Harper Hit Hard with Alberta's NDP Win

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 76) May 20, 2015

Judging Canada’s ever changing political scene has become even more complicated with the NDP election win in Alberta.  While Rachel Notley continues to muse about how she is going to govern Alberta, mandarins in Ottawa are trying to sort out the implications of Alberta’s Orange Wave election results and whether there is a mood swing within the country’s electorate?

An Unexpected  Orange Wave Hits Alberta

The Rachel Notley, New Democratic election win in Alberta was a real shocker for anybody and everybody interested in politics.  Winning 54 seats of the 87 seat legislative assembly, the NDP established itself as the chosen alternative opposite a political culture that has lost its way.  The Alberta PC loss is being attributed to a good number of factors, all having substance and credibility – beginning with Allison Redford and her feeling of entitlement, for both herself and her government.  When Jim Prentice offered his cold “look in the mirror” remark in response to the government’s financial mess, the people of Alberta felt insulted, if not betrayed.  Then he presented a budget that was viewed to be anti-people and pro-corporation.  Quickly the political momentum shifted to the down-to-earth personality of Rachel Notley.  Polls taken after the leadership debate indicated that change was inevitable and the Rachel Notley team was leading.  The debate held just days before the election, is when and where Rachel Notley clearly and skillfully demonstrated that she was premier material, was  empathetic toward an apprehensive public, and could stand up to her competitors – the rest is history.

Can An Orange Wave Sweep Canada?

The big question circulating throughout Canada and in the various campaign war rooms in Ottawa; will what happened in Alberta on May 5 be repeated in the upcoming federal election?  An EKOS political poll taken just after the Alberta election (between May 6 through 12) saw support for Thomas Mulcair’s ND party move up 5 percentage points in just one week and settled into a virtual tie with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 30 percent – Justin Trudeau’s Liberals garnered 27 percent support.  Now a single poll does not necessarily indicate a trend nor does it indicate a wave of support for the national NDP.  But it is positive movement and Thomas Mulcair has got to be pleased, if not ecstatic.  What is real and cannot be denied, the NDP won a majority government in the country’s center for right wing thinking – so dramatic change is possible in the most unbelievable places.  My conclusion, it all depends on the fickle nature of the public and the reality of mood swings – the public was dissatisfied with the PC government in Alberta and the public was fed up and got change in the ballot box.  A good number of Canadians are dissatisfied with the performance of the Harper government and want change but that in itself does not mean there is going to be a ground swell for change.  What the Alberta election proves that anything is possible – and that has got the political mandarins in Ottawa worried. 

Winning the Hearts and Minds of Canadians

The war rooms of the national political parties have got to be buzzing with changes to their election campaign strategies and how their political leadership will be presented to the Canadian public from now to election-day – in light of the NDP win in Alberta.  Party spokespeople are already squabbling about the expected leadership debates.  Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have found that the traditional debating format is unacceptable – where the big TV broadcasters, CBC, CTV and Global, structure the issues, questions and the debating format.  I think it is obvious; Stephen Harper doesn’t want to debate the likes of Thomas Mulcair or Justin Trudeau.  What Stephen Harper’s spokespeople want are friendly, set questions coming from friendly news men and women.  From my perspective, how to handle debates issue is just a tactic to avoid having a healthy dialogue on performance and issues facing Canada – and for the prime minister he needs to defend his record and his performance.  There are many important questions that should be debated – as the Alberta leadership debate in Alberta clearly demonstrated, each question and each response can be a mood changer for the electorate.      

Alberta Election, VOLCANIC

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 7) May 13, 2015

The May 5, 2015 election in Alberta is now history with pundits labelling the results astounding and ground breaking – my take on the results, VOLCANIC! 

The Results

Rachel Notley and her Alberta New Democratic Party swept much of the province on May 5^th.  The NDP garnered over 40 percent of the popular vote and 53 seats in the 87 seat Alberta Legislative Assembly.  Brian Jean and the Alberta Wildrose Party got 24 percent of the popular vote and won 21seats in the Legislative Assembly – the Wildrose is now the Alberta government’s Official Opposition.  The Alberta Liberal Party with 4 percent of the popular vote and the Alberta Party with 2 percent support, each won a single seat.  The Alberta Progressive Conservative Party suffered a number of catastrophic losses.  The PCs received 28 percent of the popular vote (devastating) and 10 seats in the Alberta Legislative Assembly (embarrassing).  When the results became clear, Jim Prentice acknowledged personal responsibility for the PC debacle.  Adding further insults to an obviously demoralized, critically wounded party, Jim Prentice summarily resigned his leadership position at the PC association and with the same breath, resigned the seat that he had just won in the Calgary-Foothills constituency.

The Results in Perspective

Putting Alberta’s election results into some sort of perspective is not a task for the faint at heart, particularly if you’re a die-hard “progressive” conservative.  Let me put forward some of my views regarding present circumstances, circumstances that can only be described as volatile.

Alberta’s Economic Circumstance, Shaky  

In the past six months, Alberta’s economic circumstance has moved from a boom scenario to bust situation – largely due to the 2014 collapse of international oil prices.  Currently energy prices are creeping upward, toward more economically realistic levels.  Along with a lower Canadian dollar, the energy sector in Alberta should be more optimistic than what is being reported in the media.  Nevertheless there are a number of big outstanding political issues facing the energy industry in Alberta and the issues all relate to politics.  With the election of an NDP government in Alberta the issues have been significantly magnified, making energy CEOs very edgy and hesitant.

Alberta’s Political Circumstance, Shaky

As the new economic reality settled in during the first three months of 2015 the mood of Albertans swung from carefree optimism and anticipation to apprehension, despair and fear.  The public’s mood was electrified at the end of March when Premier Prentice offered Albertans a belt-tightening budget as part of a 10 year plan.  The 10 year plan was aimed at addressing the government’s financial quagmire.  The 2015 budget details were interpreted by Albertans as being a direct hit on the average Albertan, with no hit directed at the corporate world.  The under-current of dissatisfaction turned to a tsunami.  The televised leader’s debate is where Rachel Notley, leader of the New Democrats, stole the show and demonstrated that she had what it takes to be a premier.  And along the way, she came across as a people’s person who is standing up to the status quo politicians.

Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Circumstance, Shaky

With the poor showing of the Alberta PCs in the May 5 election and the resignation of Jim Prentice as party leader on election night has put the party in a very precarious, if not dire situation.  The ire of PC supporters was magnified when Mr. Prentice resigned his seat that he had just won.  I understand that a letter is being circulated to Alberta PC members (haven’t received mine) indicating that the Alberta PC Association is resolute to remain a progressive conservative movement.  How this tattered progressive party deals with its commitment to remain “progressive” is yet to be explained.  The bigger question in my mind, can the progressive conservatives in Alberta remain independent of the more extreme views on the right, a struggle that produced a political disaster at the federal level less than 10 years ago – only time will tell?

Alberta New Democratic Party Circumstance, Shaky

Rachel Notley and the New Democrats have the majority and the numbers to sustain a government for a full term – even with a block on the right.  What is lacking in a New Democratic government is depth but lacking depth is not unusual when there’s been revolutionary political change – it was successfully dealt with in 1971 when Peter Lougheed took over from the 32 year reign of the Social Credit party – no doubt in my mind, it can and will be dealt with in 2015 by Rachel Notley.  Not only is there going to be a sharp learning curve for good number of neophyte politicians but there is another major challenge that Notley will have to address in the next few months, how to quickly change the culture in an entrenched civil service?  Rachel Notley is facing numerous challenges in the coming weeks and months – her agenda is long and complex – it’s going to be interesting to watch and digest her actions.  For those who are so disappointed in the election results (myself included), Rachel Notley won the election of May 5, 2015 handily and therefore deserves a chance to prove that her approach is better than what was.   

Duffy Trial - Bigger Than You Think!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 74) May 6, 2015

I’m writing this column not knowing who Alberta’s next premier is and you will be reading the same column knowing who the premier-elect is – an interesting mix-up due to my copy deadline.  So let me describe some of the shenanigans going on in Ottawa as it relates to the Mike Duffy trial and leave the Alberta election results and the consequences for next week’s column.

Duffy Trial – An Expose of Privilege and Interference

The so called Duffy trial is well into its third week of deliberation with no clear end-date in sight.  Witnesses for the prosecution are being put on the stand to castigate Mr. Duffy and his actions, suggesting that his actions were somehow unusual and singular in the Red Chamber.  Mr. Duffy’s defence is more subtle at this stage in the trial, arguing that the rules of conduct within the Senate chamber were ill-defined at best, and virtually non-existent when it comes to application – and most definitely, strongly influenced by outside political forces. 

Arguing With Opinion, Rather Than Evidence

Presently the judge is hearing legal arguments on the tabling of a 2010 Ernst & Young audit report that deals with Senate expenditures.  The prosecution is arguing that the report is hearsay and not relevant in the trial against Mike Duffy.  Further, the prosecution considers the tabling of the document as an infringement of “parliamentary privilege”.  Added to the legal wrangling, Judge Charles Vaillancourt has already expressed some frustration with the prosecution’s strategy and how they are presenting, through witnesses, opinion as evidence.  From my perspective, the prosecution’s strategy and the use of “parliamentary privilege” is a key element in protecting others from prosecution while at the same time win their case against Mike Duffy.  How Judge Vaillancourt rules on the 2010 Senate report is yet to come but it is worth noting, by not tabling the report the public will view the situation as a major cover-up on the part of the Conservative led Senate and interference by the Harper government.  And one cannot forget the yet to be tabled Auditor General Ferguson’s report on Senate expenditures – an investigation that started two years ago.  Mr. Ferguson’s report is expected to be given to the leader of the Senate for consideration in the first week of June. 

A Final Thought

I continue to support the Senate as an extremely important government institution and a major pillar in Canada’s parliamentary system, but the Mike Duffy trial has exposed the Red Chamber as a broken institution that is in desperate need of fixing.  Only Justin Trudeau took reasonable action by declaring Liberal Senators to be Independent and recommending that future Senators be declared with the advice from an independent panal.   

Alberta Election Suggests a Coalition

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 73) April 29, 2015

Tuesday, May 5 is Election Day in Alberta and that means this article is my last kick at the cat and offer my insights as to what might be unfolding.  The way things are unfolding, the electoral vote could result in monumental change to the province’s political landscape.   Here is my take on the situation in a province that is six days away from D day.   

The Alberta Leadership Debate

Last week’s leadership debate between the four wan-a-be premiers was revealing and for some pundits the event was a game changer.  From my perspective the debate crystalized the four campaign strategies and yes, the debate was a game changer.    

In the debate, Jim Prentice of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party defended his government’s austerity approach to address what can only be described as dire financial circumstances in Alberta.  Mr. Prentice and his government passed a ten year action plan in the Alberta Legislative Assembly, a plan that he felt would address the major economic and social issues facing the province in a business-like, realistic manner.  Mr. Prentice felt it necessary to go to the electorate for approval.    

David Swann of the Alberta Liberal Party nervously tried to contribute to the debate, was unsuccessful and in his interruptions and in the end was ignored.  One pundit indicated that Mr. Swann stumbled through his presentations and his comments were flat, cold and uninspiring.

Brian Jean of the Alberta Wildrose Party was defensive and unresponsive in last week’s leadership debate.  When challenged by Mr. Prentice on the Wildrose’s proposal for a two tired healthcare system, Mr. Jean was vague and unresponsive.  When repeatedly asked about how a Wildrose government would finance an $18billion shortfall in government revenues Mr. Jean was again was vague and unresponsive.  In the debate Jean came across like a broken record and repeatedly said he would deal with financial crisis in the government without instituting any tax increases without giving specifics on how he would generate revenue.   

Rachel Notley of the Alberta New Democratic Party was clearly the winner in the debate last Thursday.  She seemed to be comfortable in her party’s platform and at times challenged Mr. Prentice into confusion – as one pundit put it, Rachel Notley was the sharpest knife in the drawer.  Ms. Notley’s performance at the debate proved that she could stand up to the most astute politicians in Alberta and she was premier material.

The Polls Give the New Democrats Momentum

Trying to measure the mood of the electorate is a dangerous business but it is done all the time – its call polling.  My family has received at least five calls from polling companies in the past month or so asking how we would vote in the Alberta election.  On the internet there are listed some 11 official polls that give published results and the results are damaging for Jim Prentice and the Alberta PCs.  Of the eleven published polls 5 give the edge to the NDP, 3 of the polls favor the Wildrose Party and another 3 suggest that it is a toss-up between the New Democrats and the Wildrose.  None of the polls give the edge to the Alberta PCs.

My Perspective – I Continue to Support Prentice and the Alberta PCs

The Alberta public is in a state of shock by what has and is happening in the province’s boom to bust economy.  Fear and apprehension are in the mindsets of many Albertans today and they are looking for some assurance and stability from their government leaders.  In my view Jim Prentice and the Alberta PCs have offered a reasonable approach to digging the province out of its financial / economic mess; nevertheless, it is going to take time and some belt tightening.  As to the Wildrose position, the math doesn’t add up and there is no explanation on how they would address the financial crisis.  Equally the New Democrats are suggesting a royalty review which would prove to be disastrous for investment under present circumstances – there is a time for a royalty review, but now is not the time.

With the polls suggesting a three way race to the finish, there is an even more dire circumstance that could beset the province on May 6 – a three way tie in the number of seats held by the PC, Wildrose and the NDP.  AND THAT MEANS COALITION – Heaven forbid! 

Harper Needs to Support Alberta

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 72) April 22, 2015

When it comes to election campaigns, hopeful candidates and their leaders are generally “vaguely” clear when making promises and commitments.  In Canada there are two major election campaigns underway, each revealing a campaign strategy with different twists and turns.  Albertans will be going to the polls in less than two weeks and by the vote count will be establishing a “new” legislative assembly for the province.  In announcing the election date Premier Prentice asked Albertans for a clear mandate to address the government’s collapsed financial infrastructure, a situation almost entirely due to the cascading drop in 2014 oil prices.  Said another way, Alberta has moved from a boom economy to a bust economy in a matter of a year and the province needs financial fixing and it needs it now.  At the same time, Prime Minister Harper’s government is offering Canadians a “balanced” federal budget with an outlook that includes commitments promises to bolster tax relief for select demographic groups and at the same time maintaining a low tax system for the corporate sector.  While the law indicates a federal election in October there are a growing number of pundits suggesting a much earlier election date – possibly June?

May 5, 2015 – Decision Time in Alberta

Last year’s catastrophic drop in international oil prices has caused many, many Albertans to ask:  how did Alberta get into this economic mess and is there a way out?  Said another way, how should Alberta position itself to deal with the existing uncertainty and turmoil?  Premier Prentice appropriately tabled an austerity budget and a 10 year recovery plan to address the reality of Alberta’s current financial circumstances.  I am convinced that Premier Prentice has taken the right course of action to deal with the current financial situation in Alberta.  If Alberta and the other provinces are to pursue a path toward sustainable prosperity it is now up to federal authorities and Prime Minister Harper himself to acknowledge and address a number of core issues that requires federal leadership – issues that Mr. Harper seems to be ignoring in his campaign for re-election.  The issues are evident.  Mr. Harper has to acknowledge the need for:  a national energy strategy that puts Canada first; setting national environmental standards that acknowledge reasonable international standards; addressing the aboriginal questions and the role aboriginals will have to play in confederation; and setting the conditions to move energy product to tide water and making Alberta energy a preferred option in Canada.