Harper's Government Situation

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 11) January 15, 2013

2013 proved to be a particularly dramatic year in Canadian politics and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that things went woefully wrong for Prime Minister Harper, his government and the Conservative Party of Canada.  With the political situation being what it is today a major question has to be asked:  will Prime Minister Harper be able to regain the trust and confidence of Canadian voters in light of the Senate Expenses Scandal? 

Mr. Harper’s “Situation”

Mr. Harper’s current, troubling situation actually began over a year ago with a relatively minor kerfuffle where three Conservative Senators were taking advantage of some lax, unenforced Senate expense and residency rules.  Things exploded for the Prime Minister in May, 2013 when it was revealed that the Prime Minister’s office was directly involved in making cash payments to Senator Mike Duffy for his disputed expenses.  Mr. Harper’s image was further damaged with Canadians by his performance in the House of Commons where he refused to offer any clarity regarding his personal role in the Duffy payments.  Many Canadians viewed Mr. Harper’s performance and statements in the House of Commons as misleading and covering up other nefarious actions yet to be revealed.  The economy, Mr. Harper’s political strength, suffered a blow with the announcement that 60,000 permanent jobs were lost in the month of December with the overall unemployment rate increasing to 7.2 percent, up from 6.9 percent recorded in November.  Now one month’s statistic does not establish a trend but what is very disturbing is the youth unemployment rate climbed to 14 percent and that figure alone has got to be a wake-up call for the Harper government – and the need to address the impacts of the government’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program.

Conservative Party of Canada’s “Situation”

According to the Conservative Party of Canada, they are committed to Prime Minister Harper and there doesn’t seem to be any financial problems as a consequence of the Senate scandal –apparently there are fewer donors to the Conservative cause but those that are donating are giving more money. How the Conservative Party of Canada prepares itself for the 2015 election is going to be particularly interesting.  First reality, there are going to be more ridings (from the 308 seats contested in the 2011 election to 338 seats for the 2015 election) and that means new boundaries so no sane incumbent will be able to claim to be in a safe riding.   Second reality and it’s a big one for the Conservatives, there are going to be some major battles at the constituency level during the nomination process – the battle is going to be  between the Red Tories (the old Progressive Conservative group) and the Blue Tories (the old Reform- Alliance group).  One major battle has already surfaced in Calgary with MP Rob Anders (considered to be a staunch Blue Tory with strong ties to Steven Harper) and Merv Leitch (considered to be more progressive and a former Minister in Alberta’s Progressive Conservative government).  The question that comes to mind – will the nomination battle between the Red and Blue Tories filter into other ridings across Canada?  Second question, will Steven Harper hang around to fight in any battles?  

Is There Anybody To Lead Canada?

Whispering in the Wind WITW 10 January 10, 2014

This is the time of year for reflection and anticipation.  For this column, my attempt is to offer some comment on three political figures and their supporting organizations:  Steven Harper, Prime Minister of Canada; Thomas Mulcair, Leader of the Official Opposition and Justin Trudeau, Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. 

Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada:

2013 was a very bad year for Steven Harper and his government.  The Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has cascaded downward from 40 percent in 2011 to something like 24 percent with one recent poll putting him at 18 percent.  There is no doubt in my mind, it was/is Mr. Harper’s attitude and approach to the Senate Scandal (and the 2011 unfolding Robocall scandal) that caused the majority of Canadians to lose faith in Mr. Harper and by extension, his government – simply put, Canadians no longer trust Mr. Harper.  On the other hand Mr. Harper does have some time to move things in a different direction, after all the next federal election is still close to two years away.  There are three things that I will be watching out for in 2014 as it relates to Mr. Harper’s future.  First, how the Conservative Party of Canada views Mr. Harper’s standing in the polls over the next three months and who might emerge as a contender for Mr. Harper’s job – at this point in time only two stand out as possible progressive contenders; Jason Kenney don’t forget the Premier of Saskatchewan.  Second, whether the RCMP investigations determine that there is a direct link to Mr. Harper himself and will those findings be released prior to the election – either way Mr. Harper loses, he will be branded a poor judge of character and a poor manager or he will be identified as part of the conspiracy.  Third, there are a number of major policy questions that Mr. Harper still needs to address – the final approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline and how he will address the aboriginal concerns – how he will address the 2014 Quebec election and the proposed Charter of Values – how Mr. Harper is going to deal with his proposed education program for aboriginal youth, a program that for the moment is being rejected by the Assembly of First Nations.

Thomas Mulcair, Leader of the Official Opposition

2013 was a very good year for Thomas Mulcair.  Mr. Mulcair’s approval rating amongst Canadians has moved in just eight months from 25 percent to 50 percent – he is now considered to be the most popular politician in Quebec.  Mr. Mulcair’s only claim to fame is his performance in the House of Commons – he clearly demonstrated his acute parliamentary skills when challenging Prime Minister Harper’s role in the so-called Senate Scandal – to the point of utter embarrassment for Prime Minister Harper.  Mr. Mulcair’s biggest challenge in 2014 will be to moderate his various New Democratic Party of Canada policy positions toward the center of the political spectrum.  At this point in time the more progressive voters respect his parliamentarian talents but are moving toward Justin Trudeau.  From my perspective Mr. Mulcair’s biggest challenge is going to be how he handles Quebec politics within a national framework. 

Justin Trudeau, Liberal Party of Canada

Justin Trudeau was elected leader of the Liberal Party of Canada in April, 2013 and has already proved to be a major contender when it comes to federal politics.  Mr. Trudeau’s approval rating amongst Canadians stands at 48 percent and is comparable to that of Thomas Mulcair, leader of the Official Opposition.   There is still some doubt about Mr. Trudeau’s capacity to govern – about 23 percent of Canadians are unsure of Justin Trudeau’s talents and leadership qualities.  Two things are operating in his favor.  First the Liberal Party of Canada is a strong, formable organization and second his party has staked out the center as its domain.  As to Mr. Trudeau’s leadership qualities we will see what happens in 2014.  In a year end interview Mr. Trudeau offered little in way of evidence that he can lead and was quite weak in terms of specific policy positions.  Mr. Trudeau will have to show his stripes at the Liberal Party Conference in February, 2014.    

     

Community Newspaper Threatened

Whispering in the Wind December 16, 2013 (WITW 9)

For me December has always been the month for reflection and the setting of goals for the upcoming year – never mind contending with the recent dumps of snow on my driveway and the buildups of ice near my front door.  Aside from the unusual, uncontrollable weather I do see a storm brewing in the Town of Smoky Lake over a recent decision by four councillors.  Their decision was to end the financial support given to the Smoky Lake Signal for the circulation of its newspaper to town ratepayers.

The December 4, 2013 Decision

At the Town of Smoky Lake Council meeting of December 4, 2013 there was a five minute discussion on the town’s long standing agreement with the Smoky Lake Signal to circulate newspapers to about 500 rate payers in the Town of Smoky Lake.  One councillor voiced that during her election campaign a number of businesses expressed their concern over the subsidy given to the Signal and why shouldn’t their businesses be “topped up” as well.  Another councillor indicated that he was elected to be a good manager and “a lot of budget cuts” were in order.  In the end Councillor Randy Mykitiuk moved to “cancel the bulk subscription program” with the Smoky Lake Signal – the four sitting councillors voted in favor of the motion, Mayor Brousseau was absent from the meeting and the vote.

Lorne Taylor’s Response

In the December 11 issue of the Smoky Lake Signal, owner and publisher of the Signal offered his response to the decision made by the town’s council.  Mr. Taylor explained that the dollar support (about $6,000 annually) is partly offset by a discount given to the town for advertising placed in the paper by the town (about $1,500 to $3,000 annually).  Mr. Taylor calculates the cost to the town to be $12 for each yearly subscription or approximately 25 cents per week per subscriber.  Mr. Taylor also points out that mailing charges are also a major factor in his business – for a $25 yearly subscription it costs the Signal $15 dollars in mailing charges if you live in the area.  Mr. Taylor concludes his open letter with a very disappointing comment: “We are not fighting the decision but another nail has been driven into the coffin of your community newspaper.  It is now up to the Smoky Lake 500 to show if they care by subscribing.”   

My Response

For me the thought of Lorne Taylor and the Signal struggling with Smoky Lake Town Council’s decision is heartbreaking but sooner or later reality sets in and it comes down to the question of the paper’s survival.  For me it is worth a few comments and suggestions:

1.       I’m not a historian but my feeling that when the agreement was first struck some 34 years ago it was a win, win situation for both the townspeople and the Signal.  In my view that situation still exists today. 

2.      The figures that Lorne outlined in his open letter indicate a greater “subsidy” than warranted – I feel the support is under $10.00 per bulk subscriber.  Last week’s announcement by Canada Post that postal rates might double, is bad news for the Signal and should be an indicator to the Town of Smoky Lake (and Smoky Lake County) that support of the Signal is critical.

3.      I think the purpose of a community newspaper is to offer information about what’s going on in the area, the events, the people and yes the politics.  I’ve been on the internet feed to get information and a feel of how the decisions were made at council meetings – the performance of the town website leaves a lot to be desired.

4.      During the December 4 meeting several words were used to describe the arrangement between the town and the Signal – incentive, subsidy – I’ve tried to use the word support.  Another way of looking at the arrangement is the Signal is offering a “service” to the community and therefore there should be a fee for surface.  With the decision made on December 4 that service has been withdrawn from the community.

5.      Another important element is the employment impact of the Signal’s operation.  My understanding is that there are three administrative employees; three reporters and at least two unpaid columnists like me – need I say more?

6.      I cannot speak for Lorne but I feel that more can be done to mend some broken fences.  I would appreciate some feedback, so please write to me at the Signal with your ideas – remember time is short.

Does Language Betray Thought?

Whispering in the Wind (December 2, 2013) WITW8 - 

Does language betray thought?

Nelson Mandela – A Man with Vision and Hope

The death of Nelson Mandela last week has over-taken all other news stories in Canada and around the world.  Mr. Mandela was South Africa’s anti-apartheid icon and President of South Africa from 1994 – 1999.  After spending 27 years in prison for his revolutionary leadership, Mr. Mandela guided South Africa away from the 1948 apartheid policies (i.e. legislated discrimination and segregation) to a more democratic system of governance.  With the passing of Mr. Mandela there is concern that there will be a backlash from those who have not benefited from the reforms introduced by the “father of modern South Africa”.  Important to note, South Africa continues to be labeled by a number of international organizations as one of the most corrupt nations in Africa – so Mr. Mandela’s vision of hope, equality and fraternity has yet to be fully achieved.  In the years to come, one can expect turmoil, chaos and there is even a possibility of violence involving the minorities in South Africa – including the white minority.  In the meantime Prime Minister Harper is attending the State Funeral for Mr. Mandela along with four former Prime Ministers (Brian Mulroney, Kim Campbell, Jean Chretien, Joe Clark), the Governor General of Canada, including  Michaelle Jean and Alberta Premier Allison Redford.

The Signal Loses Town Support

I was all prepared to write about developments in the Senate Expenses Scandal and a couple of other items that I think are emerging political trouble spots – The Rogers takeover of hockey in Canada and the threat to the very existence of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC); the major change in Canada’s foreign policy which places business, rather than diplomacy, as the country’s top foreign relations priority.  These subjects have taken a back seat to some shocking information I received last Thursday – The Town of Smoky Lake will no longer be supporting The Signal newspaper with a subsidy on the subscriptions to each property owner in town.  I’m still trying to sort out some of the facts and what it will means to residents of Smoky Lake.  In the weeks to come I hope to get a handle on the issues and will be reporting my views in future Whispering in the Wind columns.  It is a little early in this political debacle, but let me offer two observations.  The four town councillors made a mistake (apparently the Mayor was not at the meeting to give his guidance).  Second, I think Smoky Lake County should get involved and offer support to the region’s businesses.

The Emperor Has No Clothes

Whispering in the Wind (December 2, 2013) WITW 7

I start this week’s column with the fairy tale “The Emperor Has New Clothes” by Hans Christian Anderson – here’s my take on this famous story.  The fable involves a mythical land and an emperor who prided himself on his fine wearing apparel.  At one point in his reign the emperor wanted to re-enforce his authority so he asked his tailors to make him a new set of clothes that would astound his underlings and impress all under his rule.  In fear of losing their heads, the stumped tailors clad their emperor in “invisible” finery saying to the emperor: only those who are stupid, incompetent, or unfit for office will not see the emperor’s “new” stronger presence in his fine new clothes.  With confidence the emperor proudly went out to his people in his new finery and the crowd was in awe and applauded enthusiastically – only one, a small child innocently cried out: “The Emperor Has No Clothes.”  For me there are political lessons that can be drawn from this fairy tale and they come out in spades when looking at Canada’s current political landscape and three of its most prominent personalities.. 

Prime Minister Steven Harper – The Emperor Has No Clothes

A year ago it was a simple expenses scandal involving three rogue Senators who got greedy and didn’t play the game, the way the game was normally played in the Red Chamber.  Recently the scandal has blossomed into an expose of political intrigue, manipulation and corruption - all apparently engineered out of Prime Minister Harper’s office.  Mr. Harper’s obfuscation in the House of Commons (by not answering straight forward questions) indicates a cover up with the real possibility that Mr. Harper was directly involved in the abuse of power – at the very least.  To me, Mr. Harper has been stripped of most of his defenses and his approval rating has plummeted to an all- time low with a good number of “grassroots” conservatives suggesting that he step down.  From my perspective it is no longer the Senate Expenses Scandal, it has become an Abuse of Power Scandal and I expect the RCMP is strong enough to see it through to the end, for the “Emperor Has No Clothes”. 

Mayor Rob Ford Scandal – The Emperor Has No Clothes

The Rob Ford saga continues and there is no doubt, more revelations are at hand.  Last week a Superior Court justice issued an order that the censored portions of incriminating police documents are to be released, in full, without any blackouts.  As to why the Toronto police have not charged Mayor Ford with known criminal infractions the authorities are mum – my feeling is there are bigger fish to fry so Canadians will have to be patient.  Nevertheless there continues to be some support for the down to earth Rob Ford and his serious addictions and inappropriate actions – actions that have been labeled as “just shenanigans”.  So the saga continues and The Emperor Has No Clothes. 

Premier Pauline Marois – The Emperor Has No Clothes

Quebec’s Premier Pauline Marois has shown herself to be a shrewd strategist when it comes to Quebec politics.  As leader of the Parti Quebecois her ultimate goal is clear, Quebec’s separation from Canada.  To achieve that goal Premier Marois has taken a big, first step toward sovereignty by tabling Quebec’s Charter of Values in the province’s National Assembly.  The unpalatable charter bill has been labeled by one reporter, “PQ’s madness has a method” and the leader of the official opposition in Quebec has called the bill “a frontal assault on our freedoms” and will be challenged in the courts if the charter becomes law.  As surprising as it might be, the defeat of the Charter of Values in Quebec’s National Assembly is likely and just might be exactly what the Parti Quebecois leader wants – Marois heads up a minority government and has stated that a defeat of the charter bill could be treated as a vote of non-confidence – and that means an election.  An election based on the Charter of Values as presented will end being a sovereignty election with extremely dangerous religious, ethnic overtones.  Premier Marois has shown her colors and no matter how it turns out, it’s not good for Canada, it’s not good for Quebec.