Federal By-elections - Winners and losers

Whispering in the Wind November 26, 2013 WITW6

Prime Minister Harper Has to Face Up to Reality

Canada’s political landscape has changed dramatically in the last number of years and some would say not for the better.  In the last year Canadians have been exposed to two scandals which continue to be investigated by police authorities – charges are pending in both scandals.  What is so fascinating and very, very disturbing about the Senate Expenses scandal; the authorities are now investigating the role of the prime minister and his staff – there is a real possibility that criminal charges will be assigned to a number of people associated with related cover-ups including, Senator Mike Duffy and Prime Minister Harper’s former Chief of Staff, Nigel Wright.  To measure the mood of Canadians and how they view the Senate scandal a large number of polls have been undertaken and it’s never good news for Prime Minister Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada.  As to the mood of the electorate there were four federal by-elections held on Monday.  The results are fascinating and some are saying that the results are an omen of what is to come in 2015.

By-Election Results – The Winners and Losers 

November 25, 2013 saw federal by-elections take place in four ridings – Toronto Centre; Montreal Bourssa; Manitoba Brandon-Souris and Manitoba Provendcher.  The results did not change the party standings in the House of Commons and the status quo was maintained, two Conservative victories and two Liberal victories.  It goes without saying that the Liberals claimed a major victory for leader Justin Trudeau - Mr. Trudeau has made his mark, now he has to deliver.  Tom Mulcair of the NDP will have to lick his wounds because of his poor showing in Montreal and Steven Harper will have to admit that the Senate Expenses Scandal has tarnished his brand in Manitoba, if not all of western Canada.

Premier Alison Redford Endorsed by Party Faithful

Alison Redford was given a 77 percent approval rating by the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party last week in Red Deer.  Her comfortable support – political supporters call it strong – is under-rating her skills as a political leader.  From my perspective she proved to be a major political force in Canada because of three recent initiatives – thwarting the premier of British Columbia from grabbing onto some of Alberta’s royalties; sponsoring and helping to lead in the development of a Canadian Energy Strategy and negotiating an energy framework agreement with the People’s Republic of China.  Alison Redford still has a lot of work to do on the Alberta royalty issue and she has to find some way to get Prime Minister Harper (and the other provinces) engaged in a Nation Building exercise.   As an aside: to those that produced “The Building Alberta Plan 2013 Edition” add a fourth building block and label it “Nation Building”.         

Alberta's Royalty Windfall

Whispering in the Wind: (November 18, 2013) WITW 5

As unbelievable as it is, the Rob Ford saga isn’t the only political story worth discussing:

Northern Gateway Pipeline Project

After months of “frosty” dialogue and intense debate Alberta Premier Redford and British Columbia Premier Clark signed an accord that moves the Northern Gateway Pipeline proposal a step closer to reality.  In the first week of November the two premiers agreed to a strategy that will most likely see Alberta bitumen shipments going to Asia through coastal facilities at Kitimat, British Columbia in 2015.  Critical to the joint announcement – Alberta royalty sharing is not part of the agreement (never a consideration according to Alison Redford) – British Columbia will have to negotiate with Enbridge and other private companies if it wants to receive “additional” economic benefit.  The BC premier also announced that her government supports Premier Redford’s “Canadian Energy Strategy” initiative.  Initially Premier Clark insisted that Alberta share its bitumen royalties with British Columbia and it became a key condition if BC was to give its okay for the transport of bitumen through BC’s territory.  Premier Redford quietly, but firmly, responded that Alberta’s royalties were not up for any discussion and reminded the BC premier that 42 percent of her province’s natural gas shipments pass through Alberta territory – does it mean BC is willing to share her province’s royalties with Alberta?  With that clear consequence, Premier Clark’s strategy of royalty sharing collapsed.   As foolish as Premier Clark’s provincial strategy was, it is going to have consequences and will linger in arguments put forth by First Nations groups.  From my perspective Premier Redford is to be congratulated for her guiding the negotiations with British Columbia and her clear commitment for a “Canadian Energy Strategy”.  But the Northern Gateway Pipeline project doesn’t end with the Alberta – British Columbia Accord – there are a number of other so called obstacles yet to be dealt with.  There are the regulatory hearings being held in Ottawa, the more active Idle No More Movement that is starting to dictate national policy measures for their territories as well as more “accommodation” when it comes to development.  And for this week’s column, a new pricing structure for bitumen. 

Pricing Bitumen

The price of oil is set by an international bidding system where there are numerous buyers and numerous sellers.  The benchmark oil price most often used in North America is WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and is the number most often seen on your television sets.  For those who watch the WTI price, the WTI varies on a daily basis, sometimes significantly – in December, 2012 the WTI averaged $106 per barrel.  The benchmark oil price in Alberta, including oil sands bitumen, is WCS (Western Canada Select) – in December, 2012 the WCS averaged $75 per barrel.  What is most relevant to Alberta, there is a third standard which Alberta should be using when planning for its future prosperity, the Maya price.  To quote from an Alberta government release:  “Maya, a benchmark for heavy oil produced in Mexico, is similar in quality to Alberta’s WCS, but sells $43 more than Alberta’s bitumen (as of January 11, 2013) at $101 per barrel in the market.  Oil from Mexico has direct access to the ocean where it can reach international markets.  For that reason, it fetches a higher price than Alberta’s oil.”  Here is my take on this very complex, risky pricing structure – when the Northern Gateway Pipeline project is completed in 2015, the international price for Alberta bitumen (will continue to be determined by the international bidding system) is likely to increase significantly and could be sold at a premium to the WTI price.  No matter how you look at it, the revenue streams going to the producers, transporters and governments will grow dramatically as well – it is not just a windfall, it is a “continuous” windfall – and it might be the underlying reason for Premier Christy Clark of British Columbia insistence that her province participate in Alberta’s royalty system.  And for anybody that will listen, the revenue pie for Alberta’s energy sector (particularly the bitumen producers) is going to grow significantly after 2015 – now is the time to re-think who should be benefiting and who shouldn’t be benefiting from the expected, ongoing windfall – to the Alberta government, re-think Alberta’s royalty system and do it now!    

Canada's Reputation Destroyed!

Whispering in the Wind:  (November 11, 2013) WITW 4

Two international surveys have labeled Canada as the world’s most “reputable” nation.  Undertaken about a year ago, the survey respondents viewed Canada to be a stable and honorable nation with a governance system that should be held in high esteem.  The recent scandals and a number of other important events in Canada have cast a dark shadow over Canada’s image, both at home and abroad, with some observers saying that Canada’s image has been severely tarnished with others more politically motivated, suggesting that Canada’s reputation has been blown out of the water.  To judge those assessments in light of recent events is to judge the performance of Canada’s governance system and its political leadership – particularly and more specifically, Mr. Harper’s government and his focused leadership on the economy.  Following is my assessment of Canada’s political landscape and how it might have changed – hopefully for the better and in the end, hopefully making Canada a better, stronger nation. 

The Senate Expenses Scandal – has tempered a bit with the suspension of Senators Duffy, Wallin and Brazeau but there is more to come with the RCMP investigations.  What I find so disturbing is that the charges and counter charges made were made with a lot of political-speak with decisions railroaded through without due process.  In the absence of transparency and fair play I have concluded that there was a vendetta against the three Senators because they would not tow the Conservative Party line and the interference from the very top – so much for the independence of the Senate when passing judgment. 

The City of Toronto Scandal – the Rob Ford saga is proving to be a real tragedy for the mayor, the city and the country – and there doesn’t seem an acceptable political process to fix the problem.  One criteria for judging the world’s most “reputable” countries, is to have vibrant, dynamic cities to live in, to be safe in and to do business in and those goals  are being threatened with the way the Rob Ford saga is unfolding – at least in Toronto.   What I find surprising is that the province of Ontario isn’t stepping in to remove the mayor from office – after all Canadians expect provinces to maintain “peace, order and good government” within its municipalities.  The City of Toronto isn’t the only city suffering from an image problem.  The City of Montreal is also suffering from an image problem – in just one year the City of Montreal has had four mayors, two of which have been thrown out of office and are facing corruption charges. 

Prime Minister’s Role in Senate Scandal – has negatively impacted Prime Minister Harper’s image, both within Canada and around the world.  The prime minister’s refusal to be forthright when asked direct questions on his role in the so-called Senate Expenses Scandal and his direct, interfering role in the so-called “independent” Senate decision to suspend Senators, has left many people, both here and abroad, agreeing with former prime minister Joe Clark who suggested that Prime Minister Harper needs to “bring people into the facts” and tell the real story about what went on between Senator Mike Duffy and  Nigel Wright, Mr. Harper’s former Chief of Staff.  At this point in time Prime Minister Harper is severely damaging Canada’s reputation abroad.

Prime Minister’s Role in Nation Building – has become a big question mark!

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Save Canada - Save the Senate

Whispering in the Wind – (November 4, 2013) WITW: 3

In the last couple of weeks national politics has taken a turn for the worse with the so-called Senate Expense Scandal.  Politicians and staffers on the government side are running for cover with truth taking a back seat to a single conspiracy theory and a good number of cover-ups.  Responsibility, transparency and accountability are values that were so important to Prime Minister Harper in 2006, have all been sacrificed with misleading statements and basic obfuscation.  For the average Canadian there is a great deal of confusion and a lot of frustration.

The Senate Expenses Scandal

The Senate expense scandal has finally come to a kind-of conclusion with three Senators thrown under the Conservative bus without due process – Prime Minister Harper gave his final direction in a speech last Friday at the Conservative Policy Conference in Calgary.  In that speech he clearly insisted that Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau should be suspended from the Senate without pay.  I am pretty sure the Prime Minister’s directive could bend a bit, if only to show that the Senate is “independent” of his directive.  So it will now be up to the RCMP and the courts to determine the long term fate of the three Senators.  Stop the presses – information made on Monday indicates that Senator Gerstein of the Conservative Party was entertaining a payment of $30,000 to Mike Duffy for his residential expenses using the Conservative Party of Canada Fund.  When the expenses grew to $90,000 the offer was apparently withdrawn.  Stop the presses again – it is now believed that the $90,000 given to Mike Duffy might be a bribe, the RCMP are investigating – will the drama never end?       

The Role of the Prime Minister

Lingering questions continue to haunt Prime Minister Harper and the role he might have played in the Senate Expenses Scandal.  His stonewalling of legitimate questions put to him (his refusal to communicate or cooperate) is quite disturbing and leaves some to speculate that he might be covering up something greater than simple mistakes or misdemeanors.  As to advice for Prime Minister Harper and suggestions as to what he should do or say; the best advice comes from former prime minister Joe Clark who offered the following observations last weekend:  “Right now, I think [Prime Minister Harper] has to bring people into the facts ….he needs to tell the real story and I think he needs to seek some advice as to what’s the most effective way to do that ….”      

Rebuilding the Senate

The “parliament” of Canada is made up of three extremely important components; the Governor General, the House of Commons and the Senate.  Of the three pillars of Canada’s parliamentary governance the Senate is in desperate need of repair.  The Senate was severely damaged in the last year or so but it is also a result of many decades of external neglect and internal mismanagement.  From my perspective I think the broken Senate can and should be rebuilt and there are a number of upper house models to choose from.  For those who wish to see the Senate abolished I suggest that they review the historical importance of having a chamber that offers sober second, never mind keeping exuberant prime ministers in check.  Simply put; if you get rid of the Senate at a time of majority government, you are paving a highway to dictatorship – and that’s the threat.