Another "Orange Crush" Possibility?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 83) July22, 2015

Canada’s 42^nd general election is less than three months away.  Actually, the campaign to win the hearts and minds of the Canadian electorate began well over a year ago and it has always been about political leadership.  Even today, the questions remain as they did a year ago:  Can Stephen Harper recover from the Duffy scandal?  Who is Thomas Mulcair?  Is Justin Trudeau more than his wavy hair?   

The Political State of Play 

Many in Alberta were surprised by the May 5, 2015 election in Alberta, when and where Rachel Notley’s Alberta New Democratic Party won the right to govern a province that was in the hands of the right leaning Alberta PCs for some 44 years.  At the same time, the NDP victory in Alberta shocked all of Canada and dramatically changed the political landscape for the upcoming October 19 general election.  Important to realize, Canadians were already skittish about the policies and management style of Stephen Harper – one poll that is taken on an annual basis is showing consistent numbers, 53 percent of Canadians feel that Mr. Harper is leading Canada in the wrong direction.  Other recent polls indicate a Thomas Mulcair, NDP surge, with a 33 percent approval rating, 4 percentage points ahead of Mr. Harper’s Conservatives and 7 points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.  It’s a little early to suggest that Mr. Mulcair and the NDP are going to perform another “Orange Crush” but there is no question, Mr. Mulcair has gained some recognition and momentum, largely because of the Notley win in Alberta.  If Thomas Mulcair can carry that momentum into the debate season, he has a chance to form Canada’s first national NDP government.  For the present, Stephen Harper is on the defense and refuses to address the many questions put to him – he refuses to communicate with Canadians.  As well, Justin Trudeau simply hasn’t shown any spirit or spunk.    

The Debates

One of the great ironies attached to Canadian politics is just how devious politics can become, all at the expense of the electorate.  The televised leadership debates, an institution that has historically been the time when millions of Canadians judge the record and capabilities of the leadership candidates, has actually become a mishmash of controversy within the media industry (perpetrated by the Conservatives).  Presently there are something like 10 proposals put forward by various media organizations with little concrete commitment from any of the major political parties.  I’ve always thought that politics was the expression of ideas and politicians, with different approaches, debating the merits of their ideas and arriving at the best solution for the public – it’s not happening in this election. 

Selling Off Local History

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 82) July 15, 2015

Every once in a while something “big” happens in the Smoky Lake area – something that requires attention, scrutiny and hopefully some sober second thought.  A few years back the issue was City of Edmonton water coming into a number of communities in the Smoky Lake, Thorhild areas.  Today, it is the supply of electricity to farmers, ranchers and other rural landowners in the Smoky Lake, Vegreville areas. 

ATCO Electric’s Bid

A month ago I was visited by a representative from the ATCO Electric organization.  After a few niceties about the weather I was given a pamphlet outlining an offer-to-purchase proposal to owner-members of the Lakeland Rural Electrification Association.  The pamphlet was/is clear; ATCO Electric is offering to purchase the operations and assets of the Lakeland REA, a regionally owned electricity cooperative.  The offer by ATCO is described in the first paragraph of their pamphlet:  “… ATCO Electric’s purchase proposal of $30,168,234 for the Lakeland REA system would be divided among the approximate 1,448 Lakeland member contract holders.”

Lakeland REA’s Reaction    

The Lakeland REA’s Board of Directors were apparently stunned by ATCO’s “hostile” maneuver.  The board is suggesting that the unsolicited offer to the REA members was contrary to ATCO’s policy on how ATCO would do business with REAs – and the understanding held by the regulator of Alberta’s electricity industry, the Alberta Utilities Commission.  I understand ATCO faxed their offer notice to Lakeland REA’s head office in Vegreville on June 15 – and at the same time, ATCO employees were in the region distributing offer-to-purchase pamphlets to REA owner-members.  About a day or so later members received a leaflet in the mail entitled “MESSAGE FROM YOUR BOARD OF DIRECTORS RE: ATCO’S HOSTILE TAKEOVER ATTEMPT”.  The leaflet went on to state:  “Your Board of Directors is unanimous in its opinion that a sale to ATCO would not be in the best interests of the Lakeland REA membership.”  The information leaflet also claimed that ATCO was not operating in “good faith” and was providing “misleading information” to Lakeland REA members.  To facilitate a better understanding of the issues involved, the Lakeland REA announced information sessions in Mundare, Smoky Lake, Vegreville and Derwent – ATCO also announced scheduled information sessions in their pamphlet – same towns, same dates and times, different venues.

Concurrent Information Meetings 

For Smoky Lake, the information sessions were held on July 8, from 4 to 7pm.  The REA’s session was held at the Smoky Lake curling club, ATCO’s session was staged at the Ukrainian National Hall.  At the curling club about 75 – 80 REA members heard the co-op’s president, Bernie Klammer express board’s frustration and despair regarding the actions and process undertaken by ATCO Electric.  Most of my time was spent at the Smoky Lake curling rink and from what I observed, attitudes have polarized within the REA community in the Smoky Lake area, and there doesn’t appear to be a way to develop a reasonable consensus.  From my perspective the challenges for the REA board will be difficult and the biggest challenge will be to achieve the best possible result for the Lakeland REA owner-members – and that means translating the nostalgia and the sweat put into building and maintaining a locally owned utility system into dollars and cents.  In accounting terms, it means introducing the “goodwill” factor.    

Canadians Want Change - Too Early to Call

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 81) June 24, 2015

With the federal election less than four months away politicians are starting to get serious about winning the hearts and minds of the Canadian electorate.  I suspect July and August will see a good number of wannabe candidates lurking the countryside on a social circuit, punching posters on lawns and claiming to anyone who will listen; that his/her party is the only party that can deal with the major issues facing Canada.  In September and October the battle for voter attention will be ratcheted up with more focus on party leadership.  Canadians will be offered a number of leadership debates with a good deal more attention paid to advertising, most of which will be negative.  No doubt, the next 115 days is going to be filled with drama and intrigue – all wrapped up with skullduggery.

Political State of Play in Canada

The serious political campaigns have just begun with most of the polls suggesting the three main political parties are running neck to neck to neck in terms of voter intensions.  Based on the latest compilation of polls:  Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are at 30 percent approval rating; Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats at 29 percent; and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 28 percent.  Considering the regional distribution of support, pollsters are suggesting that if an election were to be held now, a Conservative minority government would emerge with the New Democrats retaining the role of Official Opposition.  What is surprising, the polls appear to be changing and changing fast, all at the expense of Mr. Harper and his Conservative Party government.  The latest EKOS poll has put Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats on top at 30 percent approval with the Conservatives and Liberals each at 28 percent.  While one poll does not indicate a trend, but it might suggest a change in momentum and yes, it could mean the beginning of another Orange Crush not too different to the surprising NDP win in Alberta. 

The Mood of the People

While voter intension polls are suggesting a tight race between the Conservatives, NDPs and Liberals, another data set is suggesting that Canadians are disappointed with the performance of Mr. Harper’s government, a disappointment that has been recorded for a number of years.  The EKOS polling organization has tracked the mood of the Canadian electorate for a number of years and the news is not good for Mr. Harper’s government.  Presently, 57 percent of the population feel the government is taking the country in the wrong direction – in 2014 the level of dissatisfaction was over 60 percent.  What is clear from the polling data, Canadians want a new approach to governance in Canada and for the present, Thomas Mulcair has the momentum and the edge over his adversaries.  Weather Mr. Mulcair can maintain momentum and sustain his edge until October 19 another open question – a number of pundits have already concluded that Mulcair has peaked too early for him to become prime minister.  My view, don’t discount another Orange Crush. 

How will You Vote?

Prior to any federal or provincial election, I have consistently suggested that voters should ponder on three pretty straightforward questions before deciding how to vote.  First there is the party’s platform and its clarity.  Does the party platform move Canada forward as a nation and make country a better place to live?  Secondly, the party leadership and does the party leader have the skills to lead, does the leader exude the confidence of a leader?  Third, the specific candidates located in the riding where “you” will vote.  Will the local candidate reflect independent thoughts and views?  I continue to hold to the approach just described but it is becoming more and more difficult in light of the growing control over independent thought by a more centralized, autocratic party machine.

"Loose Lips Sink Ships"

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 80) June 17, 2015

“Loose Lips Sink Ships” was first used on political propaganda posters during World War II.  The posters warned military personnel and the general public that even the most innocent, unguarded comment could be used by the enemy to sink ships.  The slogan that was so effectively used seventy years ago to fight a tyranny has, in a strange way, re-emerged with less dire consequences? 

Mayor Don Iverson

Last week, in a tearful news conference regarding the murder of Constable Daniel Woodall, Mayor Don Iverson offered a comment that created a severe reaction from Ottawa’s political elite.  Mayor Iverson’s comments were in part political when he observed:  “I do have concern regarding gun violence and I will say that the long gun registry may be related to this….I think every opportunity our police have to have knowledge of where firearms are in the city would be to their advantage.”  The reaction from the federal government was immediate and severe.  Minister of Justice, Peter MacKay blurted out that the mayor’s comments were “ill-timed” and “absurd” because the Woodall shooting was still under investigation.  The federal Minister of Public Safety, Steven Blaney opined that his anti-terrorism legislation “will reduce the likelihood” of such murderous events.  Mayor Iverson quickly apologized and said his comments were “premature”.  As to whether the mayor’s comments were too political for the news conference is still an open question?  From my perspective Mayor Iverson made a point that will resonate with many Canadians and the question he posed needs an answer from those who wiped out the long gun registry.  As to whether Don Iverson’s comments were loose talk, I think not.  If there was a disappointment in Mr. Iverson’s personal feelings and actions, his apology was disappointing.

Mike Duffy

As Mike Duffy’s criminal trial continues there is absolutely no doubt, the trial has become a never ending exercise in postponement and delay – at least until after the October federal election.  With last week’s release of Auditor General Michael Ferguson’s audit report on “all” Senators expenses, a new dimension has been added to the Duffy trial and the question remains, was Mike Duffy a victim of political maneuvering and cover up or was he just part of a culture of entitlement in the Senate?  In the Auditor General’s report it is quite clear that the rules regarding the Senators’ expenses were virtually non-existent – and for the future, Mr. Ferguson recommends that expenses for all Senators need much more discipline and definitely proper oversight.  At present, the audit report bodes well for Mike Duffy’s defence against the 31 charges placed by the RCMP, but the trial is not half over and the most damaging charges have yet to be presented in court.  As to whether the “Loose Lips Sinks Ships” slogan applies to Mike Duffy and his circumstances is a question that can’t be answered until his defense is fully presented.  Whether the Mike Duffy trail ends up destroying any “ships” in the process is another open question but there is no doubt, things in government are going to change, big time. 

Justin Trudeau

If there is one political figure in Canada who has regularly shown that he has “loose lips” it is Justin Trudeau, leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.  The list of his gaffs and miscalculations is long and offers a lot of ammunition to his political opponents who continue to suggest that he is not experienced enough to be Prime Minister.  Personally I find Mr. Trudeau’s approach to politics refreshing, human and honest – traits that are lacking in his political opponents.  As to his gaffs, I thing one stands out and is worth mentioning – and in my view is reflective of his 21 century thinking.  Last October, in an interview with Don Newman Justin Trudeau was proposing major humanitarian aid to the people of Iraq as Canada’s contribution to the USA led consortium against the ISIS insurgence in Iraq.  Prime Minister Harper was structuring an air offensive contribution to the US consortium.  Mr. Trudeau glibly offered his party’s position:  “Why aren’t we talking more about the humanitarian aid that Canada can and must be engaged in, rather than trying to whip out our CF-18s and show them how big they are?”  Mr. Harper’s response to Trudeau’s remark was short:  “It just doesn’t work like that in Canada.”  As to the big question for this column, did Trudeau’s off-colored remark leave any lasting impression on the Canadian public?  I doubt it will, but it might have left an impression with some uncertain voters that Mr. Harper was/is being far too aggressive and too macho when it comes to Canada’s role in international affairs, particularly when humanitarian aid was more in the style of Canadian support in areas of military conflict.  As to the question of using his “loose lips” talk to his political advantage, it is time for Mr. Trudeau to take off the gloves and use his honesty and his humanity to his political advantage.    

Healing or Provocation

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 79) June 10, 2015

With last week’s release of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission report Justice Murray Sinclair has clearly established a stage for an excited population seeking immediate action on the report’s 94 recommendations.  The reaction by the aboriginal community to the report’s recommendations can only be labeled astounding, if not revolutionary in a country that has always prided itself on being a nation that is inclusive, multi-cultural and tolerant.  Said another way, have Justice Sinclair’s recommendations gone too far in the wrong direction?

Putting Truth and Reconciliation in Perspective

The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) was established in June, 2008 and a part of the court-approved Residential Schools Settlement Agreement – an agreement negotiated between legal counsel for former students, legal counsel for the churches, the government of Canada, the Assembly of First Nations and a number of other aboriginal organizations.  The Residential Schools Settlement Agreement was a class action law suit that included the distribution of close to $1.9 billion to about 80,000 former “eligible” students.  As well, out-of-court settlements saw the distribution of a further $1.7 billion in compensation agreements in private settlements.  My understanding, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission was the non-financial component of the overall Residential Schools Settlement Agreement and yet, the financial implications of the TRC initiative far outweigh the money already distributed.

The TRC, a Provocation or an Exercise in Healing?

The release of Justice Sinclair’s 94 recommendations and his 388 page summary document (and a 260 page list of references document) suggests that a great deal of study is going to be required if Canadians are to understand the true scope and implications of Justice Murray Sinclair’s presentation, including his statement that Canada’s experience with residential schools is an experience in “cultural genocide”. 

The final report has yet to be released – my understanding, it will end up being six volumes and will be translated into six aboriginal languages.  As to the 94 recommendations that have been posted in English, it might be premature to offer comment without having seen Justice Sinclair’s detail analysis.  Nevertheless I would like to offer some view on two areas that I feel require balanced clarification.  First the recommendations that deals with EDUCATION and specifically, recommendation number 10 that requests new education legislation for Canada’s aboriginal peoples.  I’m sure Justice Sinclair is aware that there is proposed federal legislation and is still in limbo.  The legislation was developed by Prime Minister Harper and Shawn Atleo (at the time, national chief of the Assembly of First Nations).  My understanding, the legislation is still available for discussion.  Why Justice Sinclair doesn’t make reference to the Harper/Atleo initiative is an open question but it might be in the yet to be published detail reports?  My second comment deals with recommendation 43 and 44, recommendations that deal with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and the apparent need for the federal government to endorse this unbinding UN declaration – my understanding is that Prime Minister Harper made such a declaration in late 2010.  I await the publication of Justice Sinclair’s final report and can only speculate how it might play out in the upcoming federal election?  As to the 94 recommendations, and whether these recommendations are a guide, a pathway toward healing and reconciliation, I think Justice Murray Sinclair missed the mark.