TPP - A March Toward Trouble for Canada

*Whispering in the Wind (WITW 101) December 16, 2015

One of the more controversial topics discussed (debated) during the 78 day federal election campaign was trade and specifically, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.  As it stands, the TPP is an “economic” agreement between 12 Pacific Rim nations that still requires legal review and ratification from individual member-country governments.  From a Canadian perspective, the proposed agreement has a complicating twist – the TPP was negotiated over a seven year period under the supervision of Stephen Harper and his Conservative government.  The TPP is now being reviewed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government for ratification.  The details of the “more than just trade” agreement was agreed to on October 5, 2015 and made public on November 5, 2015.   Mr. Trudeau’s position on the TPP during the election campaign was that he wouldn’t comment on an agreement that he hadn’t seen.  When the agreement was made public (after the election) Prime Minister Trudeau said it would be appropriately analysed and considered by his new government.  It is still under review and rightly so, the consequences for Canada are huge. 

The TPP is a Big Deal!

The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is just one of the latest efforts to offer greater discipline and control over the economic affairs of member states.  The 12 participating states (Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, United States, and Vietnam) have tentatively agreed to an economic agreement that encompasses about 40 percent of the world’s output.  Three other Pacific Rim nations (Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) have expressed interest in joining the partnership and should that occur, over 50 percent of the world’s output will be guided by TPP principles and rules.  Important to point out, United States’ President Barack Obama is the lead advocate of the TPP while China and India are on the side lines watching how the TPP agreement unfolds – the Chinese and Indians have their own plan for how trade and commerce should be conducted in the 21^st century.

What the TPP Offers     

The TPP is a massive 30 chapter agreement encompassing a wide range of elements and conditions.  The aim of the TPP is to offer freer, more disciplined trade in goods and services within the 12 member trading bloc.  At the same time the agreement incorporates measures that will restrict some government policy initiatives and limit national (sub-national) governments from operating in the public’s interest.  In summary, the TPP advances the interests of global corporations and at the same time, restricts governments from acting in the national, public interest when it comes to the environment, technology and investment – and that’s not good news for Canada and Nation Building.

TPP’s Impact on Canada

In the early days, Canadians were viewed as a nation of “hewers of wood and drawers of water” with the nation operating at the behest of the great empires of Europe.  Today, things are different and an independent Canada is exporting much more than just lumber, fish and beaver pelts.  The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is just one example of how nations like Canada are reacting to a drastically changing, globalized framework.  Following are a few points Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might consider prior to offering the TPP agreement to Canada’s parliament for ratification:

1.    Canada has trade treaties with four of the larger members of the TPP (Peru, Chili, United States and Mexico) where tariffs are already low and a dispute settlement procedure in place that is functioning.  For the other seven TPP members, Canada is running a trade deficit of $5-8 billion annually – Canada is buying more than we are selling.  80 percent of Canada’s exports to these seven countries are raw or semi-processed goods (beef, coal, lumber), while 80 percent of Canada’s imports are high value-added goods (autos, machinery, computer, electronic components).  Analysts have suggested that the impact of the TPP on Canada’s overall economy will be minimal in terms of GNP growth, but most likely will further erode Canada’s manufacturing sector. 

2.   A good number of the rules embedded in the TPP agreement appear to be modeled after existing United States trade law and that could mean trouble for Canada.  One element embedded in the technology chapter of the TPP is healthcare and drugs which could prove to be a disaster for Canada and its efforts to control healthcare and pharmaceutical drug costs.

3.   Possibly the most controversial issue facing Prime Minister Trudeau and Canada’s participation in the TPP will be the environmental component of the TPP and how it might be “re-drafted” – a result of the Climate Change Conference and the goals set last week in Paris.  How the 12 member states re-state their environmental goals and specific targets on greenhouse gas emissions is without doubt going to be intense and lengthy process.  For Canada, Prime Minister Trudeau has promised to meet with Canadian Premiers within 90 days to start the discussion on setting emission targets and how to achieve them – it will take time.  Does it mean that ratification of the TPP will be held up – probably?  Does it mean opening up further negotiations on other aspects of the TPP – an open question? 

Overall, the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement is likely to be held in limbo for some time, possibly years – and that’s good news for Canada.  As the country awaits Mr. Trudeau’s assessment of the TPP, the haunting, historical statement remains; will Canada return to be simply “hewers of wood and drawers of water”?

The World - Going to Hell in a Handbasket?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 102) December 9, 2015

A few weeks ago I got a message from a well-informed reader who mused about the world’s political landscape, he observed “…how much the world has changed in the last 50 years….not sure if it’s because we have instant reports from around the globe or if it’s actually going down the drain…either way, it can be tough remaining optimistic.”  While I whole heartedly agree with the reader’s observations, my views go a step further and are much more ominous of what is likely to be if reasons aren’t determined and solutions not found.

As to the reasons for the present struggles, wars and general mayhem there is little doubt in my mind, there are five realities that are quite evident today and didn’t exist 50 years ago, realities that must be addressed in very short order:

1.   The war against ISIS in the middle-east must be upgraded, if for no other reason, to contain the spread of ISIS as an Islamic State.  Canada’s decision to withdraw its fighter jets from the war zone is a mistake that must be compensated for by offering much more support to US led coalition forces.

2.   The war against domestic terrorism must be upgraded to include   Muslim community efforts to eliminate radicalization measures.  Canada’s Security Measures Act (C-51) must be used with determination and close supervision by parliament.

3.   Individual rights and freedoms opposite a citizen’s obligation to the state must be clearly defined with parameters and well clearly promulgated to the nation.  Hate speech and the promotion of hate speech should be considered an indictable offence.

4.   Nation building initiatives are sorely lacking in Canada.  To build a nation that is more secure and sustainable opposite selling off assets to other nations, or allowing other nations to invest in Canada on their terms is unacceptable.  Clearly define what it means to be a Canadian.  Review the Trans Partnership (TPP) agreement and determine what is best for Canada in light of some very dangerous economic forces and trends.

5.    Climate change measures being formulated and agreed to internationally must be agreed to domestically as well.  The standards set over the next while should be incorporated into any and all past, present, future agreements.  The Trans Pacific Partnership agreement should incorporate the “wished for targets” set at the Paris Climate Change Conference, and that means opening up the TPP for further negotiations. 

Trudeau, Off to a Running Start

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 100) December 2, 2015

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s agenda for Canada is not only very long, it is very complex and touches on some of the basics of governance.  During the election campaign Mr. Trudeau promised big change as to how the country would be governed and committing to something like 171 promises if he and his Liberal party were to be elected as government.  October 19 saw Justin Trudeau winning 184 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons, thus forming a majority government – two weeks later he announced a smaller cabinet with 15 women members (fulfilling at least two of his promises).  Another promise made was to bring 25,000 Syrian refugees into Canada by the end of 2015 – the scheduling has been re-vamped; 10,000 Syrian refugees by the end of December and a further 15,000 by the end of February, 2016.   Regarding the new government’s commitment on “climate change” targets, the new prime minister has let it be known to Canadians and the international community that the green- house gas emission targets, as set by the previous government are to be the starting point and more ambitious targets will be set in cooperation with his provincial counterparts.  Not to be forgotten are the tax measures Mr. Trudeau promised to the middle class and the wealthiest Canadians – and that means immediate changes to the tax code are necessary, if the tax breaks (or hits) are to be in effect for the 2016 taxation year.  To deal with the taxation issue and to give Canadians a better feel for what is to come in the next year or so, Canada’s Parliament will convene on December 3^rd, starting with the Speech from the Throne.  Overall Mr. Trudeau has demonstrated that he is off to a running start and has shown, at least domestically, that he intends to follow-up on his 171 commitments, but only after due, responsible consideration.  Internationally, I think it is a different story – primarily because of Mr. Trudeau’s decision to withdraw Canada’s fighter jet support from the US led coalition and the war against ISIS.  In my view, Mr. Trudeau misjudged the situation in the middle- east and the coalition’s strategy to wipe out the ISIS base of operations in Iraq and Syria – and there no doubt in my mind, there are consequences when a country breaks rank with a coalition. 

Dealing With Terrorism - the Canadian Experience

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 99) November 25, 2015

Democratic governments around the world are on high alert in their battle against the murderous, seemingly haphazard actions of extremist Islamic groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda.  The most recent example of indiscriminate carnage occurred a week ago at a luxury hotel in the African state of Mali – killed 19 – Al-Qaeda and two other groups are claiming responsibility.  But it was the ISIS attacks in Paris two weeks ago that sparked a more heighten level of anxiety and concern amongst urban populations in Europe and elsewhere – many are now thinking and saying:  if it can happen in Paris, it can happen anywhere.  For the French government (and for other governments as well), the question has become:  what tools are required and necessary to counter terrorism threats and actions?  President Francois Hollande of France has voiced some of his views and ideas, ideas that seem to link to Canada’s experience with ISIS style terrorism.

Canada’s Experience 

Not to be forgotten in any discussion on what to do in the fight against terrorism is Canada’s experience – the murder of Cpl. Nathan Cirillo and attack on Canada’s Parliament Hill thirteen months ago.  And just a few months later, the government (of the day) passed its Anti-Terrorism Act (C-51).  While C-51 enhances the powers of police and investigative authorities (as it should) the Act does not allow for any kind of parliamentary, bi-partisan oversight in the operations of the security authorities involved.  Nor does the law (as it exists) retain the sanctity of being a Canadian and having Canadian citizenship.  Fortunately the “new” government in Ottawa is reviewing the law and has promised to delete the elements related to citizenship and add elements to have appropriate, bi-partisan oversight.  The person in charge of this monumental task is the seasoned, well respected Minister of Public Safety, Ralph Goodale.  Mr. Goodale will have to clearly define freedom of expression and conduct versus an individual’s responsibility to Canada, as a citizen.  While Mr. Goodale’s immediate focus is on the terrorism threats being promoted by groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, there is the disturbing reality of home-grown terrorism and not to be forgotten, other special interest groups that use more militant actions to achieve their objectives – Mr. Goodale is walking a very fine line in his most pressing responsibility; achieving homeland security.

A Final Thought

In a recent Canadian television program on terrorism, the assembled panel of experts (military and academic) concluded that the best way to deal with the existing scourge is by assembling the best, most reliable INFORMATION possible and then acting quickly, no holds barred.      

ISIS Attacks on Paris, A Game Changer

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 98) November 18, 2015

Around the world, terrorist activity seems to be occurring at an accelerated rate.  In the last three weeks alone there have been at least four horrific events which have been coordinated by evil workings of the ISIS movement.  World leaders are rightly describing these activities as; threatening, outrageous and inhumane – and something must be done in haste. 

-      October 31, 2015 – A Russian aircraft flying from Egypt to St. Petersburg, Russia, exploded in mid-air killing all 224 persons on board.  A militant group claims responsibility for the explosion and claims ISIS affiliation.   

-      November 9/10, 2015 – Seven beheaded bodies (4 men, 2 women, one child) is dumped in Zabul province, Afghanistan.  Some government officials blame ISIS for the atrocious act, others label the Taliban movement as responsible – worthy to note, ISIS has made major inroads into Afghanistan over the past year by attracting support from disenchanted members of the Taliban movement.

-      November 12, 2015 – Two explosions in Beirut, Lebanon killed 43 people, wounding 239 others.  An explosive-laden motorcycle was detonated first, followed by a suicide bomber wearing a vest of explosives – apparently there was a second suicide bomber who was killed by one of the two explosions.  ISIS claims responsibility for the explosions.     

-      November 13, 2015 – The ISIS coordinated attacks in Paris last Friday caused the death of 129 people, with 352 wounded (including 99 in critical condition).  The carnage in Paris took place in six different locations involving 3 ISIS commando units.  The reaction from the French government has been swift and without compromise.  President Francois Hollande (representing political views on the right of France’s political spectrum) has asked the United States and Russia to set aside their differences and fight with others to eliminate the scourge of ISIS terrorism – an excellent point, if it can be done?  President Hollande also wants to increase French fighting power against ISIS in the Syrian-Iraq war zone, maintain emergency measures within France, re-open the country’s constitution to limit travel within the European Union and allow the French government to withdraw French citizenship from suspected French terrorists.    

Some Final Thoughts – For the Time Being!

The horrific attacks in Paris last week represents something very telling in geo-political terms and must be studied carefully by western governments.  A number of well-informed observers indicate that ISIS’s strategy is shifting away from establishing an Islamic State (in Iraq and Syria) to creating fear and havoc within “western” states and their capitals.  ISIS picked Paris as its first target to create fear and chaos, all to cover up their short comings in its traditional military war zone.  From what is written, ISIS is losing major battles in the Syrian-Iraq war zone, largely because of Russia’s entry into the mix. 

As to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s performance on the international stage in the past week or so, it is unfortunate that he is still acting and talking like he is still on the campaign trail.  Being Prime Minister of Canada means you have to adjust to new, changing conditions and the attacks in Paris is a game changer – and that means keeping ones options open and available.  The attacks in Paris have definitely changed geo-political thinking in Europe, Asia and North America – and now Russia has changed its position on Syria and become a significant player in the world’s fight against terrorism.  Another more domestic point about Mr. Trudeau’s performance as he travels from Turkey to the Philippines – has the prime minister’s promise to ‘rule by Cabinet’ been temporarily set to one side as he deals with international matters?  As to the prime minister’s fixed views on withdrawing fighter jets from the Iraq-Syria war zone, I agree with Canada’s stance but Canada has to offer something more than just enhanced training, if Canada is to remain a relevant player in the war against terrorism.  On the matter of bringing in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the year’s end, Mr. Trudeau (and his Cabinet) will have to change the timing and security screening agenda.  Otherwise, the prime minister is going to run into major problems with the provinces – and remember, the petitions have already started.