The Demise of Stephen Harper

Whisper in the Wind (WITW 93) October 14, 2015

This is my last “kick at the cat” when it comes to the October 19 election, so if you’re on the wrong side of what is to come, read and weep. 

The Polls

Public opinion polls are indicating that the three major parties and their leaders are not admitting defeat when it comes to support from the Canadian electorate.  The latest polls are showing Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 34.2 percent support, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 31.7 percent and Thomas Mulcair’s NDP at 23.4 percent.  Public support appears to be swinging toward Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, all at the expense of both the NDP and the Conservatives.  Another poll taken a while back by the Ipsos Reid organization indicated that 70 percent of the Canadian electorate want a change of direction in Ottawa – suggesting that the three way political log-jam of confusion has been around for some time.  Said another way and voiced by the former premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams:  “Anything But Conservative”. 

All is Not Well in the Conservative Camp 

While the Ipsos Reid poll suggests 70 percent of Canada’s population is dissatisfied with Mr. Harper’s government, there is indication that there is some softening of support within the rank and file of the conservative movement itself.  Amongst the conservative elite, the feelings are all about Mr. Harper and his style of governance, the feeling is mixed.  Former Prime Minister Joe Clark is quite critical of Mr. Harper and his governance style; including his approach to foreign affairs matters and specifically his dealing in Ukraine.  Mr. Clark also questions Mr. Harper’s approach to the Senate expenses scandal and the Duffy trial.  The former Progressive Conservative prime minister recommends that Mr. Harper “bring people into the facts … {Stephen Harper] needs to tell the real story and he needs to seek some advice as to what’s the most effective way to do that”.  Brian Mulroney, another former conservative prime minister chastised Stephen Harper for his spats with the Supreme Court of Canada; his negative attitude toward the United Nations and his un-relationship with the United States’ president, Barack Obama.  An even more caustic rebuke of Stephen Harper was spewed out by former Progressive Conservative premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams.  In a recent interview Mr. Williams observed that Stephen Harper can’t be trusted:  “Over time we have seen this man cannot be trusted.  He had no integrity.  He’s trying to stifle democracy.  There is no end to what he’s doing.”  Danny Williams ended up saying  “He’s a lousy prime minister who’s divisive.”  To balance the stark rebukes of the more progressive conservative right thinkers, Preston Manning (the guru of the Reform Party and thought to be Stephen Harper’s mentor) has very strong reservations about Mr. Harper’s management style (ruthless) and strongly disagrees with some of his legislation (the Fair Elections Act).  As to whether any of these disagreements and hostile voices are pervasive within the general conservative movement,  and whether these elitist voices are going to impact the voting intentions amongst the rank and file in the Conservative Party on Election Day, only time will tell? I hope it will, so let me add My Perspective .  As a somewhat disillusioned conservative, let me make three points which I feel should be considered when deciding who to vote for on October 19.  First, Mr. Harper has in the past 10 years become a “one man party” and that in itself is a very dangerous situation in Canada – for a single individual to wield so much unbridled control and power in a democracy like Canada is simply unacceptable.  Second, Mr. Harper is a laissez-fairest (an individual who feels that the economy should be in the hands of the corporate, business world with little or no interference from government).  Third, Mr. Harper’s disrespect for Canada’s parliamentary system and its institutions (Supreme Court of Canada, the Canadian Senate, et al) is, in my mind a threat to how Canadians will be governed in the future.      

Justin Trudeau; on a Roll, will it Last?

Justin Trudeau is on a roll and his successes should not be discounted – after all is said and done, it’s possible Mr. Trudeau could be Canada’s 23rd prime minister.  Polls are indicating that Mr. Trudeau has a 34.3 approval rating amongst the Canadian electorate and his status appears to be growing.  If the up-starts momentum continues he could become Canada’s next prime minister with a “majority” Liberal government.  What is phenomenal about Trudeau’s success is that he has moved from a dismal third place at the beginning of the campaign, to the public’s top choice six days from October 19 election.  In the leadership debates that I saw Mr. Trudeau was articulate about his positions and was aggressive enough (some have called him testy) to put his opponents on edge – proving that he could stand up to the more seasoned Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair.  While the re-election strategy for Mr. Harper was to promote fear (if he weren’t to be re-elected) and Mr. Mulcair, lashing out with anger and hostility whenever his opponents promoted anything; Justin Trudeau’s strategy was to be pragmatic, realistic and positive.  Mr. Trudeau’s basic stance on the Canadian economy was sputtering (denied by Harper) and the public’s intense interest in jobs and security of their particular work environment played out well for the Liberals.  Mr. Trudeau’s solution to the present economic woes of Canada caused him to put forward a massive infrastructure program that will be paid for after the economy starts to move in the right direction – a slam-dunk for Justin Trudeau and accepted by many voters across the country – it was also a positive, confidence builder in an uncertain, apprehensive population.  There are two other actions taken by Justin Trudeau worth mentioning which clearly demonstrates Trudeau’s personal approach to parliamentary democracy.  Last year at the height of the Senate expenses scandal Mr. Trudeau abruptly removed the Liberal members of the Senate from his parliamentary caucus and declared the labelled Liberal Senators Independent.  While this action is not a solution to the many Senate issues and problems, it is the beginning of a solution and should not be ignored.  Another classy move made by Justin Trudeau deals with the European Refugee Crisis.  In the House of Commons debate on the crisis, Mr. Trudeau suggested a meeting of party leaders to address Canada’s role in the crisis and how to speed up the refugee application process, giving due attention to security – Trudeau’s recommendation was rejected.  While Mr. Trudeau has proven himself to be a strong contender for the country’s top political job and he is fortunate to have a strong, experienced Liberal organization backing him up. Nevertheless there is still 6 days of campaigning to go – I sincerely hope he doesn’t stumble.              

Tom Mulcair is Stumbling, Can He Recover?

Last week in this column I identified Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair as three mythological titans battling it out with spears of political accusations and personal condemnations.  Mr. Mulcair proved himself to be an outstanding warrior when he battled against Stephen Harper in the House of Commons on the Senate Expenses Scandal and the Mike Duffy Affair.  Unfortunately something happened to the Mulcair campaign on the ground, in the trenches (particularly in Quebec) that is causing his poll numbers to plummet into the 20s – that’s not good news for the Mr. Mulcair / NDP campaign.  In the 2011 election the NDP won 59 seats in Quebec and consolidated their Official Opposition status in Ottawa.  The current polls are indicating that the NDP are strong in 42 ridings – it is no wonder that the Conservatives and Liberals in Quebec are like vultures purporting to be the best choice in next Monday’s election.  Another important factor comes into play and possibly is the answer to the NDP declines.   A month ago when the Conservatives, NDP, Liberals were tied in the polls a glib observation was made, the NDP and the Liberals were fighting over who would end up in second place.  Maybe the public have made up their minds and are swinging toward the Liberals.  In Quebec there are other complicating factors that are impacting voter preference.  In rural Quebec the Niqab issue remains an issue and Mr. Mulcair hasn’t been able to finesse the issue, so the NDP leader responded by saying Mr. Harper is playing the race card – that might be the case but the Niqab issue resonated differently in rural Quebec and Mr. Mulcair didn’t see the difference?  The Bloc Quebecois is another wild card in Quebec politics but it appears that the party and its leader Gilles Duceppe will have minimal impact on the final results – winning 3 or 4 seats in the House of Commons.  Fortunately for Mr. Mulcair, it appears that his difficulties in Quebec are not dramatically affecting his support in other parts of the country.

A Final Thought on Leadership

While the battle between Harper, Mulcair and Trudeau will be settled in a few short days with the result being significant, if not “earth shaking” for Canada.  What has been lost in the kerfuffle is the sane, sagged views of Elizabeth May and the Green Party of Canada.  Her limited participation in the debates and her strenuous efforts should not be discounted.  In the end, she will make a difference in tomorrow’s political environment.     

Stephen Harper's Battle Isn't Over

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 92) October 7, 2015

In less than two weeks Canadians will be going to the polls and choosing which party and which leader is going to rule the country for the next four years.  At this point in time it is fair to say that Stephen Harper of the Conservatives, Thomas Mulcair of the NDP and Justin Trudeau of the Liberals are in a dead heat when it comes to capturing the hearts, minds and votes of the Canadian electorate.  What follows are some of my impressions and thoughts on what is going on in the Stephen Harper campaign and the reader should be cautioned, beware of my biases.   

The 2015 Election Campaign:  A Battle of the Titans

The 2015 election campaign has become a battle between three sword wielding titans, each having different, if not questionable qualifications to lead a pluralistic nation like Canada.  The promises being made in this campaign and the history each leader brings to the election table are being used like spears to put fear in the minds of the Canadian electorate should the wrong leader be chosen. 

Stephen Harper:  Stumbling But Definitely Not Out of the Picture

Stephen Harper has been prime minister of Canada for 10 years so there is no denying that he has experience in being Canada’s top politician.  Nevertheless, for me and many others:  has the 10 year rule under Mr. Harper made Canadians better off and has Canada become a more secure, sustainable nation in light of the global upheavals?  According to some opinion polls up to 70 percent of the population is dissatisfied and want political change in Canada.  In other polls, up to 60 percent of the electorate prefer either Thomas Mulcair or Justin Trudeau over Stephen Harper as Canada’s next prime minister.  Mr. Harper’s capacity to lead Canada for another four year term is partly based on how his past record plays out in the next 10 days.  From my perspective there are five topics resonating with the public that could very well determine whether Mr. Harper and the Conservatives get re-elected as government.                                                                                                 The Senate Expenses Scandal and the Mike Duffy Trial is playing out like last year’s blockbuster movie – exciting when it was playing but other priorities have taken over.  I still feel the issues of cover up transparency and accountability are lingering in the minds of the public when it comes to the Duffy fiasco and the public wants to know Mr. Harper’s specific role in the Senate scandal and the role of his gang at the PMO in the matter.  In my view, the Duffy Trial will resonate with the public on Election Day and is the prime reason for the 70 percent polling number which asks for political change in Ottawa.                                                                                     The European Refugee Crisis and Mr. Harper’s resistance to act immediately and humanely will have a negative impact on the “soft” support for the Conservatives, particularly with immigrant Canadians.  The Harper government’s minimal response to the refugee crisis in Europe also suggests a level of arrogance on the part of Mr. Harper and unbecoming a Canadian prime minister.                                                                                              Developing any sort of realistic Energy and Environmental Policy for Mr. Harper has taken a back seat to the feeling of remorse.  And it all relates to his inability to get approval from President Obama for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, the collapse of international oil prices and of course, Rachel Notley’s NDP win in Alberta.  My view, should Mr. Harper’s Conservatives win the most seats in the October 19 election will be to prepare for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (November 30 – December 11) – he might be too embarrassed to even attend?                                                                                                      Economy and Trade Policy has become the center piece of Mr. Harper’s bid for re-election and his wish for another majority.  As to the numbers used to describe his economic accomplishments, Mr. Harper used some accounting magic to claim a balanced budget for government operations and continues to opine that the economy was growing, without mentioning that the country was in a technical recession.  The real number to watch out for is Canada’s unemployment rate for September (to be released on October 9). Should the rate climb above 7 percent I think Mr. Harper’s opponents will have a field day claiming that Harper’s job creation record is outrageous and his performance as an economic manager, dismal.  Another important unemployment rate figure to watch is the youth unemployment rate (presently at 13.1 percent) and if it goes up it could be another signal that the Harper government’s job creation program isn’t working and could spur the youth to get out and vote – not good news for the Harper government.                                                                                    The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) framework agreement came just at the right time for Mr. Harper in his re-election bid.  While trade is the lifeblood of the Canadian economy and negotiating good trade agreements are the necessary tools to advance Canada’s prosperity there are always concerns and pitfalls – and the devil is in the details.  I will have a lot more to say about the TPP in next week’s column but for the moment I can only say that the TPP announcement is a boost for Mr. Harper’s chances on October 19.    

Any Ethics in Business?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 91) September 30, 2015

Ethics and good, responsible ethical behavior in the business world has turned particularly sour in the last while and should be exposed for what it is.

Volkswagen 

Martin Winterkorn, CEO of Germany’s Volkswagen Group resigned a few weeks ago when it was revealed that people in the company conspired to defraud the public and governments by adding illegal engineered devices to their diesel products and were able to report lower nitrogen oxide emissions than what actually existed.  While the conspiracy rests solely within Volkswagen’s senior management organization, it will cost the company big time in terms of lost reputation, many billions of dollars in fines and lawsuits and jail time for those held responsible.  The Volkswagen scandal is clearly a wake-up call for national governments around the world and their need for better oversight and regulation of so called globalized companies – where some globalized companies appear to have lost respect for national laws and the most basic ethical standards are considered irrelevant in the pursuit of market share and profit.  Volkswagen is ranked by Forbes Magazine to be the world’s 8^th largest firm in terms of sales revenue and is the second largest automaker.     

KPMG

KPMG LLP is one of the world’s largest accounting – audit – tax advisory service firms and has in recent years suffered for promoting illegal tax shelter fraud schemes in the United States.  In 2007 the firm admitted to criminal wrong doing by creating tax shelters for wealthy US citizens to avoid billions of dollars in United States taxes.  Through a “deferred prosecution agreement” KPMG LLP paid a fine of US$456 million.  KPMG Canada is also embroiled in its own tax avoidance scheme.  Canada’s revenue agency is investigating a KPMG tax avoidance scheme that the government deems to be “grossly negligent” and a “sham”.   In early 2013 a federal court judge ordered KPMG to turn over a list of Canadian millionaires who (through KPMG) invested fortunes in an Isle of Man tax shelter scheme that the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is calling a “sham”.  According to court documents: a family in British Columbia gave $26 million to an arm’s length company (structured by KPMG) on the Isle of Man and the family in turn was “gifted” back the original investment without incurring any taxes in Canada – no question in my mind, the Canada Revenue Agency is seeking the names of other KPMG clients who might have taken advantage of the Isle of Man scheme – the Federal Court agrees.  KPMG has called the court order a “fishing expedition” while at the same time appears to be negotiating with the Canada Revenue Agency on a settlement similar to the “deferred prosecution agreement” in the United States.  As to whether the scheming and actions of KPMG Canada was ethical by Canadian standards and laws is a good question, I doubt Canadians will ever be told or know?

Martin Shkreli

Until recently Martin Shkreli was a little known entrepreneur who knew how to make a lot of money in the stock market.  Today Mr. Shkreli has been labeled America’s “icon of greed” and by some, “America’s most hated man”.  Mr. Shkreli is the man who took a drug that he purchased the rights to and increased the price of the drug 4,000 percent.  Mr. Shkreli then in an interview, called his action “altruistic” – altruism meaning behavior that shows a desire to help other people and a lack of selfishness.  Later Mr. Shkreli has had second thoughts about his business model and said he would be reducing the price of his patented drug but would not disclose the reduced price.  If there is a benefit to Mr. Shkreli’s outrageous actions, it might prompt governments to take action and regulate pricing in the pharmaceutical industry.            

Alexion Pharmaceuticals

United States based Alexion Pharmaceuticals has recently taken Canadian authorities to court for the government’s attempt to lower the price of Soliris, a drug produced by Alexion to treat very rare blood disorders.  Soliris has been labeled the world’s most expensive drug.  Alexion Pharmaceuticals has been very vague on justifying the high cost of the drug and some researchers claim that 80 to 90 percent of the development costs for drugs like Soliris are actually born by universities and other publically research groups.  Kelly Crowe of the CBC News organization has concluded:  “. . . Alexion sets the price of Soliris at a half a million dollars a year because that’s what it thinks the market will bear, based on the fact that the drug works and patients have no other treatment options. . . .The business model depends on public health-care systems and private insurance companies reimbursing the million-dollar drug bills.”  It is worthy to note that Alexion’s sole product is the Soliris drug and in just 8 years generated $6 billion in revenue.  Alexion is one of the fastest growing drug companies in the world with a business model that lacks a code of ethics that is normally attached to those in the healthcare industry.  My perspective, actions like Alexion could be a major factor that threatens a reasonable healthcare system in Canada and elsewhere.    

Harper's Campaign - Turniing Sour

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 90) September 23, 2015

Canadians are in the middle of a lengthy federal election campaign with the three major party leaders blanketing the country making questionable promises and covering up their short comings with deception and political gobbledygook.  Public opinion polls are suggesting Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, Thomas Mulcair’s NDP and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are in a dead heat when it comes to public support – each garnering about 30 percent approval from the Canadians surveyed.  Regarding the remaining four weeks of the campaign, I think it is fair to assume that Canadians will be exposed to the same stuff:  more rhetoric, more promises and a lot more fear mongering.  Canadians can expect a free-for-all in political shenanigans and double talk, all aimed at winning the hearts and minds of the voting public on October 19.  For this week’s Whispering in the Wind column, I want to pay some attention to two specific issues that have grabbed the news headlines in the last few weeks and how these issues might/will resonate with the electorate come Election Day.

The Canadian Economy

Last week’s leader’s election debate on the Canadian economy between Harper, Mulcair and Trudeau was assessed by many political observers to be a two hour “dud” when measured against historical election debates.  In my view, Mr. Harper’s contributions to the debate were defensive and out of character.  He said:  “I’ve never said things were great …I’ve said we are living in a very challenging environment … Where would you rather live?”  Mr. Mulcair’s contribution was articulate in his criticism of both Mr. Harper and Mr. Trudeau and his highlight remark came when he criticised the prime minister’s reliance on the oil industry as the country’s engine of growth.  Mr. Mulcair opined to the television audience:  “Mr. Harper put all his eggs in one basket and he dropped the basket.”  Mr. Trudeau appeared in command of presentations and very aggressive in his critical remarks of both Mr. Harper and Mr. Mulcair.  Specifically directed at Mr. Harper, Mr. Trudeau asked Canadians if they were better off since Mr. Harper became prime minister in 2006.  My assessment, Justin Trudeau won the debate, largely a result of his aggressive and loud presentations.  And from that performance he demonstrated that he was/is a capable contender.  As to whether the debate addressed the needs and interests of the general public, the debate failed big time.  From my perspective the Canadian public are anxious about the economy and their specific role in it.  The Canadian public want to hear from their political leaders about plans to make their lives and the lives of their families more stable and more secure.  The party and the leader that can address this central issue will likely win the election on October 19.

The Refugee Crisis in Europe

The catastrophic refugee situation in Europe was not ignored in last Thursday’s electoral leadership debate on the economy.  The question asked by the debate’s moderator dealt with the role of immigration in the Canadian economy and that immediately lead to more piercing question:  What should Canada’s role be in addressing the humanitarian, refugee crises in Europe?   Mr. Harper’s response was stark, exaggerated and disingenuous to the issue.  He said:  “What these guys [Mulcair and Trudeau] would have done in the last two weeks is having us throwing open our borders and literally having hundreds of thousands of people coming without any security check or documentation.”  Not only was Mr. Harper’s outburst untruthful when it comes to the positions voiced by Mulcair and Trudeau, it was also uncalled for if one looks at history of Canada – unless Mr. Harper’s dramatics were as a simple ploy to shore up his base in the Conservative party.  Since the debate the Conservatives have promised to speed up the process, but the total figure of 10,000 refugees remains as is.  To what degree Mr. Harper’s positions and outbursts are going to have on the election is an open question, but in my view, Mr. Harper shot himself in the foot – big time and it polarized the electorate in many ways. My bias is toward the suggestion made by Justin Trudeau two weeks ago when he suggested that the Conservative, New Democrat, Liberal leaders meet to set reasonable targets and implement an expeditious strategy – otherwise it’s going to be a 75 / 25 split at the polls and that’s not good news in the Harper camp.