Canada's Electorate - A Generational Mishmash

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 31) May 27, 2014

Many years ago I worked as a market analyst for a major manufacturing firm in Edmonton.  In those days I spent untold hours trying to define and understand the characteristics of a loyal customer versus the not-so-loyal, potential customer.  Things are not different in politics from what I did in the back rooms of corporate Alberta – know your customer and understand your potential customer.  Within political parties there are armies of analysts and advisors who continuously feed politicians platform statements, strategies and scripted statements, all structured to win the hearts and minds of a volatile, segmented voting public. 

The Electorate – A Generational Mishmash

Understanding the political electorate is crucial to winning elections – the trick for politicians is to understand their constituency of interest and then follow a strategy that lures maximum support from a very volatile, segmented voting public.  Following is one approach offered by social scientists who define the Canadian population in terms attitudes and values, by age groups.  I’ve addressed this traditional population segmentation analysis and how it is being dealt with by today’s political leadership.    

War Generation – Typically the War Generation population is retirement age.  Generally the group has limited access to computers and are well versed in the trials of the World War II years.  These so called war babies were heavily influenced by their parents who lived and dealt with the struggles attached to the Great Depression years.  Worthy to note, Canada’s 65 -74 year olds, as a group has more than doubled in the last twenty years with experts projecting that in the next twenty years, this seniors group will make up a quarter of Canada’s population.  This reality of an aging population and their priorities of social security and healthcare is now drawing a lot of attention from politicians.  Relevant for the politician is the voter participation rate for this age group.  In the 2011 federal election, those in the 65 – 74 years category had a voter participation rate of 75.1 percent, higher than any other age group.  Politicians that ignore the War Generation’s rigid “old fashioned” ways and their priorities will do so at their peril.  From my perspective Steven Harper has been most successful amongst the federal leaders in luring the War Generation population into his sphere of influence.           

Baby Boomers – Now approaching retirement age “boomers” are those born in the decades following the end of World War II and were reared in the golden age of opportunity and  prosperity.  The Baby Boomers are now 45-65 years of age.  They are considered a generation who were reared and supported by parents who experienced the Great Depression.  The boomers have values that generally include; strong close family ties, respect for their elders and the law.  The boomers generally hold more traditional values when it comes to marriage and birth control.  Baby boomers have a strong sense of paying off their mortgages as quickly as possible and storing away saving to supplement their government and private pension plans.  Common put-downs range from being part of the “me” generation with “last century” values.  Baby boomers are very high on security and have generally planned for their retirement.  From a demographic perspective, those in the 45 to 65 age category constitute about 28 percent of Canada’s population.  Canada’s Baby Boomers are in control of much of the country’s wealth and influence in politics.  For the politician it is becoming very evident that the wealth generators are growing older with fewer people able to fill the anticipated taxation shortfall.   I don’t think there is any doubt healthcare costs are going to escalate in the next twenty years and the politician doesn’t know how to deal with the likely implosion.  Again Steven Harper comes out on top opposite Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau but there are some severe reservations about  Mr. Harper’s handling of a number of other serious issues.  In my view Baby Boomers will end up judging whether Mr. Harper is an autocrat or just a strong manager of his troops.  Mr. Mulcair has been ranked as an excellent parliamentarian but unfortunately belongs to the wrong party.  Judgement on Mr. Trudeau is still pending as Baby Boomers feel that Mr. Trudeau has made some good suggestions but has gaffed too many times and is just not experienced enough to take over the reins of power. 

Generation X – Those born between the early 1960s through to 1980 (now in their early 30s to their mid-40s) are often labelled the “slacker” generation, uncommitted and unfocused – the “why me?” generation.  “Xers” are the first generation to experience full commitment to the internet age, high divorce rates and have been known to change jobs and careers more often because they expected more.  While Xer’s parents experienced the zoot-zooter and hippy eras, the Xers themselves are keeping their heads down and don’t want to get involved in anything that might change themselves or the world.  Again I would rank Mr. Harper the winner, only because Xers don’t want to rock a reasonably stable ship. 

Generation Y – Those born between 1981 and 1994 – aged between 20 and 30 years – are considered lazy, debt-ridden and programmed for instant gratification.   They are portrayed as demanding and unrealistic in their aspirations.  Now we can add “internet-addicted” and “lonely” – they have few friends and are very disappointed should a friend not live up to expectations, Yers are very possessive.  In my view Yers aren’t happy with their stage in life so they are looking for a way out but it will be difficult for them to choose between Mulcair and Trudeau as a leader.

Generation Z – Those born between 1995 and 2009, these 21^st century teens are totally engrossed with computer devices and have been referred to by some as the “Internet Generation” and are fast becoming potential voters.  For the politician it means a lot of Twittering, Face-booking or what?  No doubt in my mind, if Zers are interested enough and eligible to vote in October, 2015, they will go for Trudeau. 

A Final Thought – When I first started writing this article I was convinced that there was a meaningful connection between social science theories on profiling a population opposite the art of politics.  I was woefully wrong, so what do you think?  I would appreciate your views. 

Flexing Your Muscles can be Dangerous

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 30) May 20, 2014

The big boys are starting to flex some serious muscle in the geo-political arena where there is no referee and there are no Queensberry rules of play.  What makes the current sparring between nations so dangerous is how will the geo-political landscape change?

Putin’s Vision for a New Russia

As outlined last week, Russian President Putin’s prime political objective is to assemble a reconstituted Soviet Union, if not a new tsarist type, Imperial Russia.  Operating under the pretext that Russia was only protecting ethnic Russians in the Ukraine, Mr. Putin was able to annex the autonomous region of Crimea where it is estimated that 90 percent of the population is Russian speaking.  Now the two most eastern regions in eastern Ukraine, the Luhansk and Donetsk districts are under pro-Russian control, have declared independence from the central government in Kiev and will not allow for the national presidential election scheduled for May 25.  Oligarchs in the eastern provinces are not supporting the pro-Russian forces and are asking that they lay down their arms and go back to work.  For Mr. Putin, he has taken a wait-and-see strategy saying that he welcomes the presidential elections and ordered some Russian troops back from the Ukrainian boarder.  I don’t think there is any doubt there will be revolt by some disgruntled rebels, if not civil war in the eastern provinces after May 25’s election.  Mr. Putin will restrain himself from further intervention in the eastern provinces as long as NATO doesn’t get involved.  The big question for Mr. Putin; will he have to back down on his expansionist visions or will he be satisfied with just the Crimea’s annexation?  .           

China’s Bullying Tactics

The Philippines and Vietnam are involved in a standoff with China on the high seas and it appears that there could be war in the South China Sea – for the moment the two sides are using water cannons to express their views and displeasure.  It appears that China has moved a giant oil rig (along with a number of war ships) last month into waters that are claimed by the Filipinos and the Vietnamese.  China’s incursion into the region appears to be a blatant bullying tactic on the part of the People’s Republic of China – as they have done in other territorial disputes in the Asian region.  For the current standoff in the South China Sea the Vice-president of the United States opined to the Chinese authorities:  “China must not undermine security and peace” which to me is a rather weak statement coming from the once undisputed authority on international conduct – how things have changed!

United States in Trouble

Forty fifty years ago there was no question as to who was the world’s economic power house, who was the world’s military superpower, who set the standard of international conduct and who did the policing.  In the same fifty year timeframe “globalization” took hold and again the United States’ corporate giants were the dominant factor in international economic relations.  In 1975 Fortune 500 ranked the world’s largest companies (in terms of revenue) and of the 10 largest, 9 were United States based – the three largest being; Exxon, General Motors and Ford.  In 2013 Fortune 500 top 10 list included 2 US based companies (Wal-Mart was second and Exxon was third) with China having 3 on the top 10 list, Europe having 4 and Japan’s having one.  On top of Fortune’s list was the Royal Dutch Shell company of the Netherlands with close to a half trillion dollars in revenue.  From my perspective it doesn’t take a lot of analysis to conclude that the United States has lost considerable ground when it comes to world economic dominance.   At present the US remains the largest, most significant market for goods and services produced outside its territorial boarders and it will remain so as long as it can continue to borrow money (and go further into debt).  For the United States, the big question is going to be can they turn themselves around and remain a dominant player – at the moment things do not look particularly good.    

Learning from Disaster!

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 29) May 13, 2014

Making sense out of this troubled world is not an easy task and for me it always comes down to sorting out a semblance of reality from the propaganda spewed out by politics. 

Putin’s Strategic Attacks on the Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin has only one vision for his Mother Russia, a reconstituted Soviet Union. The president of the Russian Federation feels that by absorbing Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence he will destabilize Western Europe’s influence in a number of other countries where ethnic Russians have gained a relevant foothold. 

In a questionable “referendum” held last March in the autonomous region of Crimea, the vote was in favor of annexation by the Russian Federation.  Mr. Putin was able to absorb the Crimea without any major disturbance in large part because that’s what the people of the Crimea wanted.  A reputable international survey firm estimated that only 12 percent of Crimea residents wanted to be part of a united Ukraine. 

A week ago, the Ukrainian districts of Luhansk and Donetsk voted in questionable referendum – no, it has to go further; an illegal, fraudulent, stacked referendum.  The result of the so called vote suggests that over 90 percent of the population in Luhansk and Donetsk want independence from the central government in Kiev.  The rebel leaders in control of the Luhansk and Donetsk districts are now asking that their districts become a part of the Russian Federation – the rebels are also saying they will not allow for the Ukrainian presidential elections scheduled for the last week of May.  The Pew research group is estimating that in the 11 most eastern provinces of the Ukraine:  45 percent of the population are Russian speaking, 70 percent are in favor of remaining united within Ukraine and 67 percent are unhappy with present government in Kiev.  How President Putin reacts is going to be critical – if he doesn’t take control of the rebels and allow for voting in the presidential there will be civil war – if he allows the “uncontrollable” rebels to maintain control, there will be civil war.  Guess what, there is going to be civil war in the eastern provinces of the Ukraine.

Nigeria, Disgraced and Rightfully So!

The news that close to 300 school girls were taken hostages and held for ransom, if not being sold as wives, slaves or sex objects can only be described as one of the most heinous crimes ever to be documented.  Perpetrated by the extremist Islamic group, Boko Haram is now negotiating “some” of the hostages for the release of imprisoned terrorists.  What is equally disturbing is that Amnesty International is reporting that Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Johnathan could have prevented the hostage taking if the president had taken action earlier.  Surely something has to be done to identify and deal with political leaders that are clearly unfit for office.

Canada Can Learn a Thing or Two

So what can Canada’s political leadership learn from the actions and events as they are unfolding in the Ukraine, Russia and Nigeria?  In my view Canada has a democratic governance system that is second to none in the world, but that does not mean things cannot be improved through more cooperative political leadership in Ottawa and elsewhere – Canada’s future depends on it.      

Harperland Crumbling

Whispering in the Wind (WITW 28) May 7, 2014. 

Not too long ago Steven Harper’s strategy for the 2015 election was both simple and obvious:  neutralize any and all contentious issues not related to economic opportunity and make the 2015 election campaign all about Mr. Harper and his economic management performance since he took office in 2003.  Unfortunately for Mr. Harper and his government, things have not gone as planned.  Today the prime minister and a few handlers are scrambling about trying to salvage the Harperland image.   

Temporary Foreign Workers Program – In Chaos  

The Temporary Foreign Workers Program has been around for decades and has become an important part of making Canada’s diverse economy run more efficiently.  In the past eight years things have gone amok where regulations that were to operate in the national interest were severely abused, if not ignored.  Mines in Canada are now owned and operated by foreign managers using foreign workers, at the expense of using qualified Canadian workers.  In the service industries the situation appears to be worse with critics saying that the situation is an exercise in “human trafficking and slavery”.  Minister Kenney placed a moratorium on applications in the food services sector indicating that the moratorium is only temporary – the situation is a disaster without a solution.  The Temporary Foreign Workers Program as it now exists was created by the Harper government and can’t be fixed easily and definitely can’t be fixed by the 2015 election.  Mr. Harper is going to be living with the debacle and some 200,000 temporary foreign workers working in Canada.

Harper’s Aboriginal Education Program – In Chaos

In early April the Harper government tabled the First Nations Control of First Nations Education Act.  When the aboriginal education initiative was first agreed to by the prime minister and Shawn Atleo, it was seen to be a historic understanding.  The agreement outlined a transfer of the education portfolio to some 600 reserve chiefs – the chiefs would be responsible for education on their respective reserves but would have to meet minimum education standards – the money for construction of schools and administration would be in the billions, to be worked out in more detail after the 2015 federal election.  Last week Shawn Atleo resigned his position as National Chief of the Assembly of First Nations because of the education agreement.  The Bill on aboriginal education is on hold with the federal government because of the Atleo resignation.  In my view Mr. Harper’s strategy to give control to individual chiefs was a cunning move on the prime minister’s part and all that it had to offer was gobs of money.  Surely Mr. Harper knew that the individual chiefs couldn’t handle such a monumental transition – nor could the Assembly of First Nations coordinate such a major transition.  The result is chaos within the aboriginal community and what is at stake – a generation of young aboriginals will be without an education program – the real tragedy. 

Supreme Court Smeared by Harper – Not a Good Idea

The Supreme Court recently issued two rulings which have disappointed Prime Minister Harper, big time.  First, the Supreme Court ruled that Senate Reform could not be undertaken without measured agreement from the provinces.  Mr. Harper was disappointed by the decision and shrugged it off with the suggestion that the court ignored the primacy of the federal parliament and it was now up to the provinces to respond.  In my view Mr. Harper has ignored his responsibility as prime minister of Canada, but in a way does neutralize the issue for the 2015 election campaign.  Second case, the Supreme Court rejected Prime Minister Harper’s nomination of Justice Marc Nadon to the high court.  The rejection incensed Prime Minister Harper to the degree that the prime minister suggested that Chief Justice Beverely  McLachlin acted inappropriately in the nomination process.  Canada’s Bar Association president, Fred Headon offered his opinion on the discord between the prime minister and the chief justice, indicating that the chief justice of the Supreme Court did nothing wrong and suggested that Mr. Harper should clarify publically that the chief justice acted appropriately.  As to the impact this dispute might have on the 2015 election, it’s going to have a big impact because it shows the dark side of Mr. Harper’s personality and management style – nobody is safe from Steven Harper’s wrath. 

Tom Flanagan, On Harper’s Personality - the Dark Side

Up until 2005 Tom Flanagan was a very close confident and senior advisor to Steven Harper in his rise to power.  In his book, Persona Non Grata: the Death of Free Speech in the Internet Age, Mr. Flanagan writes: “There’s a dark, almost Nixonian, side to the man. He can be suspicious, secretive and vindictive, prone to sudden eruptions of white-hot rage over meaningless trivia, at other times falling into week-long depressions in which he’s incapable of making decisions.”  As to whether Mr. Harper participated in Nixonian type “dirty tricks” Mr. Flanagan opined in a television interview that Stephen Harper pushed the envelope many times but never broke the law.  Will Mr. Flanagan and his book have an impact on the 2015 election?  You bet, and it might have an earlier impact as well!