Trudeau's Work Schedule - Unbelievable

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 97) November 11, 2015

A Final Word, the Trudeau Landslide

Canadians continue to be in awe of the October 19 election results and the dramatic change that occurred.  Political pundits and pollsters have analyzed the election data and have drawn some interesting conclusions that might be a surprise to some who are convinced that the election was only about getting rid of Stephen Harper.  Actually Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party were able to retain much of their conservative support.  It was the increased voter turnout that did the Conservatives in – in the 2011 election voter turnout was at 61.1 percent. In the 2015 election the turnout was 68.5 percent – the 7 percent increase in voter turnout was by-in-large anti-Harper, anti-Conservative.  As to the demise of Thomas Mulcair and the NDP, it was all about the niqab issue in Quebec.  According to pollsters there was a 10 percent shift in voter preference away from the NDP.  The NDP ended up losing 45 seats in Quebec with the Liberals gaining 32 seats.  As to Mr. Trudeau’s success, I am convinced that Mr. Trudeau was able to maintain a positive, up-beat, consensus-building image throughout the campaign, while his opponents projected fear, hesitation and caution.  In the end, Mr. Trudeau’s approach motivated about seven percent of the population (who didn’t vote in the 2011 election), to vote.

Trudeau’s Way Forward         

In the aftermath of the October 19th election, Prime Minister Trudeau is seriously trying to present a government that is more transparent and accountable.  Mr. Trudeau’s list of promises is long and ambitious but he has already shown that he is willing to take risks (i.e. his Cabinet appointments).  As to the prime minister’s adventures on the international front, his four meetings scheduled will be both revealing and telling on what’s in store for Canada under a Trudeau administration.   And to top it all up, Canada’s 42^nd Parliament will resume sitting on December 3 with the Governor General reading the Speech from the Throne on December 4.   

Justin Trudeau Announces His Cabinet

November 4th saw Justin Trudeau sworn in as Canada’s 23^rd prime minister and a new government structure with a 30 member Cabinet.  Aside from the normal juggling of bureaucratic responsibilities because there are fewer ministries, Mr. Trudeau established something that could haunt him in the future appointments – the 50 percent male / female quota system.  While it is commendable to have a goal of gender parity, there is a question of having a merit based Cabinet?  When questioned about his decision, Mr. Trudeau glibly responded with “Because it’s 2015”.  My advice to Mr. Trudeau, stop the terse rhetoric and explain your position. 

Mr. Trudeau’s Debut on the World Stage        

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is confident that he has a clear and convincing mandate to change how government business is done in Ottawa and the rest of Canada.  In the next month, Mr. Trudeau will be on the “big” stage meeting the “big” players of the world.  Mr. Trudeau’s international agenda is unfolding very quickly, is it too much for the “new” prime minister?

November 15-16, 2015 – the G20 Summit Conference in Antalya, Turkey; likely topics on the agenda: trade and finance; refugee crisis; climate change.              

November 16-18, 2015 – Mr. Trudeau flies immediately to the Philippines for the Asia- Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) Summit, Manila, Philippines.  Likely topics on the agenda:  trade and finance; the Trans-Pacific Partnership; climate change.

November 27-29, 2015 – Commonwealth Summit in Fort St. Angelo, Malta, likely topics on the agenda:  climate change; trade and finance; refugee crisis.   (Queen Elizabeth II, Duke of Edinburgh, Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall are expected to attend).

November 30-December 11, 2015 – United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, France – apparently Mr. Trudeau will only attend part of the conference.

The Trudeau Government: A Daunting Adventure

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 96) November 4, 2015

A good number of Canadians continue to bask in the “sunny ways” of Trudeau mania and the Liberal Party’s successes on October 19 – and a decisive win it was.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet are now facing a four year agenda that is to reflect real change from what was.  At the same time, the Conservative Party of Canada is mired in its own reality; Stephen Harper is no longer at the helm of the “ship of state” – something he, himself created.  What’s so devastating about the Conservative Party, it’s fractured.  There are two distinct groups, some infighting (the Red Tories versus the Blue Tories) with each group having a different view on governance, management and strategy.  And the question for conservatives in Canada: Is there anybody strong enough to mend a torn party, or is it just a failed experiment? 

Justin Trudeau Needs to Set His Priorities, With Some Haste

Over the course of the lengthy 78 day federal election campaign, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau offered something like 171 commitments (promises) to the people of Canada, if he was to form a Liberal government.  Well, the unlikely happened and Justin Trudeau is now Canada’s prime minister with a “majority” government.  As to whether Prime Minister Trudeau and his government can accomplished what was promised within a four year timeframe, only time will tell?  As to Mr. Trudeau’s responses to immediate circumstances and situations, he has not hesitated to act.  Mr. Trudeau has already notified Barack Obama that Canada’s direct military actions in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) using fighter jets will cease – and Canadian training efforts in the waring zones will increase.  Mr. Trudeau’s commitment to make Canada home to 25,000 Syrian refugees by Christmas has not changed since the election, even though Canadian hosting organizations and agencies feel there should be a delay.  Mr. Trudeau has invited the provincial premiers (and leaders of the federal opposition parties) to participate in the upcoming environmental conference in Paris, France.  The invitations are an effort to make federal governance more transparent, inclusive and more responsive to other ideas and other governments – Mr. Trudeau is trying to develop some sort of consensus on setting environmental targets?  As to economic / financial / budget matters, Canadians most likely will have to wait until January or February of next year for the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne.  As to keeping Canadians informed, Prime Minister Trudeau could assemble a First Minister’s Conference on the State of the Canadian Union in early December – that would keep Canadians informed as to what is to come and more comfortable with Trudeau’s new approach to governance.

A Footnote

I present this article for publication 24 hours prior to Mr. Trudeau being sworn in as Prime Minister of Canada and the announcement of who is in the Trudeau cabinet.  Speculation is that Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet will be smaller than what has existed in the past and the cabinet will have equal numbers in terms of males and females.  While gender is a criteria in filling any vacancy or post (along with ethnic and regional diversity), it is important for Mr. Trudeau to keep in mind that experience and capacity to deal with issues related to a specific portfolio are equally, if not the most important criteria when judging who sits where.    

Canada's Political Landscape: Who's in Charge of What?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 95) October 28, 2015

While Justin Trudeau basks in the glory of an election win his two main adversaries are licking their wounds (and egos) – both questioning how they allowed the Liberal upstart to move from a third place standing, at the beginning of the campaign, to win a Liberal, “majority” government.  Thomas Mulcair seems to have taken the high road saying in his concession speech:  “Canadians have asked us all to work for them.  We will not let them down.”  Mr. Mulcair’s remarks suggest that he will likely continue to lead the NDP for at least the next year or two, if only to see how the Liberal leader stacks up to his 171 promises.  If Mr. Mulcair is to survive, he will have to tone down his angry rhetoric and prove that his view of “leftist” politics is unique to that of the Liberal view – at the same time, paying particular attention to what is best for the people of Quebec.  As to Stephen Harper’s views on his party’s election losses, he offered to his electoral base:  “While tonight’s result is certainly not the one we had hoped for, the people are never wrong … Know also this as well, the disappointment you also feel is my responsibility and mine alone.”  It is understandable that Mr. Harper was disappointed, even devastated by the election results but I am confused as to why he left it up to the party organization to announce his resignation as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.  It might be an ego thing and he just didn’t want to face reporters with numerous questions about his election loss but I am more suspicious – something more serious is afoot within the Conservative Party itself.  Mr. Harper’s decision to resign as party leader and stick around as a Member of Parliament will have some interesting and revealing consequences.  In the meantime Conservatives will be selecting an “interim” leader (at least three are in contention) and scheduling a “permanent” leadership selection process (that will take at least a year or two) – so who is going to be pulling the strings of power within the Conservative Party of Canada, a party that is obviously fractured?

Remembering October 22, 2014

It is almost exactly a year since Canadians experienced the appalling act of “domestic” terrorism on Parliament Hill – the shooting of unarmed honor guard Corporal Nathan Cirillo at Canada’s National War Memorial in Ottawa.  The event shocked the confidence of many Canadians and eventually allowed the prime minister of the day to pass legislation (C-51).  The legislation allowed for increased/expanded security measures to fight terrorism activity both within Canada and elsewhere.  Liberal leader Justin Trudeau supported the government’s anti-terrorism measures because of immediate circumstances, but also said that if he was elected prime minister, he would amend the legislation to protect certain freedoms of Canadians.  As well Trudeau recommended that the government study the “root causes” of home grown terrorism – Stephen Harper pooh-poohed Mr. Trudeau’s idea, suggesting that such studies were just academic pursuits – a few weeks later, the Harper government initiated studies on the causes of terrorism.  While political circumstances have dramatically changed since the death of Corporal Cirillo the question remains, how can a country like Canada deal with terrorism threats and retain freedom of dissent?  How prime minister-elect Justin Trudeau deals with the treats of terrorism, conflict and dissension will be one of the top issues the new Liberal government will have to address – and it’s not going to be easy task.  My thought on what has to be his first step; Mr. Trudeau will have to clearly distinguish between the rights and freedoms of individual Canadians and the individual’s responsibility to respect / follow the standards set by Canada’s society and its constitution.    

A Justin Trudeau Landslide

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 94) October 21, 2015

The votes have been counted and in the good old fashioned Canadian tradition, the results and impacts are uncertain:

                                                 Voter Support                          Seats                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Canada                       Canada  Alberta

Conservative Party                         32%                                  99        29

New Democratic Party                   19%                                  44          1

Liberal Party                                    40%                               184          4

Green Party                                       3%                                   1         - -

Bloc Quebecois                                5%                                 10         - -

Other                                                 - -%                                  - -         - -

The Leaders – What Went Right, What Went Wrong?

October 19’s general election is now a part of Canadian history and for the major players, it was a shocker.  For Justin Trudeau there was total elation – not only did he win an election using a much more confident, positive campaign strategy (something the general public desperately needed), he is now prime minister-elect with a “majority” Liberal government.  For Stephen Harper there was disappointment and embarrassment – the Harper Way of governing was rebuffed by a good portion of the country’s electorate.  After a respectful concession speech, Mr. Harper later admitted his failure and said he would resign as party leader.  When the incumbent prime minister realized that his fear and division strategy wasn’t working in the minds of the electorate, he got confused and then desperate in his tactical decisions (e.g. matching up with the Ford bros two days before the election).  Thomas Mulcair proved himself as a very principled leader of the Official Opposition and demonstrated it well in his confrontations with Stephen Harper in the House of Commons on the Mike Duffy scandal.  At the end of August (still early in the election campaign) Mr. Mulcair and the NDP had a 40 percent approval rating from the Canadian electorate, well above his rivals.  Nevertheless, Mr. Mulcair’s more confrontational tone (something that might work in a courtroom or the House of Commons) was what did him in with the general public, particularly in the province of Quebec.  How Mr. Mulcair handled the niqab issue was his “poisoned pill” in the province of Quebec – what was such a disaster for Mr. Mulcair ended up to be of great benefit for  Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois.  Gilles Duceppe more than doubled his party’s presence in the new House of Commons.  As to Elizabeth May and her single seat win on Vancouver Island there was disappointment for the Greens and the environmental movement in Canada.  Nevertheless, Elizabeth May should not be counted out of the political picture when it comes to being more involved with developing Canadian environmental policy – that is, if the new Liberal prime minister lives up to his campaign words of being more inclusive.

Harper’s Defeat   

Stephen Harper’s decision to step aside as leader of “his” Conservative Party of Canada is going to have a profound effect on the future of the conservative movement in Canada.  For Mr. Harper the results of the October 19 election were disappointing.  My assessment, Mr. Harper was not able to coalesce the “Red” Tories in eastern Canada with his “Blue” Tory base on the prairies.  Now that Mr. Harper has stepped aside, does it mean that the fusion of the Alliance-Reform movement with the long standing Progressive Conservative Party in December of 2003 was/is a failed experiment – made more complicated by Mr. Harper’s more aggressive, controlling management style?  No doubt in my mind, the Conservative Party of Canada is in turmoil and now that Mr. Harper is moving on, who will be going to replace him?