Canada Needs a Political Wave, But Which Color?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 78) June 3, 2015

Alberta’s May 5 election experience clearly revealed that judging the mood of an electorate in uncertain times is a dicey undertaking.  Jim Prentice, considered one of Canada’s most experienced, sophisticated political minds, totally misjudged Albertans and he paid the price.  The results; at least one political career was destroyed and a party put in jeopardy.  What has been described as uncanny event in Alberta is now being paralleled at the national level.  There is a penetrating question being asked in many coffee bars around the country, can and will the nation’s election this fall reflect another wave of support (or dissent) with the status quo?

The National Campaigns, Just Starting

As the country copes with uncertain social, economic conditions, Canadians are coping with another uncertainty, the infamous election campaign.  Actually the campaign began months ago with party leaders offering many promises and commitments.  Nevertheless, in the next few weeks political contenders will be out in full force, having calculated (or being told) the best way to win the hearts and minds of a fickle electorate.  At the same time, pollsters and pundits are already using their polling techniques to judge the mood of the electorate and assess the factors that could influence an apprehensive voter.

The Polls Reflects Uncertainty

The most recent national political opinion polls have placed the three major political parties into a virtual tie.  In terms of the latest snapshot of public support for the parties; the Conservatives have a 31 percent approval rating, the Liberals have 29 percent support and the New Democrats are at 27 percent.  Viewed on a regional basis the Conservatives are well ahead of the other in the prairies, as are the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.  The New Democrats have a not-so-defining lead in Quebec and British Columbia.  My perspective, the battle ground in this election campaign is going to be Ontario and British Columbia where 163 seats are at stake.  The polling data also suggests that if an election was to be held tomorrow, the Conservatives would form a minority government in the 338 seat House of Commons – the data does not reliably predict which party would form the Official Opposition.  Another poll worth mentioning is the annual poll undertaken by the Nanos Research group on government performance.  The latest Nanos poll concludes that Canadians are disappointed in the Harper government’s performance – 56 percent of those surveyed feel that the Harper government is going in the wrong direction with 45 percent indicating the government performed poorly or very poorly.  Nanos’ 2011 survey reflected a much different picture with 64 percent of Canadians feeling that the country is moving in the right direction. 

Party Leadership, Key to Winning

Prior to any federal election, I have always asked the voter to consider the party itself and its purpose, the party’s platform and its campaign promises, as well as the individual candidates and party’s leadership.  This election appears to be all about the leaders, their integrity and their management style.                                                                                                    Stephen Harper has been identified by a number of close associates as controlling, sly and secretive.  From what I have observed and read, I would add that Mr. Harper has shown little regard, or respect for the Westminster style of parliamentary governance, a dangerous disposition if you are a prime minister governing with a majority.  As to Mr. Harper’s major achievements there is one worth mentioning and in my view, was a true effort on the part of Mr. Harper to do some Nation Building.  Bill C-33, “The First Nations Control of First Nations Education Act”.  Bill-33 was a collaborative effort in early 2014, between Mr. Harper and the grand chief of the Assembly of First Nations, Shawn Atleo.  Bill-33 was deemed unacceptable by a number of First Nations leaders and remains in limbo, a clear sign that there are big problems ahead for Canada, no matter who leads the country.                                                                                    Thomas Mulcair has rightly been identified as a superb parliamentarian.  Unfortunately Mr. Mulcair hasn’t had the exposure in English Canada that would identify him as a possible prime minister in waiting – although the recent NDP win in Alberta could change his standing, big time.  It is worth noting that in the early days of his political career, Mr. Mulcair was the single NDP member in Quebec’s National Assembly.  After the 2011 Quebec election the NDP caucus grew to 58members, some of the credit for the Quebec “orange wave” was bestowed on Tom Mulcair.  Mr. Mulcair is known to have fits of anger; behind closed doors but in the House of Commons and when he is before the TV cameras he consistently demonstrates an acute command of his role as leader of the Official Opposition.                                                                                               Justin Trudeau has been leader of the Liberal Party of Canada for just about 26 months and in those two plus years he was placed on a steep learning curve by a party that is very strong and has lots of experience in governing Canada.  As well, the party retains a good number of seasoned politicians who are used to government leadership and are fully behind their leader.  Two things worth mentioning about Mr. Trudeau’s management style and his youthful political approach:  first, he believes in engagement and consensus building, a style that offered “hope” for change in Ottawa’s way of doing business – the idea went over well with the public and his ratings sored.  What was a new way of doing government business in Ottawa was foreign to most politicians and Mr. Trudeau was ridiculed for his youth and inexperience.  Second point and put in the simplest of terms: Justin Trudeau’s training days are over and it’s time for campaigning for the country’s top job.  It means that the leader, Justin Trudeau, will need to confidently present a platform of ideas that will need promoting and if somebody snipes at him, then he has no choice he has snipe back with vigor.

A Closing Comment

I end this column with a comment on the question I posed at the beginning of the article – can and will a wave of support (or dissent) emerge in the campaign?  In my there are dozens of issues that could trigger Canadians to move on mass toward one of the three leaders.  In the weeks to come I intend to elaborate on at least three issues that could easily cause waves:  the Economy; the Truth and Reconciliation Report; the Senate Scandal and the Duffy Trial.

Canada"s Leadership Debates in Limbo

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 77) May 27, 2015

The political upheaval three weeks ago in Alberta has many still shaking their heads in amazement – some have called the Rachel Notley, NDP win, revolutionary.  As to the cause of the “Orange Wave” there is no doubt, the people of Alberta were simply fed-up with the status quo, entitlement politics being exercised by the leaders on the “right” side of the political spectrum.  What is equally amazing is the impact of the NDP win on national politics, and that leads to a pair of imposing questions:  can and will the Alberta experience be repeated in another election that is less than five months away?  Following is my take on an issue that has gained a lot of attention in the press.  The issue, public argument and debate in an election setting is exposing a cunning strategy that could backfire on the prime minister, and the possibility of arrogance being the trigger that generates a wave of public dissent against the status quo? 

The Debate on the Debates

Mr. Harper had to be astonished by the NDP win in Alberta and particularly the Rachel Notley’s win over Jim Prentice at the leadership debate held less than two weeks prior to the Alberta election.  In my view, the Alberta experience was a major wakeup call for Mr. Harper that required significant, immediate changes to the Conservative Party re-election strategy.  It was announced:  Stephen Harper would not be appearing at the major TV debates put on by the major TV broadcasters, a major shock to a tradition that started in 1968 and historically garnered an estimated 10 million viewers.  Mr. Harper, through his party machine, is proposing a very different structure for the debates – covering narrow, very specific topics and issues.  How this debate issue sorts itself out is anybody’s guess, but the major TV broadcasters have made it clear, they will proceed with their traditional debates, with or without the prime minister.  My thoughts on the debate issue:

If Mr. Harper had his way, there would be no public debate on what could or would challenge his record as prime minister.

One of the more telling features of Mr. Harper’s management style is his determination to control any agenda on any issue that might beset him.  For the present, Mr. Harper’s controlling attitude is working, to the chagrin of his political adversaries.

Following the Harper format for the debates, he would disallow subjects and questions that aren’t specifically related to the agreed to, narrow subject being debated.  Mr. Harper appears to have agreed to two debates using his format; one on the economy and the other on foreign policy – subjects where Mr. Harper feels he has the advantage?  Subjects that deal with issues before the courts; actions that are deemed unconstitutional; issues that are considered “internal management” practices would not be raised or allowed in the debate, by agreement with the debate organizers.

As to the reaction by Stephen Harper’s main adversaries, Thomas Mulcair is willing to debate Stephen Harper anywhere and everywhere.  Justin Trudeau hasn’t made up his mind or he is holding back on his decision for unknown reasons.  Mr. Harper, he has sparked a controversy that reveals an arrogant, controlling approach to politics – it might be the spark that triggers a wave?    

Harper Hit Hard with Alberta's NDP Win

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 76) May 20, 2015

Judging Canada’s ever changing political scene has become even more complicated with the NDP election win in Alberta.  While Rachel Notley continues to muse about how she is going to govern Alberta, mandarins in Ottawa are trying to sort out the implications of Alberta’s Orange Wave election results and whether there is a mood swing within the country’s electorate?

An Unexpected  Orange Wave Hits Alberta

The Rachel Notley, New Democratic election win in Alberta was a real shocker for anybody and everybody interested in politics.  Winning 54 seats of the 87 seat legislative assembly, the NDP established itself as the chosen alternative opposite a political culture that has lost its way.  The Alberta PC loss is being attributed to a good number of factors, all having substance and credibility – beginning with Allison Redford and her feeling of entitlement, for both herself and her government.  When Jim Prentice offered his cold “look in the mirror” remark in response to the government’s financial mess, the people of Alberta felt insulted, if not betrayed.  Then he presented a budget that was viewed to be anti-people and pro-corporation.  Quickly the political momentum shifted to the down-to-earth personality of Rachel Notley.  Polls taken after the leadership debate indicated that change was inevitable and the Rachel Notley team was leading.  The debate held just days before the election, is when and where Rachel Notley clearly and skillfully demonstrated that she was premier material, was  empathetic toward an apprehensive public, and could stand up to her competitors – the rest is history.

Can An Orange Wave Sweep Canada?

The big question circulating throughout Canada and in the various campaign war rooms in Ottawa; will what happened in Alberta on May 5 be repeated in the upcoming federal election?  An EKOS political poll taken just after the Alberta election (between May 6 through 12) saw support for Thomas Mulcair’s ND party move up 5 percentage points in just one week and settled into a virtual tie with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 30 percent – Justin Trudeau’s Liberals garnered 27 percent support.  Now a single poll does not necessarily indicate a trend nor does it indicate a wave of support for the national NDP.  But it is positive movement and Thomas Mulcair has got to be pleased, if not ecstatic.  What is real and cannot be denied, the NDP won a majority government in the country’s center for right wing thinking – so dramatic change is possible in the most unbelievable places.  My conclusion, it all depends on the fickle nature of the public and the reality of mood swings – the public was dissatisfied with the PC government in Alberta and the public was fed up and got change in the ballot box.  A good number of Canadians are dissatisfied with the performance of the Harper government and want change but that in itself does not mean there is going to be a ground swell for change.  What the Alberta election proves that anything is possible – and that has got the political mandarins in Ottawa worried. 

Winning the Hearts and Minds of Canadians

The war rooms of the national political parties have got to be buzzing with changes to their election campaign strategies and how their political leadership will be presented to the Canadian public from now to election-day – in light of the NDP win in Alberta.  Party spokespeople are already squabbling about the expected leadership debates.  Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have found that the traditional debating format is unacceptable – where the big TV broadcasters, CBC, CTV and Global, structure the issues, questions and the debating format.  I think it is obvious; Stephen Harper doesn’t want to debate the likes of Thomas Mulcair or Justin Trudeau.  What Stephen Harper’s spokespeople want are friendly, set questions coming from friendly news men and women.  From my perspective, how to handle debates issue is just a tactic to avoid having a healthy dialogue on performance and issues facing Canada – and for the prime minister he needs to defend his record and his performance.  There are many important questions that should be debated – as the Alberta leadership debate in Alberta clearly demonstrated, each question and each response can be a mood changer for the electorate.      

Alberta Election, VOLCANIC

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 7) May 13, 2015

The May 5, 2015 election in Alberta is now history with pundits labelling the results astounding and ground breaking – my take on the results, VOLCANIC! 

The Results

Rachel Notley and her Alberta New Democratic Party swept much of the province on May 5^th.  The NDP garnered over 40 percent of the popular vote and 53 seats in the 87 seat Alberta Legislative Assembly.  Brian Jean and the Alberta Wildrose Party got 24 percent of the popular vote and won 21seats in the Legislative Assembly – the Wildrose is now the Alberta government’s Official Opposition.  The Alberta Liberal Party with 4 percent of the popular vote and the Alberta Party with 2 percent support, each won a single seat.  The Alberta Progressive Conservative Party suffered a number of catastrophic losses.  The PCs received 28 percent of the popular vote (devastating) and 10 seats in the Alberta Legislative Assembly (embarrassing).  When the results became clear, Jim Prentice acknowledged personal responsibility for the PC debacle.  Adding further insults to an obviously demoralized, critically wounded party, Jim Prentice summarily resigned his leadership position at the PC association and with the same breath, resigned the seat that he had just won in the Calgary-Foothills constituency.

The Results in Perspective

Putting Alberta’s election results into some sort of perspective is not a task for the faint at heart, particularly if you’re a die-hard “progressive” conservative.  Let me put forward some of my views regarding present circumstances, circumstances that can only be described as volatile.

Alberta’s Economic Circumstance, Shaky  

In the past six months, Alberta’s economic circumstance has moved from a boom scenario to bust situation – largely due to the 2014 collapse of international oil prices.  Currently energy prices are creeping upward, toward more economically realistic levels.  Along with a lower Canadian dollar, the energy sector in Alberta should be more optimistic than what is being reported in the media.  Nevertheless there are a number of big outstanding political issues facing the energy industry in Alberta and the issues all relate to politics.  With the election of an NDP government in Alberta the issues have been significantly magnified, making energy CEOs very edgy and hesitant.

Alberta’s Political Circumstance, Shaky

As the new economic reality settled in during the first three months of 2015 the mood of Albertans swung from carefree optimism and anticipation to apprehension, despair and fear.  The public’s mood was electrified at the end of March when Premier Prentice offered Albertans a belt-tightening budget as part of a 10 year plan.  The 10 year plan was aimed at addressing the government’s financial quagmire.  The 2015 budget details were interpreted by Albertans as being a direct hit on the average Albertan, with no hit directed at the corporate world.  The under-current of dissatisfaction turned to a tsunami.  The televised leader’s debate is where Rachel Notley, leader of the New Democrats, stole the show and demonstrated that she had what it takes to be a premier.  And along the way, she came across as a people’s person who is standing up to the status quo politicians.

Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Circumstance, Shaky

With the poor showing of the Alberta PCs in the May 5 election and the resignation of Jim Prentice as party leader on election night has put the party in a very precarious, if not dire situation.  The ire of PC supporters was magnified when Mr. Prentice resigned his seat that he had just won.  I understand that a letter is being circulated to Alberta PC members (haven’t received mine) indicating that the Alberta PC Association is resolute to remain a progressive conservative movement.  How this tattered progressive party deals with its commitment to remain “progressive” is yet to be explained.  The bigger question in my mind, can the progressive conservatives in Alberta remain independent of the more extreme views on the right, a struggle that produced a political disaster at the federal level less than 10 years ago – only time will tell?

Alberta New Democratic Party Circumstance, Shaky

Rachel Notley and the New Democrats have the majority and the numbers to sustain a government for a full term – even with a block on the right.  What is lacking in a New Democratic government is depth but lacking depth is not unusual when there’s been revolutionary political change – it was successfully dealt with in 1971 when Peter Lougheed took over from the 32 year reign of the Social Credit party – no doubt in my mind, it can and will be dealt with in 2015 by Rachel Notley.  Not only is there going to be a sharp learning curve for good number of neophyte politicians but there is another major challenge that Notley will have to address in the next few months, how to quickly change the culture in an entrenched civil service?  Rachel Notley is facing numerous challenges in the coming weeks and months – her agenda is long and complex – it’s going to be interesting to watch and digest her actions.  For those who are so disappointed in the election results (myself included), Rachel Notley won the election of May 5, 2015 handily and therefore deserves a chance to prove that her approach is better than what was.   

Duffy Trial - Bigger Than You Think!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 74) May 6, 2015

I’m writing this column not knowing who Alberta’s next premier is and you will be reading the same column knowing who the premier-elect is – an interesting mix-up due to my copy deadline.  So let me describe some of the shenanigans going on in Ottawa as it relates to the Mike Duffy trial and leave the Alberta election results and the consequences for next week’s column.

Duffy Trial – An Expose of Privilege and Interference

The so called Duffy trial is well into its third week of deliberation with no clear end-date in sight.  Witnesses for the prosecution are being put on the stand to castigate Mr. Duffy and his actions, suggesting that his actions were somehow unusual and singular in the Red Chamber.  Mr. Duffy’s defence is more subtle at this stage in the trial, arguing that the rules of conduct within the Senate chamber were ill-defined at best, and virtually non-existent when it comes to application – and most definitely, strongly influenced by outside political forces. 

Arguing With Opinion, Rather Than Evidence

Presently the judge is hearing legal arguments on the tabling of a 2010 Ernst & Young audit report that deals with Senate expenditures.  The prosecution is arguing that the report is hearsay and not relevant in the trial against Mike Duffy.  Further, the prosecution considers the tabling of the document as an infringement of “parliamentary privilege”.  Added to the legal wrangling, Judge Charles Vaillancourt has already expressed some frustration with the prosecution’s strategy and how they are presenting, through witnesses, opinion as evidence.  From my perspective, the prosecution’s strategy and the use of “parliamentary privilege” is a key element in protecting others from prosecution while at the same time win their case against Mike Duffy.  How Judge Vaillancourt rules on the 2010 Senate report is yet to come but it is worth noting, by not tabling the report the public will view the situation as a major cover-up on the part of the Conservative led Senate and interference by the Harper government.  And one cannot forget the yet to be tabled Auditor General Ferguson’s report on Senate expenditures – an investigation that started two years ago.  Mr. Ferguson’s report is expected to be given to the leader of the Senate for consideration in the first week of June. 

A Final Thought

I continue to support the Senate as an extremely important government institution and a major pillar in Canada’s parliamentary system, but the Mike Duffy trial has exposed the Red Chamber as a broken institution that is in desperate need of fixing.  Only Justin Trudeau took reasonable action by declaring Liberal Senators to be Independent and recommending that future Senators be declared with the advice from an independent panal.