The Canadian Senate - A Tangled Web

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 89) August 26, 2015

Sir Walter Scott wrote some 200 years ago:  “Oh what a tangled web we weave when we first practice to deceive.”  Does this statement describe what’s going on in politics today with the Mike Duffy trial and Stephen Harper’s decision to have a lengthier election campaign? 

Senate of Canada – Needs Fixing and an Overhaul

The Senate has been around since Confederation has a very clear role: to give regional balance to Canada’s parliamentary system and offer sober, second thought to proposed legislation.  Mr. Harper’s effort to reform the Senate appointment process (appoint only “elected” senators) proved to be unacceptable to some provinces and the result, the Senate remain unchanged.  Historically the Senate has been a haven for political favorites.  More recently, the Senate’s business appears to be less independent and at the beck and call of the ruling prime minister.  As a result, the “Red Chamber” has become less independent and simply an extension of the Prime Minister’s Office (the PMO) – sober second thought has become irrelevant.  The Mike Duffy appointment in 2008 was clearly an appointment motivated by a single, narrow political objective – fundraising for the Conservative Party of Canada.  As to implementing measures to reform the structure and conduct of Canada’s Senate, it has become an election issue.  Liberal leader Justin Trudeau declared Liberal Senators, Independent of the Liberal caucus and suggested that a non-partisan process in appointing future senators, if he is elected prime minister.  The New Democrat leader, Thomas Mulcair advocates the abolishment the Senate, a virtually impossible stance if one sticks to Canada’s form of parliamentary governance.  Stephen Harper is awaiting the provinces to respond to his longstanding position of having an “elected” Senate.  In the meantime Mr. Harper is on the campaign trail hoping that that the Mike Duffy scandal and the court case attached to his former “poster boy” will somehow be forgotten in the next few weeks and well before Election Day. 

The Duffy Trial – Unconscionable!

Nightly news broadcasts, have given Canadians the opportunity to hear all about the inner workings of Prime Minister Harper’s Office and how political power is being exercised, the Harper Way.  As to whether the Duffy Trial exposes will have an impact on October 19 election is still an open question, largely because the legal judgement on the 31 charges against Mike Duffy won’t be made until 2016, well after the October 19 election.  As a result, two questions are being asked by pundits like me:  How will the opposition parties handle the information and testimony already presented under oath? And secondly, what will resonate with the Canadian electorate on October 19, Election Day?  As it currently stands and as I’ve already written, members of Mr. Harper’s Office have already been inconsistent in their statements and have presented contradictory testimony – so somebody is lying!  As to Mr. Harper’s consistent statement, that he was not aware of Nigel Wright’s actions (his personal cheque to Duffy for $90,000) and when he became aware, he took appropriate action – incredulous assertions!  Thomas Mulcair wrote to the RCMP a week or so back suggesting that new information and how Mr. Wright answered questions put to him at the Duffy Trial should prompt authorities to review their decision made months ago about Mr. Wright’s culpability.  Mr. Trudeau of the Liberals has suggested that those responsible in the PMO for the interference in Senate affairs should be dismissed.  No doubt in my mind, the political actions and apparent inconsistencies being undertaken by staff member of the PMO must be exposed prior to Election Day. 

Back to Scott

Sir Walter Scott wrote some 200 years ago:  “Oh what a tangled web we weave when we first practice to deceive.”  In Canada, in today’s election environment, how many conspiracies are there and who are the true conspirators? 

The National Election Campaign - Uncertain and Precarious

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 88) August 19, 2015

Two weeks ago the political discussion in Canada was all about the leadership debate and whether any of the prospective leader candidates has what it takes to be prime minister.  This last week the political gossip was all about the Mike Duffy trial and the appearance of Stephen Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright.  As to my impressions on the leadership debate, I have mixed feelings on the performance of the four leaders:                        Stephen Harper was unable to defend his disappointing record on what can only be described as a sputtering economy.  In the leadership debate, the prime minister did not shine as a particularly good manager of Canada’s economic circumstance.  Put another way, Mr. Harper misjudged the global political economy and has yet to present a plan to make Canada more sustainable and viable.                                                                              Thomas Mulcair appeared nervous at the beginning of the debate and unable to take advantage of his party’s success in the national polling, and particularly Rachel Notley’s NDP win in Alberta.  Mr. Mulcair’s stance on what constitutes a Quebec separation mandate and his party’s wish to abolish Canada’s Senate will haunt his chances to form a national government on October 19.                                                                                                    Justin Trudeau outperformed both the prime minister and the opposition leader.  Mr. Trudeau’s position on the Senate and Quebec separation will bode well for him in any future debates, especially those in Quebec.  In my view Mr. Trudeau demonstrated confidence and spunk in the debate and that means he is a contender.  What Mr. Trudeau has to do in his campaign for the country’s top political job is to show leadership of an experienced team of politicians and take his collegial, “consensus building” gloves off when sparring with his political opponents.                                                                 Elizabeth May has always (almost always) shown class and intelligence when dealing with the political issues being faced, unfortunately the Green Party which she leads has been branded as being a single issue party.  Nevertheless Elizabeth May could become an important force should the October 19 election generate a minority government (of course she will have to win her seat on Vancouver Island as well). 

The Mike Duffy Factor – Explosive!

Election Day is still two months off and Canadians are still thinking and doing things related to the summer months.  At the same time, people like me are spending time assessing the ever changing political landscape and trying to determine what will resonate with the public on Election Day.  My assessment, the Mike Duffy trial will decide for many of the undecided.  After a two month recess, the Mike Duffy trial resumed deliberations last week with Stephen Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright testifying.  While Mr. Wright’s testimony is still underway (and with other witnesses yet to testify), it is becoming clear; the Duffy Trial has become a hodgepodge of inconsistencies, lies and contradictions, along with interference and cover-ups.  Surprisingly the accusations are not necessarily being directed at Mike Duffy.  In the end and I don’t see it going any other way, the trial will lead to disaster for some, embarrassment for others.  As to the impact on the election, I think it prudent to leave summary conclusions for a few weeks and after the trial has concluded – as to Stephen Harper’s reaction on what has been presented, he views the apparent facts differently?

Harper's Debate Performance, Stumbled Badly

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 87) August 12, 2015

Canada’s October 19 election is still ten weeks away and for the most part, Canadian thoughts are still on gardening, mowing the lawn and what remains of their summer holiday.   For “nominated” candidates seeking support from their local electorate, it’s all about exposure (picnics, rodeos, parades) and when forced to making a substantive comment, they offer only the party line, no matter what that party line might be.  For party leaders and the party machines behind the leaders, it’s all about what might resonate with the public and then determining how to best communicate with the public after the Labour Day weekend. 

Last Week’s Leadership Debate

Good analysis of last week’s televised leadership debate is lacking and for me, it suggests that the debate occurred far too early in the campaign.  One poll taken in British Columbia, just after last Thursday’s debate there is the suggestion that British Columbians are convinced that Justin Trudeau proved himself to be feisty and the best debater, while Thomas Mulcair was the most effective leader and most likely to win the October 19 election.  As to the more heated exchanges between the party leaders in the two hour debate last Thursday, I think three encounters are worth mentioning and will resonate with the Canadian electorate.

On the Economy

The debate on whether Canada was in a recession caused Stephen Harper to stumble.  Thomas Mulcair observed to Mr. Harper that many observers feel Canada is in a recession.  Mr. Harper nervously responded:  “I’m not denying that [there is a recession] but what I’m saying is that that contraction is almost exclusively in the energy sector.”  Mr. Harper later tried to recover from his blunder and suggested that his government culminated trade deals with 44 countries, up from five when he took office.  Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party and no slouch to national political debates, retorted that the trade deals were set up “to sell us down the river on national sovereignty.”  May went on to criticize Mr. Harper and his investment treaty with China, saying:  “Beijing will be looking over the shoulder of the next prime minister and telling us which laws we’re allowed to pass.”  In total, Mr. Harper fumbled the ball on the economic issues, with Thomas Mulcair and Elizabeth May showing knowledge and strength.

The Clarity Act

If there was a surprise in last week’s debate, it was the Mulcair, Trudeau exchange on the Clarity Act and whether a 50 percent plus one vote in a Quebec referendum would be sufficient mandate to break up the country?  With gusto, Thomas Mulcair repeatedly pressed Justin Trudeau for a percentage number.  Irritated, Mr. Trudeau fired back with what was the knockout punch of the debate and in my view, demonstrated that Justin Trudeau is a credible candidate for the role of prime minister:  “My number is nine.”  And Mr. Trudeau went on to say:  “Nine supreme court justices said one vote is not enough to break up this country and yet that is Mr. Mulcair’s . He wants to be prime minister of this country and he is choosing to side with the separatist movement in Quebec and not with the Supreme Court of Canada.”  How this plays out during the balance of the campaign in Quebec is crucial for both Mulcair and Trudeau.  It could be the factor that determines who will be Canada’s next prime minister.

Terrorism

While terrorism was discussed at last Thursday’s debate, in my view it was not considered a core issue for the debate.  Mr. Mulcair did criticize Mr. Trudeau’s support of Harper’s anti-terrorism initiative (C-51) and Mr. Trudeau responded with his view, that the bill “immediately and concretely protects Canadian society” and he is committed “to repealing problematic elements.”  What is surprising for me is Mr. Harper’s position and how he is using the “terrorism card” in his overall campaign.  Just four days after Mr. Harper stumbled on his government’s economic performance in the debate, he introduced new measures on Canadian travel to countries where there is known terrorism threat – in Stephen Harper’s mind that’s a lot of countries.  In my mind, will the fear, terrorism factor become the only useable card left in Mr. Harper’s approach to re-election?  

Harper's View on Winning the Election

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 86) August 5, 2015

Its official, the 2015 federal election campaign is “officially” underway and there is little doubt on what is to come, the campaign is going to be unusual, exciting and excruciatingly long.  On Sunday Prime Minister Stephen Harper asked Governor General David Johnston to issue a writ and dissolve Canada’s 41^st Parliament.  The writ was issued and the 11 week election campaign became a reality – in Canada, election campaigns are usually about 5 weeks in length, at least that’s the way it’s been for the past 140 years.  A few thoughts on how Mr. Harper kicked things off:

Cost of Early Election Call 

While it is easy to dismiss Mr. Harper’s early election call as the opportunity to more effectively communicate with Canadians, to the Canadian taxpayer it means that Elections Canada will be spending an estimated $500 million for expenses and political rebates – an important portion of the $500 million is a result of the early election call.

Clear Strategy, Control the Message

While some pundits have framed Mr. Harper’s early election call as an exercise in political trickery, I feel the call was a meticulous calculation.  Mr. Harper had no choice but to call for an extended election campaign.  In my view Mr. Harper’s goal is to control the message going out to Canadians until October 19, he and the Conservatives have the dollars to do it.    

Harper’s War Chest  

Mr. Harper has amassed a war chest that political rivals are unable to match.  As well, the “new” rules attached to federal election campaigns means spending by other, “third” party interest groups (unions, aboriginals) will be strictly controlled, if not disallowed.  Good news for Mr. Harper and his Conservatives, bad news for Mulcair and Trudeau who have stumbled at the starting gate. 

New Language

Mr. Harper is using new words and phrases to reflect a new approach to campaigning and at the same time defends his leadership and performance.  The country must “stay the course”, otherwise there is “risk” and things could get “dangerous”.  Mr. Harper is claiming that the causes of Canada’s poor economic performance are outside the control of his government.  And regardless, the negative impacts are only having “temporary effects” in Canada.

The Polls

The public opinion polls are where Mr. Harper wants them – a basic tie between Harper’s Conservatives (30.9 percent), Mulcair’s New Democrats (33.2 percent) and Trudeau’s Liberals (25.9 percent).  What is worrisome to Mr. Harper is the surge by Mulcair’s New Democratic support and what occurred in Alberta’s election last May.  If Mr. Harper can keep the public support between the three leaders relatively even, he feels he can move up the center on October 19 and form a minority government.