Election Needed - Canada (Alberta) in a Petro Fix

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 57) December 10, 2015

2014 has not been a particularly good year for Prime Minister Harper and his Conservative Party “majority” government.  The Harper government has stumbled or failed in a number of important political areas; including the so-so performance of the Canadian economy and his unusual mindset on how the Government of Canada should operate.  I can only assume that his controlling management style and his failed policy initiatives will be thrown back at him and his Conservative candidates during the 2015 election campaign – an election that could come sooner than expected.

The Canadian Economy

Having and maintaining a strong, vibrant Canadian economy has always been a key plank in the Harper approach to governance and now, a critical part of the Conservative Party’s election campaign strategy.  Unfortunately the economy has not performed as Mr. Harper wanted or expected in 2014.  The reality is obvious, the national economy only sputtered upward in 2014 with job creation figures and unemployment rates jumping every which way on monthly data charts with no clear trend to indicate optimism.  Simply put, if it weren’t for the booming energy economies in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland the country would be in deep trouble, both financially and economically.  As to the Canadian economy in 2015 and the years beyond, who knows?  With the international price of oil plummeting the way it has over the last five months there is only one course of action to guide Canada out of this quagmire of uncertainty:  have an early national election and elect representatives and leaders that have a national vision for Canada; that can unify the dispirit interests of his/her constituency; operate in a respective parliamentary way and in the end, do a lot of Nation Building through consensus.  Otherwise Canada will continue to be simple hewers of wood, drawers of water where there is constant bickering as to who wields the axe and who owns the pail. 

OPEC Pricing of International Oil

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) effectively sets the international price for oil through its level of production.  The OPEC member (presently 12 member countries) met in Vienna in late November and decided to maintain its level of production and that decision is driving down the international price for crude oil even further.  OPEC’s explanation for the cascade, the OPEC members want to retain about 40 per cent share of the world’s oil consumption market.  The reality is that there is an oversupply of oil in some countries (the United States being one) and they too are starting to export.  Experts are estimating that there is about 700,000 barrels a day in excess supply.  Understandably the OPEC countries are trying to protect their present status.  The implications for Alberta and Canada are enormous – after all Canada (Alberta) is presently and aggressively trying to build oil pipelines to access tide water and access new foreign markets.   Alberta (Canada) has the third largest reserves of oil in the world, so there is little wonder that OPEC is eyeing activities in Canada and its aggressive construction program suspiciously.          

In the last five months there has been a virtual collapse of the international oil pricing mechanism.  In June, 2014 the international price for oil was US$107, today it is under US$70 a barrel and dropping.  As to the impact very low oil prices is going to have on Canada’s energy sector the jury is still out on the matter but one thing is obvious, the bloom on the Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland economies has dimmed considerably. 

There are other consequences that are more positive.  Gasoline prices have dropped significantly and that pleases the motorist.  The plunging oil prices are having a direct impact on the value of Canadian dollar opposite the US dollar and that’s good news for Canada’s export sector (Ontario). 

Predicting the Next Federal Election

There is a lot of debate and speculation as to when the next federal election will and might be held.  The triggers to calling an early election for March: sustained low international oil prices that wipes out federal surpluses; the low oil prices generates cancellation of significant oil patch activity; employment figures start going in the wrong direction; the prime minister feels that the Duffy trial (that begins on April 5) will reveal a cover up and significant complicity by the prime minister and his office.

The triggers that will delay the election to the fall:  the economy picks up (an exports surge due to the low Canadian dollar) employment increases in key sectors; the Keystone pipeline is given the OK by President Obama.

You guessed it, an election will be called in February, 2015.

SEX Sells Newspapers

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 56) December 3, 2014

In the last month or so the Canadian news media has inundated itself with sex scandal after sex scandal.  To the glee of reporters and the public alike; SEX, SLEAZE and SCUTTLEBUTT garners a lot attention from the public and if you are using the British tabloid model, “it sells newspapers”. 

The Jian Ghomeshi Scandal 

Just after the sex scandal broke Mr. Ghomeshi published a rather arrogant response to the blockbuster expose.  In his view, his pain inflicting, masochistic sexual activities are acts between consenting adults and therefore nobody else’s business.  Not so for the three female, one male accusers who have come forward with much different stories.  Ghomeshi is now facing five serious charges and could serve serious jail time if the charges are proven in court – one charge is for choking and carries a sentence up to a life.  Mr. Ghomeshi posted $100,000 bail, surrendered his passport and the 47 year old was released from custody in the care of his mother – the Ghomeshi trial re-convenes on January 8, 2015.  As to what the Ghomeshi scandal has to do with politics – probably nothing other than it is an introduction to sex on Parliament Hill.   

The Parliament Hill Sex Scandal

Things have gotten a lot messier on Parliament Hill these days and you guessed it, it has to do with sex amongst the political elite of this country.  Two Liberal MPs were summarily dismissed from the Liberal caucus because of an informal discussion a complainant had with Liberal leader Justin Trudeau – actually there are two accusers, both female and both members of the New Democratic caucus.  Apparently both accusers want to remain anonymous and neither wants to lodge a “formal” complaint.  As more sordid details are revealed to the press it becomes more obvious to me; Justin Trudeau acted properly and as leader of the Liberal Party, acted with political integrity.  As to the leader of the New Democratic Party and how he is handling the scandal, Mr. Mulcair is botching it big time.  In my view, Mr. Mulcair has always been a champion of political transparency and has consistently used his political skills to effectively hold the Harper government to account for their misadventures – but not only is he un-transparent on this particular matter, he is going in the wrong direction – the result, he is digging himself and his party into an even deeper hole.  The best thing Mr. Mulcair can do is come clean with the public; distinguish between the two complainants and express regrets as to how things have unfolded.  For one of the complainants it appears that she is basing her defensive argument on the definition and meaning of consensual sex.  Based on what is being reported in the press her arguments are very weak and therefore she should apologize to all involved and resign from the House of Commons.  As to the second unknown complainant; the rumor is that the issue is “stalking”.  If stalking is the concern than the matter should be turned over and handled by the police.  As to the suggestion that a process is needed to deal with personal misconduct issues within the halls of the Parliament, it’s up to the Speakers (of the Senate and the House of Commons) and their respective security forces to pass judgement.  Otherwise and outside the traditions and protection of the Houses of Parliament, parliamentarians are like everyone else and the law of the land prevails. 

The Peter Goldring Factor – An Interesting Twist

Last week Conservative MP Peter Goldring added his own recommendation to those in Ottawa who want to avoid any confusion when soliciting or offering sexual favors; wear a video camera to avoid any “besmirchment” of ones character at a later date.  Almost immediately the statement was withdrawn by Mr. Goldring with the retraction coming directly from Prime Minister Harper’s office – so much for independent thinking in the Conservative Party.  For me I learned a lot from Mr. Goldring’s bizarre statement and it’s not good for either species. To put it in terms that I understand:  Courting, Flirting and Cavorting is a Risky Business!   

The Wildrose on the Brink

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 55) November 26, 2014

Wildrose at a Crossroads and Taking the Wrong Turn?

The 2014 Annual General Meeting of the Wildrose Party was planned to be a spirit building, ho-hum meeting of the party faithful.  Things didn’t turn out as planned when a very telling resolution on human rights policy was defeated by 58 percent of the party faithful.  The resolution proposed that a Wildrose government would defend the rights of all Albertans “regardless of race, religious belief, color, gender, physical disability, mental disability, age, ancestry, place of origin, marital status, source of income, family status, or sexual orientation of that person or class of persons.”  The vote on November 15: 148 against the resolution, 109 in favor.  The intent of the defeated motion was to make the Wildrose Party more inclusive and the effort failed with the grass roots vote at the annual meeting.  Undaunted by the setback Danielle Smith and her caucus adopted a “binding statement” on equality rights similar to the one rejected by party representatives two weeks earlier.  What it means to me, a significant portion of Wildrose base (up to 60 percent) want to retain “traditional family values” as core elements of the Wildrose’s platform – it means blocking increased gay rights and resisting more liberal abortion policies.  But that’s not all Danielle Smith has to worry about.  Still bruised by the four by-election loses to Jim Prentice last October Danielle Smith now has to contend with three recent party defections, two of which crossed the floor to join the Progressive Conservatives.  Whether Danielle Smith can repair a fractured party is still an open question, but if the Wildrose movement is to survive she had better listen more closely to her more libertarian base.

Michael Sona Sentenced

Former Conservative Party of Canada staff member Michael Sona has been sentenced to nine months in prison and a year’s probation for misdirecting voters in the 2011 federal election.  The judge presiding over the case said Sona showed a “callous and blatant disregard for the right of people to vote”.  Judge Hearn went further and said that Sona was a major participant in this ill-conceived and disturbing plan.  Michael Sona is still considering his legal options.  Sona is the only one charged with misleading voters in the Guelph, Ontario robocall scandal.  Andrew Prescott – deputy campaign manager was given an immunity deal in exchange for evidence against Michael Sona.  Ken Morgan – Guelph Conservative Manager moved to Kuwait and has never spoken to Elections Canada investigators.  Sona has always maintained his innocence with the claim that he had been scapegoated by the Conservative Party of Canada.  Surely there must be more to the story than what has been offered – hopefully this file remains active with Elections Canada and the RCMP, and all culprits are brought to justice – or has justice been served? 

Crisis Management

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 54) November 19, 2014

When addressing major issues, politicians use carefully chosen words as their primary tool to create relationships and hopefully, agreements – after all, if you can’t trust a politician’s word whose word can you trust?  At the same time politicians have used carefully chosen words to threaten their adversaries – where words are used to create weapons that lead to crisis and outright conflict.

Elevating the Crisis in Ukraine

At last week’s G-20 summit conference in Australia Prime Minister Harper of Canada offered his hand to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin saying:  “I guess I’ll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you:  You need to get out of Ukraine.”  Putin’s apparent reply was:  “That’s impossible because we are not there.”  Media observers concluded that the exchange between Harper and Putin was a diplomatically vulgar exchange of jabs.  I have drawn a somewhat different conclusion.  Prime Minister Harper is not known to make off-handed, spur of the moment remarks and that means Harper’s statement was orchestrated with the support of the major power brokers.  The encounter also means that the eastern provinces of Ukraine will become a major war zone with increased military support coming from Canada and other NATO countries.  From a political perspective Mr. Harper has again elevated himself to be a major player on the international stage; all to the chagrin of Mulcair and Trudeau who wanted to fight the up-coming election on domestic issues.   

Politics in Smoky Lake – A Regional Mini-Crisis

A major disservice has been delivered to the Smoky Lake community, a community with dozens of volunteer groups, groups that have always operated in the best interests of the community – how did things go so wrong?  To make matters worse, misinformation is being blasted out over the airwaves that are marring a once positive image of Smoky Lake, a community not operating at its best.  It started with a notification letter sent by Smoky Lake Town Council to the Smoky Lake Agricultural Society stating that the town would no longer live up to its contracted maintenance commitments at its massive recreational Complex.   At the same time the town issued termination notices to the contractors hired to do maintenance work at the complex.

Some councillors and at least one town administrative officer have gone viral on the internet to trash the Ag Society and its “volunteer” board of directors – suggesting that the Society has $500,000 dollars in cash and does not need any support from the Town of Smoky Lake.  What the         e-mails from the town do not indicate is that the Society has major commitments that require cash to be held in reserve – for projects that are either underway or where grants are being applied for, all requiring   contractual commitment.  To set the record straight there is $445,000 in the bank (as of last Friday) – if one considers the reserves necessary for the commitments, an estimated $58,000 remains for operating and maintaining the facility.  After consulting with the various user groups President Sharon Boychuk wrote to Smoky Lake Town Council and notified the Council that the Smoky Lake Agricultural Society would “relinquish responsibility” for the Complex as of September 1, 2015.  That date was chosen based on the desire to accommodate some already scheduled events like completing the minor hockey season this winter and accommodating about six already scheduled weddings where deposits have been collected. 

 As to making sense of the abrupt action of the Smoky Lake Town Council, one explanation has been offered:  the cost of maintenance is higher than anticipated.  Digging deeper I think there is another explanation that better fits current circumstances and it’s all political – the Town Council is using the possible closure of the Complex as a lever to get Smoky Lake County to give more financial support toward the operations of the Complex – a reasonable argument when one considers usage.  What the Town Council ignored in their strategy is the impact this mini-crisis has on volunteerism in the Smoky Lake region and by their abrupt actions, Town Council has severely jeopardized current fund raising initiatives and existing applications for major grants. 

Does Canada Have a Value System?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 53) November 12, 2014

Last week, while Steven Harper was making deals in China, Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau were in Ottawa squabbling over what constituted “personal misconduct” by two Liberal MPs.  Little doubt, Steven Harper knows how to play the international political game extremely well when compared to his political rivals– both Mulcair and Trudeau are starting to look and act like buffoons in Canada’s eye.  As to whether Mr. Harper is able to win the hearts and minds of Canadians in the next election is still an open question but the opposition party leaders had best face up to political reality.  And let’s not forget about the other headline grabber, media star Jian Ghomeshi.  Mr. Ghomeshi has put a whole new light on sexual liberation – I’m the guy who not too many years ago thought that homosexuality would remain in the closet.

Harper’s China Trip

Prime Minister Harper just returned from the Peoples Republic of China to attend Remembrance Day ceremonies in Ottawa – both events would have to be considered political successes for Mr. Harper.  While in China Mr. Harper oversaw the signing of about $2 billion in trade agreements and signed a very significant financial arrangement with China’s Premier Li Keqiang.  Authorized by China’s central bank, the so-called Chinese “trading hub” will allow for direct business between Canada and China using the Canadian dollar and the Chinese Yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB), cutting out the middleman which in most cases means the U.S. dollar.  Experts are saying that this new financial hub could save up to 5 – 6 percent in transaction costs and would save considerable time in doing the necessary paperwork.  From my perspective it is far too early to draw any firm conclusions about this new financial arrangement with China.  Nevertheless, with two dozen hubs locations around the world, Canada had no choice but to join the Hub Club.  The real question for Canada, was what the Prime Minister signed on November 8 a good deal for the nation, was it a necessary evil or was it global entrapment where national boarders and government regulations are irrelevant?

Two Liberals on the Chopping Block

Liberal MPs Scott Andrews and Massimo Pacetti have been hung out to dry in what has become a parliamentary fiasco for both Mr. Mulcair of the New Democrats and Justin Trudeau of the Liberals.  When it comes to politics I have often used the phrase:  In the absence of transparency, one can only speculate.  This whole scenario is wrapped in unwarranted secrecy and is unfolding to the detriment of both the New Democratic Party and the Liberals.  What is known:  two female New Democrats were apparently hassled or harassed by two male Liberal MPs.  Neither of the female MPs considered the affronts to be serious enough to lodge a formal complaint.  Nevertheless one of the New Democrat females went to Justin Trudeau to informally complain – presumably without seeking guidance or advice from her leader, Thomas Mulcair – that in itself is a political no – no.  After hearing the concerns Mr. Trudeau immediately suspended Scott Andrews and Massimo Pacetti from the Liberal caucus and because there is no process to deal with such matters, the Liberal leader referred the matter to the Speaker of the House of Commons.  The Speaker without a process in mind referred the matter to parliament’s most secret committee for consideration – a committee that does not have to explain or justify its decisions.  As to whether Liberal leader Trudeau made the right decision to suspend Andrews and Pacetti, I think he did – he had no other choice.  As to the correctness of a New Democrat going to the Liberal leader and offer a not-so-serious concern(s), the approach was unwise and demonstrated poor political judgement.  From my perspective politics is all about words and personality and that is threatened with this incident that is now being handled by a secret committee.  Too many politicians in Canada are being molded by handlers where personalities are crafted rather than genuine, mistake making personalities.  So as Canadians await further information and clarification there is little doubt, four political careers hang in the balance.    

The Balloon Bursts for Jian Ghomeshi – Simply put, star of radio and television program Q, Jian Ghomeshi is a self- proclaimed participant in masochistic sexual perversions.  Ghomeshi needs more than therapy, he needs serious jail time.