. Harper had declared his Conservative Senators to be “independent” it would be a stroke of genius.  So I’m going back to watching the Sochi Olympics - it’s easier and faster to pick the winners and losers, it’s the guy or girl wearing the gold.