Dealing With Terrorism - the Canadian Experience

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 99) November 25, 2015

Democratic governments around the world are on high alert in their battle against the murderous, seemingly haphazard actions of extremist Islamic groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda.  The most recent example of indiscriminate carnage occurred a week ago at a luxury hotel in the African state of Mali – killed 19 – Al-Qaeda and two other groups are claiming responsibility.  But it was the ISIS attacks in Paris two weeks ago that sparked a more heighten level of anxiety and concern amongst urban populations in Europe and elsewhere – many are now thinking and saying:  if it can happen in Paris, it can happen anywhere.  For the French government (and for other governments as well), the question has become:  what tools are required and necessary to counter terrorism threats and actions?  President Francois Hollande of France has voiced some of his views and ideas, ideas that seem to link to Canada’s experience with ISIS style terrorism.

Canada’s Experience 

Not to be forgotten in any discussion on what to do in the fight against terrorism is Canada’s experience – the murder of Cpl. Nathan Cirillo and attack on Canada’s Parliament Hill thirteen months ago.  And just a few months later, the government (of the day) passed its Anti-Terrorism Act (C-51).  While C-51 enhances the powers of police and investigative authorities (as it should) the Act does not allow for any kind of parliamentary, bi-partisan oversight in the operations of the security authorities involved.  Nor does the law (as it exists) retain the sanctity of being a Canadian and having Canadian citizenship.  Fortunately the “new” government in Ottawa is reviewing the law and has promised to delete the elements related to citizenship and add elements to have appropriate, bi-partisan oversight.  The person in charge of this monumental task is the seasoned, well respected Minister of Public Safety, Ralph Goodale.  Mr. Goodale will have to clearly define freedom of expression and conduct versus an individual’s responsibility to Canada, as a citizen.  While Mr. Goodale’s immediate focus is on the terrorism threats being promoted by groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, there is the disturbing reality of home-grown terrorism and not to be forgotten, other special interest groups that use more militant actions to achieve their objectives – Mr. Goodale is walking a very fine line in his most pressing responsibility; achieving homeland security.

A Final Thought

In a recent Canadian television program on terrorism, the assembled panel of experts (military and academic) concluded that the best way to deal with the existing scourge is by assembling the best, most reliable INFORMATION possible and then acting quickly, no holds barred.      

ISIS Attacks on Paris, A Game Changer

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 98) November 18, 2015

Around the world, terrorist activity seems to be occurring at an accelerated rate.  In the last three weeks alone there have been at least four horrific events which have been coordinated by evil workings of the ISIS movement.  World leaders are rightly describing these activities as; threatening, outrageous and inhumane – and something must be done in haste. 

-      October 31, 2015 – A Russian aircraft flying from Egypt to St. Petersburg, Russia, exploded in mid-air killing all 224 persons on board.  A militant group claims responsibility for the explosion and claims ISIS affiliation.   

-      November 9/10, 2015 – Seven beheaded bodies (4 men, 2 women, one child) is dumped in Zabul province, Afghanistan.  Some government officials blame ISIS for the atrocious act, others label the Taliban movement as responsible – worthy to note, ISIS has made major inroads into Afghanistan over the past year by attracting support from disenchanted members of the Taliban movement.

-      November 12, 2015 – Two explosions in Beirut, Lebanon killed 43 people, wounding 239 others.  An explosive-laden motorcycle was detonated first, followed by a suicide bomber wearing a vest of explosives – apparently there was a second suicide bomber who was killed by one of the two explosions.  ISIS claims responsibility for the explosions.     

-      November 13, 2015 – The ISIS coordinated attacks in Paris last Friday caused the death of 129 people, with 352 wounded (including 99 in critical condition).  The carnage in Paris took place in six different locations involving 3 ISIS commando units.  The reaction from the French government has been swift and without compromise.  President Francois Hollande (representing political views on the right of France’s political spectrum) has asked the United States and Russia to set aside their differences and fight with others to eliminate the scourge of ISIS terrorism – an excellent point, if it can be done?  President Hollande also wants to increase French fighting power against ISIS in the Syrian-Iraq war zone, maintain emergency measures within France, re-open the country’s constitution to limit travel within the European Union and allow the French government to withdraw French citizenship from suspected French terrorists.    

Some Final Thoughts – For the Time Being!

The horrific attacks in Paris last week represents something very telling in geo-political terms and must be studied carefully by western governments.  A number of well-informed observers indicate that ISIS’s strategy is shifting away from establishing an Islamic State (in Iraq and Syria) to creating fear and havoc within “western” states and their capitals.  ISIS picked Paris as its first target to create fear and chaos, all to cover up their short comings in its traditional military war zone.  From what is written, ISIS is losing major battles in the Syrian-Iraq war zone, largely because of Russia’s entry into the mix. 

As to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s performance on the international stage in the past week or so, it is unfortunate that he is still acting and talking like he is still on the campaign trail.  Being Prime Minister of Canada means you have to adjust to new, changing conditions and the attacks in Paris is a game changer – and that means keeping ones options open and available.  The attacks in Paris have definitely changed geo-political thinking in Europe, Asia and North America – and now Russia has changed its position on Syria and become a significant player in the world’s fight against terrorism.  Another more domestic point about Mr. Trudeau’s performance as he travels from Turkey to the Philippines – has the prime minister’s promise to ‘rule by Cabinet’ been temporarily set to one side as he deals with international matters?  As to the prime minister’s fixed views on withdrawing fighter jets from the Iraq-Syria war zone, I agree with Canada’s stance but Canada has to offer something more than just enhanced training, if Canada is to remain a relevant player in the war against terrorism.  On the matter of bringing in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the year’s end, Mr. Trudeau (and his Cabinet) will have to change the timing and security screening agenda.  Otherwise, the prime minister is going to run into major problems with the provinces – and remember, the petitions have already started. 

Trudeau's Work Schedule - Unbelievable

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 97) November 11, 2015

A Final Word, the Trudeau Landslide

Canadians continue to be in awe of the October 19 election results and the dramatic change that occurred.  Political pundits and pollsters have analyzed the election data and have drawn some interesting conclusions that might be a surprise to some who are convinced that the election was only about getting rid of Stephen Harper.  Actually Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party were able to retain much of their conservative support.  It was the increased voter turnout that did the Conservatives in – in the 2011 election voter turnout was at 61.1 percent. In the 2015 election the turnout was 68.5 percent – the 7 percent increase in voter turnout was by-in-large anti-Harper, anti-Conservative.  As to the demise of Thomas Mulcair and the NDP, it was all about the niqab issue in Quebec.  According to pollsters there was a 10 percent shift in voter preference away from the NDP.  The NDP ended up losing 45 seats in Quebec with the Liberals gaining 32 seats.  As to Mr. Trudeau’s success, I am convinced that Mr. Trudeau was able to maintain a positive, up-beat, consensus-building image throughout the campaign, while his opponents projected fear, hesitation and caution.  In the end, Mr. Trudeau’s approach motivated about seven percent of the population (who didn’t vote in the 2011 election), to vote.

Trudeau’s Way Forward         

In the aftermath of the October 19th election, Prime Minister Trudeau is seriously trying to present a government that is more transparent and accountable.  Mr. Trudeau’s list of promises is long and ambitious but he has already shown that he is willing to take risks (i.e. his Cabinet appointments).  As to the prime minister’s adventures on the international front, his four meetings scheduled will be both revealing and telling on what’s in store for Canada under a Trudeau administration.   And to top it all up, Canada’s 42^nd Parliament will resume sitting on December 3 with the Governor General reading the Speech from the Throne on December 4.   

Justin Trudeau Announces His Cabinet

November 4th saw Justin Trudeau sworn in as Canada’s 23^rd prime minister and a new government structure with a 30 member Cabinet.  Aside from the normal juggling of bureaucratic responsibilities because there are fewer ministries, Mr. Trudeau established something that could haunt him in the future appointments – the 50 percent male / female quota system.  While it is commendable to have a goal of gender parity, there is a question of having a merit based Cabinet?  When questioned about his decision, Mr. Trudeau glibly responded with “Because it’s 2015”.  My advice to Mr. Trudeau, stop the terse rhetoric and explain your position. 

Mr. Trudeau’s Debut on the World Stage        

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is confident that he has a clear and convincing mandate to change how government business is done in Ottawa and the rest of Canada.  In the next month, Mr. Trudeau will be on the “big” stage meeting the “big” players of the world.  Mr. Trudeau’s international agenda is unfolding very quickly, is it too much for the “new” prime minister?

November 15-16, 2015 – the G20 Summit Conference in Antalya, Turkey; likely topics on the agenda: trade and finance; refugee crisis; climate change.              

November 16-18, 2015 – Mr. Trudeau flies immediately to the Philippines for the Asia- Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) Summit, Manila, Philippines.  Likely topics on the agenda:  trade and finance; the Trans-Pacific Partnership; climate change.

November 27-29, 2015 – Commonwealth Summit in Fort St. Angelo, Malta, likely topics on the agenda:  climate change; trade and finance; refugee crisis.   (Queen Elizabeth II, Duke of Edinburgh, Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall are expected to attend).

November 30-December 11, 2015 – United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, France – apparently Mr. Trudeau will only attend part of the conference.

The Trudeau Government: A Daunting Adventure

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 96) November 4, 2015

A good number of Canadians continue to bask in the “sunny ways” of Trudeau mania and the Liberal Party’s successes on October 19 – and a decisive win it was.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet are now facing a four year agenda that is to reflect real change from what was.  At the same time, the Conservative Party of Canada is mired in its own reality; Stephen Harper is no longer at the helm of the “ship of state” – something he, himself created.  What’s so devastating about the Conservative Party, it’s fractured.  There are two distinct groups, some infighting (the Red Tories versus the Blue Tories) with each group having a different view on governance, management and strategy.  And the question for conservatives in Canada: Is there anybody strong enough to mend a torn party, or is it just a failed experiment? 

Justin Trudeau Needs to Set His Priorities, With Some Haste

Over the course of the lengthy 78 day federal election campaign, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau offered something like 171 commitments (promises) to the people of Canada, if he was to form a Liberal government.  Well, the unlikely happened and Justin Trudeau is now Canada’s prime minister with a “majority” government.  As to whether Prime Minister Trudeau and his government can accomplished what was promised within a four year timeframe, only time will tell?  As to Mr. Trudeau’s responses to immediate circumstances and situations, he has not hesitated to act.  Mr. Trudeau has already notified Barack Obama that Canada’s direct military actions in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) using fighter jets will cease – and Canadian training efforts in the waring zones will increase.  Mr. Trudeau’s commitment to make Canada home to 25,000 Syrian refugees by Christmas has not changed since the election, even though Canadian hosting organizations and agencies feel there should be a delay.  Mr. Trudeau has invited the provincial premiers (and leaders of the federal opposition parties) to participate in the upcoming environmental conference in Paris, France.  The invitations are an effort to make federal governance more transparent, inclusive and more responsive to other ideas and other governments – Mr. Trudeau is trying to develop some sort of consensus on setting environmental targets?  As to economic / financial / budget matters, Canadians most likely will have to wait until January or February of next year for the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne.  As to keeping Canadians informed, Prime Minister Trudeau could assemble a First Minister’s Conference on the State of the Canadian Union in early December – that would keep Canadians informed as to what is to come and more comfortable with Trudeau’s new approach to governance.

A Footnote

I present this article for publication 24 hours prior to Mr. Trudeau being sworn in as Prime Minister of Canada and the announcement of who is in the Trudeau cabinet.  Speculation is that Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet will be smaller than what has existed in the past and the cabinet will have equal numbers in terms of males and females.  While gender is a criteria in filling any vacancy or post (along with ethnic and regional diversity), it is important for Mr. Trudeau to keep in mind that experience and capacity to deal with issues related to a specific portfolio are equally, if not the most important criteria when judging who sits where.