The Fear Strategy is Working

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 62) January 28, 2015

Measuring and judging the political mood of Canadians during unusual times is and never has been an easy task.  Actually, the most accurate measure of the country’s political mood is to have an election and by law, Canadians are going to have one in 2015 although there is some debate as to when Prime Minister Harper will drop the writ.  Between elections, “customer satisfaction” is measured by political opinion polls and the resulting assessments by pollsters and pundits.  An opinion poll undertaken by the Ipsos research group in January, 2015 gives Steven Harper’s Conservatives an approval rating of 35 percent, with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals garnering 31 percent and Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats at a relatively stable 24 percent.  While this single opinion poll does not necessarily indicate a trend toward the Conservatives, it does indicate a possible danger signal for the Liberals.  In my view the Ipsos poll shows a significant if not a dramatic shift away from Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada – a loss of seven points in a matter of five months.

On the Road to a Majority, the Harper Way    

About a year ago the Harper government was in real difficulty – largely due to the Senate Scandal and Mr. Harper’s objectionable, if not disrespectful attitude toward Canada’s parliamentary system in the House of Commons and the Senate – and not to be forgotten, Mr. Harper’s inappropriate, uncalled for confrontation with the Supreme Court of Canada’s Chief Justice.  As well there are a good number of economic and environmental issues that have been bungled and magnified by the collapse in the international oil pricing system – the inability to settle the Keystone XL pipeline issue with US President Obama; the lack of a Canadian national energy strategy in light of seven months of declining oil prices and the consequences of the low Canadian dollar in building a stronger, more sustainable national economy.   Not to be discouraged and facing an election in the months ahead, Mr. Harper decided to make a strategic shift in his approach to domestic issues, ignore them and if and when necessary, frame everything in terms of Canada’s security and the fight against terrorism – the result, his new approach to electioneering and it’s working.

Alberta, Canada in Crisis

Whispering in the Wind (WITW61) January 21, 2015

The political scheming that’s going on in Ottawa and Edmonton has gotten the Canadian public confused and shaking their heads with disbelief and worry.  Canadians are now asking; how did Canada get into this mess, who is responsible and will the upcoming election(s) clean things up?  Following is my take on one major reality facing Canada (Alberta) and how this reality is going to play out in the next four or five years. 

The Collapse of Oil Prices

Since the 1960s, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel has dominated the global oil supply market.  Because of the entrenched pricing mechanism, the OPEC members “effectively” control international oil prices by adjusting their oil output levels.  Things have changed in the last twenty years and OPEC’s share of the global market has declined to about a 35-40 percent share – due in large part to increased supplies of more expensive-to-produce oil in countries like United States and Canada.  The slowing of some country economies like China has magnified the over-supply situation.  The bottom line, the OPEC nations feel threatened and they reacted.  Last November the twelve member states of OPEC met in Vienna and stood firm on maintaining their production levels at about 30 million barrels a day to keep their 40 percent share of the global market and to shelve the more expensive technologies in the United States and Canada.  This OPEC decision last November (when the price was at about US$70 per barrel) has driven prices to under US$50 per barrel – a catastrophic blow to Alberta’s more expensive oil sands developments. 

Alberta Needs to Regroup With Canada

I am convinced that Jim Prentice is the right person to guide Alberta through these very troubling times, but Premier Prentice has to come to grips with the diversity of Canada and the reality of its various power structures, structures and ideologies that at times have been known to divide the country.  What Premier Prentice has to do is get Steven Harper on side and get the prime minister supporting the development of a Nation Building Strategy that includes a National Energy Strategy and that means building strategic pipelines and further the further development of Alberta’s oil sands.  My advice to both Premier Prentice and Prime Minister Harper, be bold and have a vision – and in the end, use debt financing as a tool to build a stronger, more sustainable province and nation. 

Canada on the Edge

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 60) January 14, 2015

I’m having chilling thoughts about the recent “terrorism” activity in Canada, Australia and now, France.  Not to discount the importance of the horrific, murderous events in Canada and Australia but the attacks in Paris have shown countries like Canada that they are facing a much more dangerous situation than what was thought two and one half months ago.  From my perspective the march in Paris last Sunday just about tells it all.  An estimated million and a half people (along with 40 political leaders in locked arms) marched in the streets of Paris to express solidarity, freedom and anger.  The jihadist terrorist group known as ISIS responded to the march in Paris by naming France, Australia and Canada as specific targets for further carnage and disruption. 

Canadians, On Edge!

On October 20 Warrant Officer Patrice Vincent was run down in Quebec by a man who apparently embraced radical Islam.  Two days later at the National War Memorial in Ottawa, Corporal Nathan Cirillo was shot dead by a deranged Islamic extremist.  Both extremists were apparently persons of interest to Canada’s spy agency (CISIS), the authority that judges who poses a threat to Canada’s security.  In Canada there are apparently 100 persons of particular interest to CISIS and have been judged to be extreme supporters of Islam and sympathetic to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria movement, the ISIS movement.  Mr. Harper’s government is considering further legislative measures to stop terrorism initiatives in Canada and elsewhere.  To date there have been three arrests made under existing laws where the charges relate to planned terrorism activities.  To say the least, the Canadian public is on edge.

The Politics of Terrorism

The definition of “terrorism” is pretty straight forward and “is the use of violence or the threat of violence, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political goals”.  Put another way it’s not only about killing, it’s about politics.  In Canada, Prime Minister Harper used the parliamentary process and his “majority” government to fight the ISIS terrorism threats by engaging Canadian forces in an air war against the ISIS movement in Iraq.  After a six month trial the engagement will be reviewed by the prime minister’s “majority” government   Reports on the success of the short term Canadian mission in Iraq is mixed, if not disappointing.  On the other hand the ISIS mission in Canada (the murders in Quebec and Ottawa) has to be viewed as totally disruptive to the Canadian psyche – creating a heightened level of anxiety amongst a good number of Canadians – in some cases, animosity against extreme religious groups that have flourished in Canada’s tolerant, pluralistic society.  It’s been 45 years since Canada experienced a similar crisis referred to as the 1970 October Crisis – when troops were placed on Quebec streets to deal with the kidnapping and murder episodesl perpetrated by the FLQ terrorist group – the prime minister at the time of the October Crisis was the abrasive, autocrat Pierre Eliot Trudeau.

Churchill Said: Never Let a Good Crisis Go To Waste!

Canada is facing an election in 2015 with the exact date still open for decision by the prime minister.  In my view, the election campaign will be about strong leadership at a time of crisis. Mr. Harper has selected international terrorism to be the crisis to focus on and that likely means an early general election – striking while the iron is hot.  There are many other crises to consider:  collapsed oil prices; a sputtering economy; pipelines; the low Canadian dollar; environmental impacts on resource development; nation building with the Aboriginal peoples; the Duffy criminal trial and the collapse of the Senate – the list could go on and on.  The bottom line is that Mr. Harper wants to win another “majority” government and that means any issue where he has failed will be translated into the need for strong, decisive leadership in a time of crisis.   

          

Alberta Wildrose - Sticking to Principles a Troubling Strategy

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 59) January 4, 2015

Alberta’s Political Debacle 

Making sense of what’s going on in Alberta’s political arena has gotten just about everybody shaking their heads in confusion, if not disbelief – on December 17 the leader of Alberta’s Official Opposition and eight of her colleagues walked the political floor and joined Jim Prentice and his ruling Progressive Conservative government.  As explosive as these defections were I don’t think many people expected what is unfolding in the aftermath.  The grassroots of the Wildrose Party are outraged by the unprecedented action of their former leader Danielle Smith.  Some are so incensed they’ve launched an online petition asking for the recall of Danielle Smith – to date 8,434 signatures have registered in the recall petition, not enough to prompt or guarantee a recall but sufficient enough to make an important statement.  Some within the Progressive Conservative ranks are also suspicious and grumbling.  Within the PC caucus there are some reservations regarding the written “reunification” understanding which gives privilege to the Wildrose defectors in the PC nomination process – an issue that is now questioned.  As to the general membership of the PC party, a good number are concerned that the “progressive” component in the Alberta PC movement is being squeezed out of the political equation – I happen to be one of them.  So is this political maneuver by Danielle Smith just a family squabble between the “red” and “blue” Tories or is it an omen of what is to come – a repeat of what happened at the federal level fifteen years ago?

The Preston Manning Factor

To add further confusion and suspicion to the defection debacle; on December 22 Preston Manning publically apologized for his role in the cross over strategy?  Mr. Manning admits that he was asked by the Wildrose caucus to share his experiences in the “unite the right” movement and the fusion of the Reform –Alliance party with the federal PC party.  Apparently Mr. Manning’s views were the turning point for nine of the Wildrose MLAs, but not the full caucus.  From my perspective, Mr. Manning is a pretty smart guy and he took a calculated power risk, a risk that turned sour with the grassroots.  In my view the defection strategy was to have the full Wildrose caucus move into the PC caucus – a third of the Wildrose caucus members disagreed.  With a third not agreeing with Preston Manning’s view or Danielle Smith’s power ploy, it is clear; an important, significant segment of the Wildrose consider principles and values to be more relevant than gaining or seeking power.  Danielle Smith (and Preston Manning) should have understood that the Progressive Conservative philosophy is different from Wildrose principles and values – that became obvious at the Annual Wildrose meeting held a few months ago where 58 percent of the delegates voted against the party becoming more liberal.