Federal By-elections - Winners and losers

Whispering in the Wind November 26, 2013 WITW6

Prime Minister Harper Has to Face Up to Reality

Canada’s political landscape has changed dramatically in the last number of years and some would say not for the better.  In the last year Canadians have been exposed to two scandals which continue to be investigated by police authorities – charges are pending in both scandals.  What is so fascinating and very, very disturbing about the Senate Expenses scandal; the authorities are now investigating the role of the prime minister and his staff – there is a real possibility that criminal charges will be assigned to a number of people associated with related cover-ups including, Senator Mike Duffy and Prime Minister Harper’s former Chief of Staff, Nigel Wright.  To measure the mood of Canadians and how they view the Senate scandal a large number of polls have been undertaken and it’s never good news for Prime Minister Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada.  As to the mood of the electorate there were four federal by-elections held on Monday.  The results are fascinating and some are saying that the results are an omen of what is to come in 2015.

By-Election Results – The Winners and Losers 

November 25, 2013 saw federal by-elections take place in four ridings – Toronto Centre; Montreal Bourssa; Manitoba Brandon-Souris and Manitoba Provendcher.  The results did not change the party standings in the House of Commons and the status quo was maintained, two Conservative victories and two Liberal victories.  It goes without saying that the Liberals claimed a major victory for leader Justin Trudeau - Mr. Trudeau has made his mark, now he has to deliver.  Tom Mulcair of the NDP will have to lick his wounds because of his poor showing in Montreal and Steven Harper will have to admit that the Senate Expenses Scandal has tarnished his brand in Manitoba, if not all of western Canada.

Premier Alison Redford Endorsed by Party Faithful

Alison Redford was given a 77 percent approval rating by the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party last week in Red Deer.  Her comfortable support – political supporters call it strong – is under-rating her skills as a political leader.  From my perspective she proved to be a major political force in Canada because of three recent initiatives – thwarting the premier of British Columbia from grabbing onto some of Alberta’s royalties; sponsoring and helping to lead in the development of a Canadian Energy Strategy and negotiating an energy framework agreement with the People’s Republic of China.  Alison Redford still has a lot of work to do on the Alberta royalty issue and she has to find some way to get Prime Minister Harper (and the other provinces) engaged in a Nation Building exercise.   As an aside: to those that produced “The Building Alberta Plan 2013 Edition” add a fourth building block and label it “Nation Building”.         

Alberta's Royalty Windfall

Whispering in the Wind: (November 18, 2013) WITW 5

As unbelievable as it is, the Rob Ford saga isn’t the only political story worth discussing:

Northern Gateway Pipeline Project

After months of “frosty” dialogue and intense debate Alberta Premier Redford and British Columbia Premier Clark signed an accord that moves the Northern Gateway Pipeline proposal a step closer to reality.  In the first week of November the two premiers agreed to a strategy that will most likely see Alberta bitumen shipments going to Asia through coastal facilities at Kitimat, British Columbia in 2015.  Critical to the joint announcement – Alberta royalty sharing is not part of the agreement (never a consideration according to Alison Redford) – British Columbia will have to negotiate with Enbridge and other private companies if it wants to receive “additional” economic benefit.  The BC premier also announced that her government supports Premier Redford’s “Canadian Energy Strategy” initiative.  Initially Premier Clark insisted that Alberta share its bitumen royalties with British Columbia and it became a key condition if BC was to give its okay for the transport of bitumen through BC’s territory.  Premier Redford quietly, but firmly, responded that Alberta’s royalties were not up for any discussion and reminded the BC premier that 42 percent of her province’s natural gas shipments pass through Alberta territory – does it mean BC is willing to share her province’s royalties with Alberta?  With that clear consequence, Premier Clark’s strategy of royalty sharing collapsed.   As foolish as Premier Clark’s provincial strategy was, it is going to have consequences and will linger in arguments put forth by First Nations groups.  From my perspective Premier Redford is to be congratulated for her guiding the negotiations with British Columbia and her clear commitment for a “Canadian Energy Strategy”.  But the Northern Gateway Pipeline project doesn’t end with the Alberta – British Columbia Accord – there are a number of other so called obstacles yet to be dealt with.  There are the regulatory hearings being held in Ottawa, the more active Idle No More Movement that is starting to dictate national policy measures for their territories as well as more “accommodation” when it comes to development.  And for this week’s column, a new pricing structure for bitumen. 

Pricing Bitumen

The price of oil is set by an international bidding system where there are numerous buyers and numerous sellers.  The benchmark oil price most often used in North America is WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and is the number most often seen on your television sets.  For those who watch the WTI price, the WTI varies on a daily basis, sometimes significantly – in December, 2012 the WTI averaged $106 per barrel.  The benchmark oil price in Alberta, including oil sands bitumen, is WCS (Western Canada Select) – in December, 2012 the WCS averaged $75 per barrel.  What is most relevant to Alberta, there is a third standard which Alberta should be using when planning for its future prosperity, the Maya price.  To quote from an Alberta government release:  “Maya, a benchmark for heavy oil produced in Mexico, is similar in quality to Alberta’s WCS, but sells $43 more than Alberta’s bitumen (as of January 11, 2013) at $101 per barrel in the market.  Oil from Mexico has direct access to the ocean where it can reach international markets.  For that reason, it fetches a higher price than Alberta’s oil.”  Here is my take on this very complex, risky pricing structure – when the Northern Gateway Pipeline project is completed in 2015, the international price for Alberta bitumen (will continue to be determined by the international bidding system) is likely to increase significantly and could be sold at a premium to the WTI price.  No matter how you look at it, the revenue streams going to the producers, transporters and governments will grow dramatically as well – it is not just a windfall, it is a “continuous” windfall – and it might be the underlying reason for Premier Christy Clark of British Columbia insistence that her province participate in Alberta’s royalty system.  And for anybody that will listen, the revenue pie for Alberta’s energy sector (particularly the bitumen producers) is going to grow significantly after 2015 – now is the time to re-think who should be benefiting and who shouldn’t be benefiting from the expected, ongoing windfall – to the Alberta government, re-think Alberta’s royalty system and do it now!    

Canada's Reputation Destroyed!

Whispering in the Wind:  (November 11, 2013) WITW 4

Two international surveys have labeled Canada as the world’s most “reputable” nation.  Undertaken about a year ago, the survey respondents viewed Canada to be a stable and honorable nation with a governance system that should be held in high esteem.  The recent scandals and a number of other important events in Canada have cast a dark shadow over Canada’s image, both at home and abroad, with some observers saying that Canada’s image has been severely tarnished with others more politically motivated, suggesting that Canada’s reputation has been blown out of the water.  To judge those assessments in light of recent events is to judge the performance of Canada’s governance system and its political leadership – particularly and more specifically, Mr. Harper’s government and his focused leadership on the economy.  Following is my assessment of Canada’s political landscape and how it might have changed – hopefully for the better and in the end, hopefully making Canada a better, stronger nation. 

The Senate Expenses Scandal – has tempered a bit with the suspension of Senators Duffy, Wallin and Brazeau but there is more to come with the RCMP investigations.  What I find so disturbing is that the charges and counter charges made were made with a lot of political-speak with decisions railroaded through without due process.  In the absence of transparency and fair play I have concluded that there was a vendetta against the three Senators because they would not tow the Conservative Party line and the interference from the very top – so much for the independence of the Senate when passing judgment. 

The City of Toronto Scandal – the Rob Ford saga is proving to be a real tragedy for the mayor, the city and the country – and there doesn’t seem an acceptable political process to fix the problem.  One criteria for judging the world’s most “reputable” countries, is to have vibrant, dynamic cities to live in, to be safe in and to do business in and those goals  are being threatened with the way the Rob Ford saga is unfolding – at least in Toronto.   What I find surprising is that the province of Ontario isn’t stepping in to remove the mayor from office – after all Canadians expect provinces to maintain “peace, order and good government” within its municipalities.  The City of Toronto isn’t the only city suffering from an image problem.  The City of Montreal is also suffering from an image problem – in just one year the City of Montreal has had four mayors, two of which have been thrown out of office and are facing corruption charges. 

Prime Minister’s Role in Senate Scandal – has negatively impacted Prime Minister Harper’s image, both within Canada and around the world.  The prime minister’s refusal to be forthright when asked direct questions on his role in the so-called Senate Expenses Scandal and his direct, interfering role in the so-called “independent” Senate decision to suspend Senators, has left many people, both here and abroad, agreeing with former prime minister Joe Clark who suggested that Prime Minister Harper needs to “bring people into the facts” and tell the real story about what went on between Senator Mike Duffy and  Nigel Wright, Mr. Harper’s former Chief of Staff.  At this point in time Prime Minister Harper is severely damaging Canada’s reputation abroad.

Prime Minister’s Role in Nation Building – has become a big question mark!

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Save Canada - Save the Senate

Whispering in the Wind – (November 4, 2013) WITW: 3

In the last couple of weeks national politics has taken a turn for the worse with the so-called Senate Expense Scandal.  Politicians and staffers on the government side are running for cover with truth taking a back seat to a single conspiracy theory and a good number of cover-ups.  Responsibility, transparency and accountability are values that were so important to Prime Minister Harper in 2006, have all been sacrificed with misleading statements and basic obfuscation.  For the average Canadian there is a great deal of confusion and a lot of frustration.

The Senate Expenses Scandal

The Senate expense scandal has finally come to a kind-of conclusion with three Senators thrown under the Conservative bus without due process – Prime Minister Harper gave his final direction in a speech last Friday at the Conservative Policy Conference in Calgary.  In that speech he clearly insisted that Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau should be suspended from the Senate without pay.  I am pretty sure the Prime Minister’s directive could bend a bit, if only to show that the Senate is “independent” of his directive.  So it will now be up to the RCMP and the courts to determine the long term fate of the three Senators.  Stop the presses – information made on Monday indicates that Senator Gerstein of the Conservative Party was entertaining a payment of $30,000 to Mike Duffy for his residential expenses using the Conservative Party of Canada Fund.  When the expenses grew to $90,000 the offer was apparently withdrawn.  Stop the presses again – it is now believed that the $90,000 given to Mike Duffy might be a bribe, the RCMP are investigating – will the drama never end?       

The Role of the Prime Minister

Lingering questions continue to haunt Prime Minister Harper and the role he might have played in the Senate Expenses Scandal.  His stonewalling of legitimate questions put to him (his refusal to communicate or cooperate) is quite disturbing and leaves some to speculate that he might be covering up something greater than simple mistakes or misdemeanors.  As to advice for Prime Minister Harper and suggestions as to what he should do or say; the best advice comes from former prime minister Joe Clark who offered the following observations last weekend:  “Right now, I think [Prime Minister Harper] has to bring people into the facts ….he needs to tell the real story and I think he needs to seek some advice as to what’s the most effective way to do that ….”      

Rebuilding the Senate

The “parliament” of Canada is made up of three extremely important components; the Governor General, the House of Commons and the Senate.  Of the three pillars of Canada’s parliamentary governance the Senate is in desperate need of repair.  The Senate was severely damaged in the last year or so but it is also a result of many decades of external neglect and internal mismanagement.  From my perspective I think the broken Senate can and should be rebuilt and there are a number of upper house models to choose from.  For those who wish to see the Senate abolished I suggest that they review the historical importance of having a chamber that offers sober second, never mind keeping exuberant prime ministers in check.  Simply put; if you get rid of the Senate at a time of majority government, you are paving a highway to dictatorship – and that’s the threat.  

Harper: Abuse of Power or Just Politics

Whispering in the Wind – (October 28, 2013) WITW: 2

Canadians have been drawn into a bizarre, all-consuming soap opera entitled the “Senate Expenses Scandal”.  Actually the scandal has been around for about a year and there is no letting up, it’ll be around for some time to come.  What’s so fascinating about this scandal is that it has all the elements of an intense drama that has been known to bring down governments and its leaders.  The “Senate Expenses Scandal” is all about an elite group of well known political personalities with at least a couple of its stars offering passionate, tear-jerking monologues.  Other wan-a-be stars are offering contrary views and speeches leaving most political observers confused and befuddled.  Typical in this type of saga the truth is forgotten and substituted with intriguing conspiracies and mishandled cover-ups; all negotiated in the back rooms of the political power centres of Ottawa – and that in itself adds to the drama, anticipation and speculation.  The whole thing is wrapped up on daily news broadcasts leaving many Canadians feeling that they have been conned.  In the meantime a cloud of suspicion is hanging over the Ottawa skyline with important questions unanswered, all lost in the political fog.  When it comes to soap operas, it’s a winner but it does not make for good government.    From my perspective it is all about the governance of Canada and how it can go astray.  Simply put our politicians (both elected and appointed) have forgotten about their supreme obligation to the country, the constitution and the rule of law.  As the saga unfolds in the days and weeks to come I think it is important to keep in mind one important question:  Is the “Senate Expenses Scandal” a result of an “abuse of power” or is it just plain old Canadian party politics?   

Abuse of Power or Just Politics?

The :”Senate Expenses Scandal” continues to be a very fluid situation but a compromise appears to be developing that would at least delay any major confrontations until after the Conservative convention in Calgary.  It seems that the three Senators involved – Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau – will be given some sort of reprieve without further discussion.  If you ask me to speculate on the future of these three Senate stars:  Mike Duffy is toast; Patrick Brazeau will be dealt with in the courts on his assault charges, so he’s toast and Pamela Wallin will end up being a survivor.

The “Senate Expenses Scandal” has severely damaged a very important institution within the Parliament of Canada – the so-called Red Chamber is the chamber of sober second thought and is clearly challenged, if not under threat – it is broken and new codes of conduct must be introduced, new methods of selection of appointees must be considered, its independence from the standing government must be strengthened.  From my perspective it is extremely important that the Senate be strengthened and that it remain a chamber of sober second thought – it must be repaired and not discarded.  It’s going to be up to Prime Minister Harper to lead the charge.

The “Senate Expenses Scandal” will have a major impact on the Conservative Party of Canada and their conference deliberations in Calgary.  The Senate scandal exposed a rift within the Conservative caucus of the Senate.  A severe censure motion was tabled by the Conservative leader in the Senate and was against three Conservatives sitting in the Senate – the “slash and burn” strategy appeared to follow the wishes of Prime Minister Harper.  Not all Conservative Senators agreed and wanted “due process” – and that was the first exposure that rifts exists within the Conservative Party ranks.  How it plays out on the convention floor in Calgary is anybody’s guess but no question in my mind there is a split – the “Progressive Movement” and the “Reform Movement” based in western Canada. 

US On The Brink

Whispering in the Wind – October 21, 2013 – WITW: 1

Over the past few weeks political events in both the United States and Canada have caused concern amongst a good number of observers.  Just days ago the United States was on a precipice of disaster with the government shutdown and the nation close to financial default of its obligations.  The crisis was temporally averted but will return with a vengeance in early 2014 unless something dramatic happens in US politics.  In Canada the RCMP continues to investigate possible fraudulent dealings of some prominent Senators and the role the Prime Minister’s office might have played in the debacle.  To avoid attention Prime Minister Harper is seemingly ignoring the issue and is definitely trying to avoid discussing the matter.  But let me offer my views on the United States as many people are wiping their brow saying that only through political brinkmanship was chaos avoided. 

On the Brink of Political Disaster?

The United States is drowning in debt, a debt that is currently estimated at over $16 trillion.  In the years 2000 to 2007 the national debt in the United States grew by 50 percent, from 6 to 9 trillion dollars.  In 2008 the debt grew to over $10 trillion (due in large part to a $700 billion bailout of the banks and other financial institutions). No matter how you look at it the US is in deep trouble and creditors are expressing some concern – observers in China are suggesting that it is time to de-Americanize the global financial system.  To deal with the crisis some American politicians and financial experts are saying that there are only two ways to deal with the debt crisis in the United States; one is to cut spending – unlikely, in large part due to President Obama’s stance on ObamaCare.  The second option offered is for the US to print more dollars and that means raising the so called debt ceiling.  It is obvious that pumping more dollars into a broken system will have a major impact on interest rates and inflation.  Also expanding the money supply will, under current conditions, threaten economic recovery, growth and stability.  Neither of these two options appears feasible largely because of a stubborn president and a divided, dysfunctional Congress.  The political system is in gridlock and the leadership cannot agree on the role of government in times of crisis.  In the last few days President Obama has voiced his willingness to work with “anyone” who wants to address his country’s problems – a number of observers have opined that it is a first step if the invitation is more that political speak.

 

Nation Building Strategy in the United States

Avoiding an Armageddon situation in the US is not going to be an easy task, it is going to be a monumental task and time is short.  The first step will fall upon President Obama who needs to get the weakened Republican Party (leadership) and the confused Democratic Party (leadership) working together, with a common purpose: build and implement a Nation Building Strategy.  And the Nation Building agenda must include building blocks like:  addressing the ill-effects of globalization on the US ; re-writing the taxation codes; stop (and possibly repatriate) the many billions of dollars that have left the country for safer havens; and introduce policies and regulations that support a re-building of basic industries in the United States.

The “X” Factors

Like all grand political strategies there are unknowns and risks.  One of the biggest unknowns for President Obama is going to be the reaction and the response from the small business community and from the major corporate giants?  President Obama has to gain the active support from the captains of corporate America if he intends to re-build America.  To a significant degree the standard of living in the United States cannot be sustained if it is based on borrowed money – so the captains of industry should be interested if not supportive of a re-built America.  On the political side the biggest unknown is the Tea Party movement, a movement that is growing fast and is particularly strong and prevalent in the southern US?  Here the unknown is how to harness the good ideas coming from the Tea Party leadership and separate those good ideas from the unacceptable extremist rhetoric.  Representative Ted Cruz (the Calgary born Republican representing the Lone Star State of Texas) has emerged as a leader of about 50 members of Congress with Tea Party sympathies.  They, as a block, represent the extreme right wing perspective in the Republican Party.  Mr. Cruz and his gang make some important points that cannot and should not be discounted based on their extremist association and support.  A third unknown factor is the response from the international community, specifically China.  As already mentioned there are muses about de-Americanizing the international financial system but China’s leadership knows full well it’s too early to make a play on world dominance.  Equally the European Union is encountering its own financial problems attached to the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) so President Obama will be given some time to sort things out internally and begin the process of re-building the United States which in itself will help to stabilize the world.

Canada, ONE NATION FOR ALL

Ed Shaske Article No. 254 (February 25, 2013)

Whispering in the Wind

CANADA, ONE NATION FOR ALL!

The inflamed discord between Assembly of First Nations chiefs and the prime minister has seemingly calmed from the goings-on just weeks ago.  The fighting words and rowdy demonstrations; all captured under the “Idle No More” banner in December and January, has shifted to tamer discussions behind closed doors.  Many Canadians were and still are outraged by the two months of chaos with most of the confusion being caused, if not engineered by a few of the more radical aboriginal leaders.  The “Idle no More” movement, initiated by four women in Saskatchewan, did have merit when it was focused on the omnibus legislation passed by Prime Minister Harper’s majority government. When the Assembly of First Nations chiefs embraced the sentiments of “Idle no More” and then took “political” ownership of the slogan, things changed big time.  As well the Assembly of First Nation chiefs expanded the “Idle no More” agenda dramatically to include “nation to nation” negotiations, with at least one chief advocating “sovereignty” of the Indian nations.  The response from the Canadian public on the politicization of “IDLE NO MORE” has been mixed with some Canadians indicating; ENOUGH IS ENOUGH and asking that Prime Minister Harper undertake appropriate action to deal with the “Indian Question” once and for all time – and do it with a firm hand.  I am not a particular fan of Prime Minister Harper and his autocratic approach to governance, but he might be the man to carry the country through this mess – and he needs to do it through definition rather than accommodation.  If he needs a slogan, how about a more positive approach with:  Canada, ONE NATION FOR ALL.