Harper Had a Bad Week, Trudeau Had a Good Week, Mulcair Had a So-so Week

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 14) February 5, 2014

There is a lot to talk and write about when it comes to recent events in national politics.  Here are some recent headlines and my views on the issues: 

“Keystone XL gets environmental OK from U.S. State Dept.” (CBC News, January 31, 2014)

The U.S. State Department has given approval for the Keystone XL Pipeline project saying that it has no major environmental concerns regarding the construction of the $7 billion project.  A few points need to be considered – this latest review is the fifth environmental assessment done on the project – the southern portion of the pipeline is already operating and moving oil from Oklahoma to Gulf Coast refineries - U.S. industry is claiming that the U.S. has an oil surplus, with some firms now applying for export permits – the final decision, regarding the application to move Alberta’s product will be made by the President of the United States and for the present, no timeline has been set for a final decision.  My view is the Democratic base supporting President Obama doesn’t want the northern portion of the Keystone XL project undertaken and the U.S. doesn’t need Alberta’s oil, at least for the time being.  It adds up to be very bad news for Prime Minister Harper who has championed the project from the start and considers Keystone a major plank in the Conservative’s Economic Action Plan.  According to a number of observers a decision on the pipeline will not be made by the U.S. president until late 2014 and if Democratic politics in the U.S. remains as it is today, the likely answer will be a major delay if not an outright no – hope I’m wrong.   

“Liberals will reopen closed Veterans’ offices” (NL News Now, February 3, 2014) 

The Conservative government has again been plagued with a public relations disaster – this time the focus is on Veteran’s Affairs Minister Julian Fantino, the closing of eight regional Veterans Affairs offices and Mr. Fantino’s apparent inappropriate attitude at a single meeting with veterans last week.  With the help of the union movement protests have blossomed across the country with the public and veterans asking for Mr. Fantino’s resignation from his portfolio.  Thomas Mulcair has called Mr. Fantino’s actions disgraceful and the minister should be fired.  Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has taken a more calculated, astute political perspective by saying; when the Liberals form government he will not only re-open any offices closed by the Conservatives but expand services to ensure veterans receive the help they so desperately need and deserve.

Trudeau’s Senate Idea fresh, brave – and worth considering (The Globe and Mail, January 30, 2014)

The Globe and Mail columnist Jeffery Simpson has likened the current debate on reforming the broken Senate to be a “puzzle without a solution”.  From my perspective if there is to be a solution one first has to clearly identify the problem or problems plaguing the Red Chamber.  From my perspective there are three clear problems associated with the Senate mess, two of which are being addressed, at least in part.  The first problem has two issues; the loose, uncontrolled expenses and residency guidelines.  The audit underway is reviewing all expenses for all Senators and the report is expected to be released soon with specific control measures recommended.  The second problem is the role, influence and misdeeds of the Prime Minister’s Office in the operations of the Senate.  The RCMP is investigating possible illegal activity undertaken by individuals but the police will not address the paramount issue of having or building an “independent” Senate free from the influences of party politics and party leadership – so what is the solution, or is it truly a puzzle without a solution?  This all leads to the third major issue – can the Senate be rebuilt to become an “independent” chamber that offers parliament sober, second thought?  It might be Pollyannaish but Justin Trudeau just declared the Liberal Party members sitting in the Senate to be “independent”.  Mr. Trudeau also suggested that the selection of future Senators be taken away from the sitting prime minister – it’s that simple, it’s revolutionary and it just might work. 

About the author – For the past six years Ed Shaske has written a political column for one of Alberta’s rural, weekly newspapers, the Smoky Lake Signal.  Mr. Shaske has accumulated 40 years of experience in both the public and private sectors, as a market analyst, economist and an international trade negotiator – read more at:  edshaske@blogspot.com

Harper's Proposal on Aboriginal Education - Potential Disaster, Smart Politics

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 13) January 29, 2014

The United Way of Calgary has described the plight of aboriginal youth as follows – “Aboriginal youth (First Nations, Metis and Inuit) consistently post lower graduation rates than non-Aboriginal students.  The unemployment rate for Aboriginal people is twice that of non-Aboriginal people and 30 per cent of Aboriginal youth in Calgary live in poverty (2006).  In Alberta the three year high school completion rate 2011/2012 for aboriginal youth was 43.9% compared to 74.8% for the general population.”  What is so tragic and very troubling, a significant number of aboriginal youth cannot see a way out of their circumstance and turn to dangerous drug addiction and even suicide – the coroner of Nunavut has called for a public inquiry into the suicide rate amongst the territory’s youth which last year was 13 ½ times the national average.  As I mentioned in last week’s “Whispering in the Wind” article, it’s time that the federal government and native leaders come together and work together to address a truly tragic situation.  It’s time to stop squabbling over jurisdiction and start cooperative action – the future of Canada’s aboriginal youth is at stake.

Harper’s Proposal on Aboriginal Education

Last October the Harper Government tabled a sweeping proposal for aboriginal education.  Under the proposed legislation, reserve councils will be responsibility for the education system within their respective communities – the reserve council can establish its own educational authority; it can contract out its education program to a provincial school board authority; or it can contract out education to a private sector agency.  The federal government will continue to set “minimum” standards (presumably akin to provincial, territorial educational standards) and monitor performance – if the standards are not met, the federal government reserves the right to intervene with a “temporary” administrator.  The proposal, if enacted as presently proposed, will absolve the federal government of any liability associated with the education set up by the reserve council.  Funding of the proposal is not discussed in the proposal.  For many observers the proposed First Nations Education Act tops the Harper aboriginal agenda.

Aboriginal Response to Harper’s Proposal

Shawn Atleo, Assembly of First Nation’s national chief responded to Harper proposal for educational reform for the nation’s aboriginal communities with a letter to Aboriginal Affairs Minister Bernard Valcourt, outlining five conditions for effective educational reform:  First Nation control over education, guaranteed federal funding, protection of language and culture, joint ‘oversight’ of the new educational system, and ‘meaningful’ consultation with aboriginals.  According to the various news reports, the Harper government wants to have the First Nations Education Act debated in parliament sometime in 2014 – with all the sweeping changes recommended, there is not a lot of time for meaningful negotiations.

  My Take on the Harper Proposal

The Harper government’s proposal to revamp the aboriginal education system is all about politics and only about politics – not about the dire circumstances of aboriginal youth.  It’s like Mr. Harper has washed his hand regarding the aboriginal education issue and saying to Mr. Atleo and other aboriginal leaders, you want control of the education system on reserves, here take it all and be responsible for all of it – if something goes wrong and something will surely go wrong, the aboriginal community will be held responsible.   

Systems Breakdown

Whispering in the Wind WITW 12 January 22, 2013

Canadians are living in troubling times where individual freedoms are trumping the individual’s responsibility to the whole – the individual’s responsibility to society – the individual’s responsibility to the law – the politician’s responsibility to the people of Canada.  It’s time to repair our systems and face the realities of the 21s century. 

System Breakdown – Edmonton International Airport

A serious security incident occurred last week at Edmonton’s International Airport when an 18 year old man was found to be carrying a 15 cm. pipe bomb with a 3 metre-long fuse.  The incident can only be described as bizarre in that Skylar Murphy was able to board an aircraft after the bomb was discovered in his camera case – the RCMP were not notified for four days later.  Mr. Murphy was later charged and the judge decided that Mr. Murphy would serve a one year probation sentence and pay a $100 fine.  The Canadian Air Transport Security Authority (CATSA) – a Crown corporation responsible for security at 58 Canadian airports – responded to the breach of security with a reprimand and further training for the three guards responsible – and that’s about it.  Surely there has got to be more to “it” than just a mistake and the possibility of a ruined family holiday.  For me, the issues are far more serious than dismissing the incident as an innocent, simple mistake - after all it was a pipe bomb and the international community is watching. 

System Breakdown in Parliament – A Failure in Transparency and Accountability

For over a year the House of Commons and the Senate have been embroiled in the so-called Senate Expenses Scandal and the role the Prime Minister’s Office played in disgracing an important component of Canada’s Parliament.  What has become quite evident in the last six months or so is Prime Minister Harper’s  reluctance to clarify his role and the role of his office in the mess.  The RCMP is investigating possible crimes related to money transfers to Mike Duffy from the Prime Minister’s Office and the Conservative Party of Canada – with results and charges expected sometime this year.  For me, the questions asked in the House of Commons have not been answered, even using political speak – with many calling it obfuscation by the prime minister.  For me, it has gotten to the point that the Speaker of the House of Commons, Andrew Scheer has to intervene and make the House of Commons more accountable and transparent.  A similar undertaking has to be undertaken in the Red Chamber.

System Breakdown – Suicide Rates Soar for Aboriginal Communities

The Aboriginal peoples of Canada are suffering from a suicide rate that is about twice that of the total Canadian population – the rate within Inuit communities is even worse, 6 to 11 times higher than the general population.  Nunavut’s coroner has recently called for a public inquiry into the suicide rate amongst the territory’s youth – last year the rate amongst the territory’s youth was 13 ½ times the national average.  For me, it is time that the federal government and native leaders come together and work together to address a tragic situation.  Prime Minister Harper has rightly proposed a new education program for Aboriginal peoples of Canada.  It’s time to stop squabbling over jurisdiction and start cooperative action – the future of Canada’s aboriginal youth is at stake,   

   

Harper's Government Situation

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 11) January 15, 2013

2013 proved to be a particularly dramatic year in Canadian politics and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that things went woefully wrong for Prime Minister Harper, his government and the Conservative Party of Canada.  With the political situation being what it is today a major question has to be asked:  will Prime Minister Harper be able to regain the trust and confidence of Canadian voters in light of the Senate Expenses Scandal? 

Mr. Harper’s “Situation”

Mr. Harper’s current, troubling situation actually began over a year ago with a relatively minor kerfuffle where three Conservative Senators were taking advantage of some lax, unenforced Senate expense and residency rules.  Things exploded for the Prime Minister in May, 2013 when it was revealed that the Prime Minister’s office was directly involved in making cash payments to Senator Mike Duffy for his disputed expenses.  Mr. Harper’s image was further damaged with Canadians by his performance in the House of Commons where he refused to offer any clarity regarding his personal role in the Duffy payments.  Many Canadians viewed Mr. Harper’s performance and statements in the House of Commons as misleading and covering up other nefarious actions yet to be revealed.  The economy, Mr. Harper’s political strength, suffered a blow with the announcement that 60,000 permanent jobs were lost in the month of December with the overall unemployment rate increasing to 7.2 percent, up from 6.9 percent recorded in November.  Now one month’s statistic does not establish a trend but what is very disturbing is the youth unemployment rate climbed to 14 percent and that figure alone has got to be a wake-up call for the Harper government – and the need to address the impacts of the government’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program.

Conservative Party of Canada’s “Situation”

According to the Conservative Party of Canada, they are committed to Prime Minister Harper and there doesn’t seem to be any financial problems as a consequence of the Senate scandal –apparently there are fewer donors to the Conservative cause but those that are donating are giving more money. How the Conservative Party of Canada prepares itself for the 2015 election is going to be particularly interesting.  First reality, there are going to be more ridings (from the 308 seats contested in the 2011 election to 338 seats for the 2015 election) and that means new boundaries so no sane incumbent will be able to claim to be in a safe riding.   Second reality and it’s a big one for the Conservatives, there are going to be some major battles at the constituency level during the nomination process – the battle is going to be  between the Red Tories (the old Progressive Conservative group) and the Blue Tories (the old Reform- Alliance group).  One major battle has already surfaced in Calgary with MP Rob Anders (considered to be a staunch Blue Tory with strong ties to Steven Harper) and Merv Leitch (considered to be more progressive and a former Minister in Alberta’s Progressive Conservative government).  The question that comes to mind – will the nomination battle between the Red and Blue Tories filter into other ridings across Canada?  Second question, will Steven Harper hang around to fight in any battles?  

Is There Anybody To Lead Canada?

Whispering in the Wind WITW 10 January 10, 2014

This is the time of year for reflection and anticipation.  For this column, my attempt is to offer some comment on three political figures and their supporting organizations:  Steven Harper, Prime Minister of Canada; Thomas Mulcair, Leader of the Official Opposition and Justin Trudeau, Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. 

Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada:

2013 was a very bad year for Steven Harper and his government.  The Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has cascaded downward from 40 percent in 2011 to something like 24 percent with one recent poll putting him at 18 percent.  There is no doubt in my mind, it was/is Mr. Harper’s attitude and approach to the Senate Scandal (and the 2011 unfolding Robocall scandal) that caused the majority of Canadians to lose faith in Mr. Harper and by extension, his government – simply put, Canadians no longer trust Mr. Harper.  On the other hand Mr. Harper does have some time to move things in a different direction, after all the next federal election is still close to two years away.  There are three things that I will be watching out for in 2014 as it relates to Mr. Harper’s future.  First, how the Conservative Party of Canada views Mr. Harper’s standing in the polls over the next three months and who might emerge as a contender for Mr. Harper’s job – at this point in time only two stand out as possible progressive contenders; Jason Kenney don’t forget the Premier of Saskatchewan.  Second, whether the RCMP investigations determine that there is a direct link to Mr. Harper himself and will those findings be released prior to the election – either way Mr. Harper loses, he will be branded a poor judge of character and a poor manager or he will be identified as part of the conspiracy.  Third, there are a number of major policy questions that Mr. Harper still needs to address – the final approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline and how he will address the aboriginal concerns – how he will address the 2014 Quebec election and the proposed Charter of Values – how Mr. Harper is going to deal with his proposed education program for aboriginal youth, a program that for the moment is being rejected by the Assembly of First Nations.

Thomas Mulcair, Leader of the Official Opposition

2013 was a very good year for Thomas Mulcair.  Mr. Mulcair’s approval rating amongst Canadians has moved in just eight months from 25 percent to 50 percent – he is now considered to be the most popular politician in Quebec.  Mr. Mulcair’s only claim to fame is his performance in the House of Commons – he clearly demonstrated his acute parliamentary skills when challenging Prime Minister Harper’s role in the so-called Senate Scandal – to the point of utter embarrassment for Prime Minister Harper.  Mr. Mulcair’s biggest challenge in 2014 will be to moderate his various New Democratic Party of Canada policy positions toward the center of the political spectrum.  At this point in time the more progressive voters respect his parliamentarian talents but are moving toward Justin Trudeau.  From my perspective Mr. Mulcair’s biggest challenge is going to be how he handles Quebec politics within a national framework. 

Justin Trudeau, Liberal Party of Canada

Justin Trudeau was elected leader of the Liberal Party of Canada in April, 2013 and has already proved to be a major contender when it comes to federal politics.  Mr. Trudeau’s approval rating amongst Canadians stands at 48 percent and is comparable to that of Thomas Mulcair, leader of the Official Opposition.   There is still some doubt about Mr. Trudeau’s capacity to govern – about 23 percent of Canadians are unsure of Justin Trudeau’s talents and leadership qualities.  Two things are operating in his favor.  First the Liberal Party of Canada is a strong, formable organization and second his party has staked out the center as its domain.  As to Mr. Trudeau’s leadership qualities we will see what happens in 2014.  In a year end interview Mr. Trudeau offered little in way of evidence that he can lead and was quite weak in terms of specific policy positions.  Mr. Trudeau will have to show his stripes at the Liberal Party Conference in February, 2014.