Canada's Political Landscape: Who's in Charge of What?

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 95) October 28, 2015

While Justin Trudeau basks in the glory of an election win his two main adversaries are licking their wounds (and egos) – both questioning how they allowed the Liberal upstart to move from a third place standing, at the beginning of the campaign, to win a Liberal, “majority” government.  Thomas Mulcair seems to have taken the high road saying in his concession speech:  “Canadians have asked us all to work for them.  We will not let them down.”  Mr. Mulcair’s remarks suggest that he will likely continue to lead the NDP for at least the next year or two, if only to see how the Liberal leader stacks up to his 171 promises.  If Mr. Mulcair is to survive, he will have to tone down his angry rhetoric and prove that his view of “leftist” politics is unique to that of the Liberal view – at the same time, paying particular attention to what is best for the people of Quebec.  As to Stephen Harper’s views on his party’s election losses, he offered to his electoral base:  “While tonight’s result is certainly not the one we had hoped for, the people are never wrong … Know also this as well, the disappointment you also feel is my responsibility and mine alone.”  It is understandable that Mr. Harper was disappointed, even devastated by the election results but I am confused as to why he left it up to the party organization to announce his resignation as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.  It might be an ego thing and he just didn’t want to face reporters with numerous questions about his election loss but I am more suspicious – something more serious is afoot within the Conservative Party itself.  Mr. Harper’s decision to resign as party leader and stick around as a Member of Parliament will have some interesting and revealing consequences.  In the meantime Conservatives will be selecting an “interim” leader (at least three are in contention) and scheduling a “permanent” leadership selection process (that will take at least a year or two) – so who is going to be pulling the strings of power within the Conservative Party of Canada, a party that is obviously fractured?

Remembering October 22, 2014

It is almost exactly a year since Canadians experienced the appalling act of “domestic” terrorism on Parliament Hill – the shooting of unarmed honor guard Corporal Nathan Cirillo at Canada’s National War Memorial in Ottawa.  The event shocked the confidence of many Canadians and eventually allowed the prime minister of the day to pass legislation (C-51).  The legislation allowed for increased/expanded security measures to fight terrorism activity both within Canada and elsewhere.  Liberal leader Justin Trudeau supported the government’s anti-terrorism measures because of immediate circumstances, but also said that if he was elected prime minister, he would amend the legislation to protect certain freedoms of Canadians.  As well Trudeau recommended that the government study the “root causes” of home grown terrorism – Stephen Harper pooh-poohed Mr. Trudeau’s idea, suggesting that such studies were just academic pursuits – a few weeks later, the Harper government initiated studies on the causes of terrorism.  While political circumstances have dramatically changed since the death of Corporal Cirillo the question remains, how can a country like Canada deal with terrorism threats and retain freedom of dissent?  How prime minister-elect Justin Trudeau deals with the treats of terrorism, conflict and dissension will be one of the top issues the new Liberal government will have to address – and it’s not going to be easy task.  My thought on what has to be his first step; Mr. Trudeau will have to clearly distinguish between the rights and freedoms of individual Canadians and the individual’s responsibility to respect / follow the standards set by Canada’s society and its constitution.    

A Justin Trudeau Landslide

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 94) October 21, 2015

The votes have been counted and in the good old fashioned Canadian tradition, the results and impacts are uncertain:

                                                 Voter Support                          Seats                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Canada                       Canada  Alberta

Conservative Party                         32%                                  99        29

New Democratic Party                   19%                                  44          1

Liberal Party                                    40%                               184          4

Green Party                                       3%                                   1         - -

Bloc Quebecois                                5%                                 10         - -

Other                                                 - -%                                  - -         - -

The Leaders – What Went Right, What Went Wrong?

October 19’s general election is now a part of Canadian history and for the major players, it was a shocker.  For Justin Trudeau there was total elation – not only did he win an election using a much more confident, positive campaign strategy (something the general public desperately needed), he is now prime minister-elect with a “majority” Liberal government.  For Stephen Harper there was disappointment and embarrassment – the Harper Way of governing was rebuffed by a good portion of the country’s electorate.  After a respectful concession speech, Mr. Harper later admitted his failure and said he would resign as party leader.  When the incumbent prime minister realized that his fear and division strategy wasn’t working in the minds of the electorate, he got confused and then desperate in his tactical decisions (e.g. matching up with the Ford bros two days before the election).  Thomas Mulcair proved himself as a very principled leader of the Official Opposition and demonstrated it well in his confrontations with Stephen Harper in the House of Commons on the Mike Duffy scandal.  At the end of August (still early in the election campaign) Mr. Mulcair and the NDP had a 40 percent approval rating from the Canadian electorate, well above his rivals.  Nevertheless, Mr. Mulcair’s more confrontational tone (something that might work in a courtroom or the House of Commons) was what did him in with the general public, particularly in the province of Quebec.  How Mr. Mulcair handled the niqab issue was his “poisoned pill” in the province of Quebec – what was such a disaster for Mr. Mulcair ended up to be of great benefit for  Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois.  Gilles Duceppe more than doubled his party’s presence in the new House of Commons.  As to Elizabeth May and her single seat win on Vancouver Island there was disappointment for the Greens and the environmental movement in Canada.  Nevertheless, Elizabeth May should not be counted out of the political picture when it comes to being more involved with developing Canadian environmental policy – that is, if the new Liberal prime minister lives up to his campaign words of being more inclusive.

Harper’s Defeat   

Stephen Harper’s decision to step aside as leader of “his” Conservative Party of Canada is going to have a profound effect on the future of the conservative movement in Canada.  For Mr. Harper the results of the October 19 election were disappointing.  My assessment, Mr. Harper was not able to coalesce the “Red” Tories in eastern Canada with his “Blue” Tory base on the prairies.  Now that Mr. Harper has stepped aside, does it mean that the fusion of the Alliance-Reform movement with the long standing Progressive Conservative Party in December of 2003 was/is a failed experiment – made more complicated by Mr. Harper’s more aggressive, controlling management style?  No doubt in my mind, the Conservative Party of Canada is in turmoil and now that Mr. Harper is moving on, who will be going to replace him?      

The Demise of Stephen Harper

Whisper in the Wind (WITW 93) October 14, 2015

This is my last “kick at the cat” when it comes to the October 19 election, so if you’re on the wrong side of what is to come, read and weep. 

The Polls

Public opinion polls are indicating that the three major parties and their leaders are not admitting defeat when it comes to support from the Canadian electorate.  The latest polls are showing Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 34.2 percent support, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 31.7 percent and Thomas Mulcair’s NDP at 23.4 percent.  Public support appears to be swinging toward Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, all at the expense of both the NDP and the Conservatives.  Another poll taken a while back by the Ipsos Reid organization indicated that 70 percent of the Canadian electorate want a change of direction in Ottawa – suggesting that the three way political log-jam of confusion has been around for some time.  Said another way and voiced by the former premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams:  “Anything But Conservative”. 

All is Not Well in the Conservative Camp 

While the Ipsos Reid poll suggests 70 percent of Canada’s population is dissatisfied with Mr. Harper’s government, there is indication that there is some softening of support within the rank and file of the conservative movement itself.  Amongst the conservative elite, the feelings are all about Mr. Harper and his style of governance, the feeling is mixed.  Former Prime Minister Joe Clark is quite critical of Mr. Harper and his governance style; including his approach to foreign affairs matters and specifically his dealing in Ukraine.  Mr. Clark also questions Mr. Harper’s approach to the Senate expenses scandal and the Duffy trial.  The former Progressive Conservative prime minister recommends that Mr. Harper “bring people into the facts … {Stephen Harper] needs to tell the real story and he needs to seek some advice as to what’s the most effective way to do that”.  Brian Mulroney, another former conservative prime minister chastised Stephen Harper for his spats with the Supreme Court of Canada; his negative attitude toward the United Nations and his un-relationship with the United States’ president, Barack Obama.  An even more caustic rebuke of Stephen Harper was spewed out by former Progressive Conservative premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams.  In a recent interview Mr. Williams observed that Stephen Harper can’t be trusted:  “Over time we have seen this man cannot be trusted.  He had no integrity.  He’s trying to stifle democracy.  There is no end to what he’s doing.”  Danny Williams ended up saying  “He’s a lousy prime minister who’s divisive.”  To balance the stark rebukes of the more progressive conservative right thinkers, Preston Manning (the guru of the Reform Party and thought to be Stephen Harper’s mentor) has very strong reservations about Mr. Harper’s management style (ruthless) and strongly disagrees with some of his legislation (the Fair Elections Act).  As to whether any of these disagreements and hostile voices are pervasive within the general conservative movement,  and whether these elitist voices are going to impact the voting intentions amongst the rank and file in the Conservative Party on Election Day, only time will tell? I hope it will, so let me add My Perspective .  As a somewhat disillusioned conservative, let me make three points which I feel should be considered when deciding who to vote for on October 19.  First, Mr. Harper has in the past 10 years become a “one man party” and that in itself is a very dangerous situation in Canada – for a single individual to wield so much unbridled control and power in a democracy like Canada is simply unacceptable.  Second, Mr. Harper is a laissez-fairest (an individual who feels that the economy should be in the hands of the corporate, business world with little or no interference from government).  Third, Mr. Harper’s disrespect for Canada’s parliamentary system and its institutions (Supreme Court of Canada, the Canadian Senate, et al) is, in my mind a threat to how Canadians will be governed in the future.      

Justin Trudeau; on a Roll, will it Last?

Justin Trudeau is on a roll and his successes should not be discounted – after all is said and done, it’s possible Mr. Trudeau could be Canada’s 23rd prime minister.  Polls are indicating that Mr. Trudeau has a 34.3 approval rating amongst the Canadian electorate and his status appears to be growing.  If the up-starts momentum continues he could become Canada’s next prime minister with a “majority” Liberal government.  What is phenomenal about Trudeau’s success is that he has moved from a dismal third place at the beginning of the campaign, to the public’s top choice six days from October 19 election.  In the leadership debates that I saw Mr. Trudeau was articulate about his positions and was aggressive enough (some have called him testy) to put his opponents on edge – proving that he could stand up to the more seasoned Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair.  While the re-election strategy for Mr. Harper was to promote fear (if he weren’t to be re-elected) and Mr. Mulcair, lashing out with anger and hostility whenever his opponents promoted anything; Justin Trudeau’s strategy was to be pragmatic, realistic and positive.  Mr. Trudeau’s basic stance on the Canadian economy was sputtering (denied by Harper) and the public’s intense interest in jobs and security of their particular work environment played out well for the Liberals.  Mr. Trudeau’s solution to the present economic woes of Canada caused him to put forward a massive infrastructure program that will be paid for after the economy starts to move in the right direction – a slam-dunk for Justin Trudeau and accepted by many voters across the country – it was also a positive, confidence builder in an uncertain, apprehensive population.  There are two other actions taken by Justin Trudeau worth mentioning which clearly demonstrates Trudeau’s personal approach to parliamentary democracy.  Last year at the height of the Senate expenses scandal Mr. Trudeau abruptly removed the Liberal members of the Senate from his parliamentary caucus and declared the labelled Liberal Senators Independent.  While this action is not a solution to the many Senate issues and problems, it is the beginning of a solution and should not be ignored.  Another classy move made by Justin Trudeau deals with the European Refugee Crisis.  In the House of Commons debate on the crisis, Mr. Trudeau suggested a meeting of party leaders to address Canada’s role in the crisis and how to speed up the refugee application process, giving due attention to security – Trudeau’s recommendation was rejected.  While Mr. Trudeau has proven himself to be a strong contender for the country’s top political job and he is fortunate to have a strong, experienced Liberal organization backing him up. Nevertheless there is still 6 days of campaigning to go – I sincerely hope he doesn’t stumble.              

Tom Mulcair is Stumbling, Can He Recover?

Last week in this column I identified Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair as three mythological titans battling it out with spears of political accusations and personal condemnations.  Mr. Mulcair proved himself to be an outstanding warrior when he battled against Stephen Harper in the House of Commons on the Senate Expenses Scandal and the Mike Duffy Affair.  Unfortunately something happened to the Mulcair campaign on the ground, in the trenches (particularly in Quebec) that is causing his poll numbers to plummet into the 20s – that’s not good news for the Mr. Mulcair / NDP campaign.  In the 2011 election the NDP won 59 seats in Quebec and consolidated their Official Opposition status in Ottawa.  The current polls are indicating that the NDP are strong in 42 ridings – it is no wonder that the Conservatives and Liberals in Quebec are like vultures purporting to be the best choice in next Monday’s election.  Another important factor comes into play and possibly is the answer to the NDP declines.   A month ago when the Conservatives, NDP, Liberals were tied in the polls a glib observation was made, the NDP and the Liberals were fighting over who would end up in second place.  Maybe the public have made up their minds and are swinging toward the Liberals.  In Quebec there are other complicating factors that are impacting voter preference.  In rural Quebec the Niqab issue remains an issue and Mr. Mulcair hasn’t been able to finesse the issue, so the NDP leader responded by saying Mr. Harper is playing the race card – that might be the case but the Niqab issue resonated differently in rural Quebec and Mr. Mulcair didn’t see the difference?  The Bloc Quebecois is another wild card in Quebec politics but it appears that the party and its leader Gilles Duceppe will have minimal impact on the final results – winning 3 or 4 seats in the House of Commons.  Fortunately for Mr. Mulcair, it appears that his difficulties in Quebec are not dramatically affecting his support in other parts of the country.

A Final Thought on Leadership

While the battle between Harper, Mulcair and Trudeau will be settled in a few short days with the result being significant, if not “earth shaking” for Canada.  What has been lost in the kerfuffle is the sane, sagged views of Elizabeth May and the Green Party of Canada.  Her limited participation in the debates and her strenuous efforts should not be discounted.  In the end, she will make a difference in tomorrow’s political environment.     

Stephen Harper's Battle Isn't Over

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 92) October 7, 2015

In less than two weeks Canadians will be going to the polls and choosing which party and which leader is going to rule the country for the next four years.  At this point in time it is fair to say that Stephen Harper of the Conservatives, Thomas Mulcair of the NDP and Justin Trudeau of the Liberals are in a dead heat when it comes to capturing the hearts, minds and votes of the Canadian electorate.  What follows are some of my impressions and thoughts on what is going on in the Stephen Harper campaign and the reader should be cautioned, beware of my biases.   

The 2015 Election Campaign:  A Battle of the Titans

The 2015 election campaign has become a battle between three sword wielding titans, each having different, if not questionable qualifications to lead a pluralistic nation like Canada.  The promises being made in this campaign and the history each leader brings to the election table are being used like spears to put fear in the minds of the Canadian electorate should the wrong leader be chosen. 

Stephen Harper:  Stumbling But Definitely Not Out of the Picture

Stephen Harper has been prime minister of Canada for 10 years so there is no denying that he has experience in being Canada’s top politician.  Nevertheless, for me and many others:  has the 10 year rule under Mr. Harper made Canadians better off and has Canada become a more secure, sustainable nation in light of the global upheavals?  According to some opinion polls up to 70 percent of the population is dissatisfied and want political change in Canada.  In other polls, up to 60 percent of the electorate prefer either Thomas Mulcair or Justin Trudeau over Stephen Harper as Canada’s next prime minister.  Mr. Harper’s capacity to lead Canada for another four year term is partly based on how his past record plays out in the next 10 days.  From my perspective there are five topics resonating with the public that could very well determine whether Mr. Harper and the Conservatives get re-elected as government.                                                                                                 The Senate Expenses Scandal and the Mike Duffy Trial is playing out like last year’s blockbuster movie – exciting when it was playing but other priorities have taken over.  I still feel the issues of cover up transparency and accountability are lingering in the minds of the public when it comes to the Duffy fiasco and the public wants to know Mr. Harper’s specific role in the Senate scandal and the role of his gang at the PMO in the matter.  In my view, the Duffy Trial will resonate with the public on Election Day and is the prime reason for the 70 percent polling number which asks for political change in Ottawa.                                                                                     The European Refugee Crisis and Mr. Harper’s resistance to act immediately and humanely will have a negative impact on the “soft” support for the Conservatives, particularly with immigrant Canadians.  The Harper government’s minimal response to the refugee crisis in Europe also suggests a level of arrogance on the part of Mr. Harper and unbecoming a Canadian prime minister.                                                                                              Developing any sort of realistic Energy and Environmental Policy for Mr. Harper has taken a back seat to the feeling of remorse.  And it all relates to his inability to get approval from President Obama for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, the collapse of international oil prices and of course, Rachel Notley’s NDP win in Alberta.  My view, should Mr. Harper’s Conservatives win the most seats in the October 19 election will be to prepare for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (November 30 – December 11) – he might be too embarrassed to even attend?                                                                                                      Economy and Trade Policy has become the center piece of Mr. Harper’s bid for re-election and his wish for another majority.  As to the numbers used to describe his economic accomplishments, Mr. Harper used some accounting magic to claim a balanced budget for government operations and continues to opine that the economy was growing, without mentioning that the country was in a technical recession.  The real number to watch out for is Canada’s unemployment rate for September (to be released on October 9). Should the rate climb above 7 percent I think Mr. Harper’s opponents will have a field day claiming that Harper’s job creation record is outrageous and his performance as an economic manager, dismal.  Another important unemployment rate figure to watch is the youth unemployment rate (presently at 13.1 percent) and if it goes up it could be another signal that the Harper government’s job creation program isn’t working and could spur the youth to get out and vote – not good news for the Harper government.                                                                                    The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) framework agreement came just at the right time for Mr. Harper in his re-election bid.  While trade is the lifeblood of the Canadian economy and negotiating good trade agreements are the necessary tools to advance Canada’s prosperity there are always concerns and pitfalls – and the devil is in the details.  I will have a lot more to say about the TPP in next week’s column but for the moment I can only say that the TPP announcement is a boost for Mr. Harper’s chances on October 19.