Year End Thought - the Canadian Way

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 103) December 23, 2015

For a good number of analysts, 2015 was a year of discussion on the “Big Issues” and the “Big Picture”.  Political pundits have offered their opinions and judgements on what went so terribly wrong in the world, and which politicians are most to fault – no doubt in my mind, the world need fixing.  In Canada, political things are unfolding differently, Canada has a “new” prime minister.  While terrorism, climate change, unemployment and economic instability are of paramount concern to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government, it is the transport and the settling-in of 25,000 Syrian refugees that has captured the hearts and compassion of Canadians generally.  Justin Trudeau and his ministers have had to temper timelines for the welcoming of the Syrian refugees, and the Canadian public has accepted the delays as justified.  As to the other important files on Trudeau’s political agenda, he’s on fire with enthusiasm – with the big question being, can the results of his enthusiasm be realized with increased job creation numbers?

Have a Joyous, Merry Christmas

To the readers of the “Whispering in the Wind” column and to those who offer me their valuable insights and experiences in politics; please accept my thanks and gratitude – without your feedback I don’t think I could continue expressing and defending my opinions – have a good Christmas.    

  

TPP - A March Toward Trouble for Canada

*Whispering in the Wind (WITW 101) December 16, 2015

One of the more controversial topics discussed (debated) during the 78 day federal election campaign was trade and specifically, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.  As it stands, the TPP is an “economic” agreement between 12 Pacific Rim nations that still requires legal review and ratification from individual member-country governments.  From a Canadian perspective, the proposed agreement has a complicating twist – the TPP was negotiated over a seven year period under the supervision of Stephen Harper and his Conservative government.  The TPP is now being reviewed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government for ratification.  The details of the “more than just trade” agreement was agreed to on October 5, 2015 and made public on November 5, 2015.   Mr. Trudeau’s position on the TPP during the election campaign was that he wouldn’t comment on an agreement that he hadn’t seen.  When the agreement was made public (after the election) Prime Minister Trudeau said it would be appropriately analysed and considered by his new government.  It is still under review and rightly so, the consequences for Canada are huge. 

The TPP is a Big Deal!

The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is just one of the latest efforts to offer greater discipline and control over the economic affairs of member states.  The 12 participating states (Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, United States, and Vietnam) have tentatively agreed to an economic agreement that encompasses about 40 percent of the world’s output.  Three other Pacific Rim nations (Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) have expressed interest in joining the partnership and should that occur, over 50 percent of the world’s output will be guided by TPP principles and rules.  Important to point out, United States’ President Barack Obama is the lead advocate of the TPP while China and India are on the side lines watching how the TPP agreement unfolds – the Chinese and Indians have their own plan for how trade and commerce should be conducted in the 21^st century.

What the TPP Offers     

The TPP is a massive 30 chapter agreement encompassing a wide range of elements and conditions.  The aim of the TPP is to offer freer, more disciplined trade in goods and services within the 12 member trading bloc.  At the same time the agreement incorporates measures that will restrict some government policy initiatives and limit national (sub-national) governments from operating in the public’s interest.  In summary, the TPP advances the interests of global corporations and at the same time, restricts governments from acting in the national, public interest when it comes to the environment, technology and investment – and that’s not good news for Canada and Nation Building.

TPP’s Impact on Canada

In the early days, Canadians were viewed as a nation of “hewers of wood and drawers of water” with the nation operating at the behest of the great empires of Europe.  Today, things are different and an independent Canada is exporting much more than just lumber, fish and beaver pelts.  The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is just one example of how nations like Canada are reacting to a drastically changing, globalized framework.  Following are a few points Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might consider prior to offering the TPP agreement to Canada’s parliament for ratification:

1.    Canada has trade treaties with four of the larger members of the TPP (Peru, Chili, United States and Mexico) where tariffs are already low and a dispute settlement procedure in place that is functioning.  For the other seven TPP members, Canada is running a trade deficit of $5-8 billion annually – Canada is buying more than we are selling.  80 percent of Canada’s exports to these seven countries are raw or semi-processed goods (beef, coal, lumber), while 80 percent of Canada’s imports are high value-added goods (autos, machinery, computer, electronic components).  Analysts have suggested that the impact of the TPP on Canada’s overall economy will be minimal in terms of GNP growth, but most likely will further erode Canada’s manufacturing sector. 

2.   A good number of the rules embedded in the TPP agreement appear to be modeled after existing United States trade law and that could mean trouble for Canada.  One element embedded in the technology chapter of the TPP is healthcare and drugs which could prove to be a disaster for Canada and its efforts to control healthcare and pharmaceutical drug costs.

3.   Possibly the most controversial issue facing Prime Minister Trudeau and Canada’s participation in the TPP will be the environmental component of the TPP and how it might be “re-drafted” – a result of the Climate Change Conference and the goals set last week in Paris.  How the 12 member states re-state their environmental goals and specific targets on greenhouse gas emissions is without doubt going to be intense and lengthy process.  For Canada, Prime Minister Trudeau has promised to meet with Canadian Premiers within 90 days to start the discussion on setting emission targets and how to achieve them – it will take time.  Does it mean that ratification of the TPP will be held up – probably?  Does it mean opening up further negotiations on other aspects of the TPP – an open question? 

Overall, the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement is likely to be held in limbo for some time, possibly years – and that’s good news for Canada.  As the country awaits Mr. Trudeau’s assessment of the TPP, the haunting, historical statement remains; will Canada return to be simply “hewers of wood and drawers of water”?

The World - Going to Hell in a Handbasket?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 102) December 9, 2015

A few weeks ago I got a message from a well-informed reader who mused about the world’s political landscape, he observed “…how much the world has changed in the last 50 years….not sure if it’s because we have instant reports from around the globe or if it’s actually going down the drain…either way, it can be tough remaining optimistic.”  While I whole heartedly agree with the reader’s observations, my views go a step further and are much more ominous of what is likely to be if reasons aren’t determined and solutions not found.

As to the reasons for the present struggles, wars and general mayhem there is little doubt in my mind, there are five realities that are quite evident today and didn’t exist 50 years ago, realities that must be addressed in very short order:

1.   The war against ISIS in the middle-east must be upgraded, if for no other reason, to contain the spread of ISIS as an Islamic State.  Canada’s decision to withdraw its fighter jets from the war zone is a mistake that must be compensated for by offering much more support to US led coalition forces.

2.   The war against domestic terrorism must be upgraded to include   Muslim community efforts to eliminate radicalization measures.  Canada’s Security Measures Act (C-51) must be used with determination and close supervision by parliament.

3.   Individual rights and freedoms opposite a citizen’s obligation to the state must be clearly defined with parameters and well clearly promulgated to the nation.  Hate speech and the promotion of hate speech should be considered an indictable offence.

4.   Nation building initiatives are sorely lacking in Canada.  To build a nation that is more secure and sustainable opposite selling off assets to other nations, or allowing other nations to invest in Canada on their terms is unacceptable.  Clearly define what it means to be a Canadian.  Review the Trans Partnership (TPP) agreement and determine what is best for Canada in light of some very dangerous economic forces and trends.

5.    Climate change measures being formulated and agreed to internationally must be agreed to domestically as well.  The standards set over the next while should be incorporated into any and all past, present, future agreements.  The Trans Pacific Partnership agreement should incorporate the “wished for targets” set at the Paris Climate Change Conference, and that means opening up the TPP for further negotiations. 

Trudeau, Off to a Running Start

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 100) December 2, 2015

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s agenda for Canada is not only very long, it is very complex and touches on some of the basics of governance.  During the election campaign Mr. Trudeau promised big change as to how the country would be governed and committing to something like 171 promises if he and his Liberal party were to be elected as government.  October 19 saw Justin Trudeau winning 184 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons, thus forming a majority government – two weeks later he announced a smaller cabinet with 15 women members (fulfilling at least two of his promises).  Another promise made was to bring 25,000 Syrian refugees into Canada by the end of 2015 – the scheduling has been re-vamped; 10,000 Syrian refugees by the end of December and a further 15,000 by the end of February, 2016.   Regarding the new government’s commitment on “climate change” targets, the new prime minister has let it be known to Canadians and the international community that the green- house gas emission targets, as set by the previous government are to be the starting point and more ambitious targets will be set in cooperation with his provincial counterparts.  Not to be forgotten are the tax measures Mr. Trudeau promised to the middle class and the wealthiest Canadians – and that means immediate changes to the tax code are necessary, if the tax breaks (or hits) are to be in effect for the 2016 taxation year.  To deal with the taxation issue and to give Canadians a better feel for what is to come in the next year or so, Canada’s Parliament will convene on December 3^rd, starting with the Speech from the Throne.  Overall Mr. Trudeau has demonstrated that he is off to a running start and has shown, at least domestically, that he intends to follow-up on his 171 commitments, but only after due, responsible consideration.  Internationally, I think it is a different story – primarily because of Mr. Trudeau’s decision to withdraw Canada’s fighter jet support from the US led coalition and the war against ISIS.  In my view, Mr. Trudeau misjudged the situation in the middle- east and the coalition’s strategy to wipe out the ISIS base of operations in Iraq and Syria – and there no doubt in my mind, there are consequences when a country breaks rank with a coalition.