Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 189 (September 21, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
For me, political elections are a time of excitement and anticipation - I always enjoy discussing results and consequences of those results as they unfold, and of course, who or which party might come out on top. At times, I have been known to place a friendly wager on election results and of course it's always fodder for my column - let's hope I don't have to "eat" any of my words for this week's assessment as things are changing by the hour and my publication deadline is fast approaching. Last Saturday's PC leadership contest is no exception to my rule of expressing my personal views as clearly as possible, so here's my take on what happened in the last couple of days and what might unfold in the next week or two:
Of The Six, There Are Now Three -
Of the six original candidates for the Premier, Province of Alberta, three won entry into the second ballot vote set for October 1. Last Saturday, Gary Mar became the clear leader right from the start of the vote count with Doug Horner, Ted Morton and Alison Redford see-sawing throughout the night for the number two and three spots. In the end Gary Mar got 41 percent of the vote (24,195 votes); Alison Redford got close to 20 percent with 11,129 votes and Doug Horner got 15 per cent or 8,635 votes - the remaining 25 percent of the votes went to Doug Griffiths (3 percent), Ted Morton (12 percent) and Rick Orman (10 percent). In my view Gary Mar got respectable support from voters throughout the province, winning over his competitors in 52 of Alberta's 83 constituencies and showing exceptional strength in Edmonton's 18 constituencies - one close observer has estimated that Mar received close to 60 percent of the Edmonton area vote. Alison Redford received a smaller vote count but garnered respectable counts throughout many constituencies in the province with good support coming from southern constituencies. Doug Horner's strength was without question in the northern constituencies - in the Lac La Biche-St. Paul Constituency Mr. Horner got over 80 percent of the vote and in Athabasca-Redwater he got 56 percent - Mr. Horner had poor showings in a number of southern constituencies (particularly in the Calgary area where in some locations his vote count was in the single digits).
Successful Strategies, Unsuccessful Strategies -
In my view, Mr. Mar executed an impressive campaign strategy; a strategy that came close to a first ballot win - some have said that getting targeted groups out to vote for him was a particularly successful tactic in Mar's campaign and that made all the difference in the world for his provincial vote count. Doug Horner's strategic failure was that he wasn't able to energize rural voters in southern Alberta, an energy that he clearly had in the northern part of the province - also he couldn't get any meaningful support in either of the major cities - for me it means that Doug Horner was branded to be too rural - the same type of brand given to Ed Stelmach in his leadership campaign days. Alison Redford's campaign strategy was to get onto the second ballot - I can't figure out how she did it but she was successful and came out as a clear second place finisher, although a distant second place. Alison Redford is smart; clear in her policy stances and voiced a number of worthwhile ideas during the leadership debates - so what does Redford have to do over the next two weeks, if she wants to win Alberta's top political job? In my view, Alison Redford has to implement a strategy that excites a lot of "new" voters in the province and those "new" voters have to get out and vote for her on October 1 - but there is more, she needs to garner strong support from the candidates that lost in the first ballot and convince their voter base to get out a vote for her and she still needs to do more, she needs to somehow negotiate with Doug Horner supporters to put Alison Redford as their second choice preference on the October 1 ballot - not only is the process a little confusing it is a real long shot for Alison Redford. Also, Doug Horner, who placed third in the first ballot vote, will have to use an identical vote getting strategy as recommended for Redford, if he is to have a realistic chance to secure Alberta's top political job. Things have become more difficult for both Alison Redford and Doug Horner; Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Doug Griffiths publicly endorsed Gary Mar and the Mar bid to become Alberta's next premier - this development has added to Gary Mar's momentum and has made the leadership aspirations of both Alison Redford or Doug Horner virtually impossible to grasp within a two week period. What does all this complexity and confusion mean??? - It means a lot political maneuvering by the leadership candidates and a lot of serious thinking by those who want to maintain party unity - and that means at all costs, avoid the appearance of party division and acrimony within the leadership candidate camps - most important it means; either a quick endorsement of Gary Mar by all the candidates or make the October 1 ballot a two person race - Gary Mar opposite either Alison Redford or Doug Horner, but not both - and it all has to happen soon, in the next few days and well before October 1 - my bet all the candidates (both winners and losers) are going to end up and endorsing Gary Mar as Alberta's Premier-elect.
A Footnote - The Real Threat to PC Alberta!
It is worth mentioning the failure strategy of candidate Ted Morton and his inability to secure a slot on the second ballot - a strategic failure that could very well have ominous implications on the whole PC Alberta Party and the future of the "progressive conservative" movement in Alberta. Mr. Morton was the candidate who clearly indicated that he was the only candidate able to fight off the threats posed by the Wildrose Party and bring wayward progressive conservatives back into PC Alberta's camp - he was quite successful in his advocacy and was branded as such, but ended up unsuccessful in getting those "wayward" right-wing-voters out to vote for him - in my view it meant that a good number of right-wing conservatives are now comfortable with Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party and they simply didn't get out and vote for Ted Morton - if my logic is correct it could explain why the overall turnout on Saturday was about half what it was in the last PC Alberta leadership race and that means serious problems for Alberta's new premier and PC Alberta.
Thursday, 22 September 2011
Alberta - Interesting Times
Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 188 (September 14, 2011)
Whispering in the Wind
Politically speaking, Albertans are living in some interesting times:
PC Alberta First Ballot Vote - September 17
PC Alberta members do have an awesome responsibility on Saturday, September 17 - voting for one of six candidates seeking the Alberta PC leadership job (and Premier, Province of Alberta). And if none of the six candidates wins a clear 50 percent of the vote - the PC party members will make a preference choice (first and second choice of the top three candidates) on Saturday, October 1. For those wanting to vote at the Smoky Lake poll on Saturday September 17 (at the Ukrainian National Hall between 9:00am - 7:00pm) please take note of the following requirement: be a Canadian citizen; present a 2011 PC Alberta membership card; two pieces of identification that indicates residence in the Athabasca - Redwater constituency.
From Six to Three?
The election of Alberta's next premier has moved into the first phase of a two phase election process - most political observers have suggested that none of the six candidates will get 50 percent of the vote so a second ballot on October 1 is likely. In my view the Alberta PC leadership campaign has to a large extent been an Oh-Hum campaign with only one or two of the six showing the least amount of interest or passion to be leader - in some cases some of the candidates think it is their political birthright to be Premier - let's hope Albertans will see some sparks fly over the next couple of weeks. Below is a thumbnail sketch of the six candidates and how I think they've faired on the campaign trail:
Doug Griffiths: Too young and inexperienced; watch out, he'll be a force in ten years; interesting to see who he supports for the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Gary Mar: Was front runner; made a bad mistake on suggesting two-tier health care system (I think he was mis-understood); will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Doug Horner: Has a lot of support in rural Alberta, particularly in the north; needs to show himself as premier, with passion; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Ted Morton: Very capable; looks like he could do the job; smeared by someone on the question of secret e-mail addresses; not known in the north; never visited Smoky Lake.
Rick Orman: Unknown in Alberta, old hat; nice guy but out of the question; won't make it to the second ballot: never visited Smoky Lake.
Alison Redford: Clear, articulate and knows her stuff; will make it to the second ballot; has a chance if her campaign can show herself to be strong enough to fight the big boys in Calgary; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Alberta Liberal Leader, Raj Sherman -
Former Tory MLA Raj Sherman is now leader of the Alberta Liberal Party. Mr. Sherman garnered something like 54 percent support in a week long electoral process that ended last Saturday - a voting system that some have said was confusing, it included Alberta Liberal Party members as well as non-party member Albertans who simply registered to vote in the leadership race. It is worthy to note that Mr. Sherman, an emergency room doctor and a former Progressive Conservative MLA, was ousted from the PC caucus last November over healthcare disagreements with Premier Ed Stelmach. As expressed in the leadership campaign, Mr. Sherman outlined his political priorities to be: responsible government; stable economy; healthcare; education and support for seniors. A specific priority Mr. Sherman has mentioned - the need for Albertan's to further up-grade Alberta's oil sands products. On Monday the eight Liberal caucus members in the Alberta Legislature welcomed Raj Sherman as their new leader, which suggests to me that Mr. Sherman will be moving the Liberal Party of Alberta to the right of what it was.
Whispering in the Wind
Politically speaking, Albertans are living in some interesting times:
PC Alberta First Ballot Vote - September 17
PC Alberta members do have an awesome responsibility on Saturday, September 17 - voting for one of six candidates seeking the Alberta PC leadership job (and Premier, Province of Alberta). And if none of the six candidates wins a clear 50 percent of the vote - the PC party members will make a preference choice (first and second choice of the top three candidates) on Saturday, October 1. For those wanting to vote at the Smoky Lake poll on Saturday September 17 (at the Ukrainian National Hall between 9:00am - 7:00pm) please take note of the following requirement: be a Canadian citizen; present a 2011 PC Alberta membership card; two pieces of identification that indicates residence in the Athabasca - Redwater constituency.
From Six to Three?
The election of Alberta's next premier has moved into the first phase of a two phase election process - most political observers have suggested that none of the six candidates will get 50 percent of the vote so a second ballot on October 1 is likely. In my view the Alberta PC leadership campaign has to a large extent been an Oh-Hum campaign with only one or two of the six showing the least amount of interest or passion to be leader - in some cases some of the candidates think it is their political birthright to be Premier - let's hope Albertans will see some sparks fly over the next couple of weeks. Below is a thumbnail sketch of the six candidates and how I think they've faired on the campaign trail:
Doug Griffiths: Too young and inexperienced; watch out, he'll be a force in ten years; interesting to see who he supports for the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Gary Mar: Was front runner; made a bad mistake on suggesting two-tier health care system (I think he was mis-understood); will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Doug Horner: Has a lot of support in rural Alberta, particularly in the north; needs to show himself as premier, with passion; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Ted Morton: Very capable; looks like he could do the job; smeared by someone on the question of secret e-mail addresses; not known in the north; never visited Smoky Lake.
Rick Orman: Unknown in Alberta, old hat; nice guy but out of the question; won't make it to the second ballot: never visited Smoky Lake.
Alison Redford: Clear, articulate and knows her stuff; will make it to the second ballot; has a chance if her campaign can show herself to be strong enough to fight the big boys in Calgary; will be on the second ballot; visited Smoky Lake.
Alberta Liberal Leader, Raj Sherman -
Former Tory MLA Raj Sherman is now leader of the Alberta Liberal Party. Mr. Sherman garnered something like 54 percent support in a week long electoral process that ended last Saturday - a voting system that some have said was confusing, it included Alberta Liberal Party members as well as non-party member Albertans who simply registered to vote in the leadership race. It is worthy to note that Mr. Sherman, an emergency room doctor and a former Progressive Conservative MLA, was ousted from the PC caucus last November over healthcare disagreements with Premier Ed Stelmach. As expressed in the leadership campaign, Mr. Sherman outlined his political priorities to be: responsible government; stable economy; healthcare; education and support for seniors. A specific priority Mr. Sherman has mentioned - the need for Albertan's to further up-grade Alberta's oil sands products. On Monday the eight Liberal caucus members in the Alberta Legislature welcomed Raj Sherman as their new leader, which suggests to me that Mr. Sherman will be moving the Liberal Party of Alberta to the right of what it was.
Wednesday, 7 September 2011
Alberta Elections
Smoky Lake Signal Article No. 187
(September 7, 2011)
Alberta Elections -
In the last few weeks Alberta politics has become more interesting for political commentators and the media where there seems to be more reporting and assessment. For the general public, things seem to have become more confusing; and for me, I have become quite irritated by all the political survey calls coming through on my telephone. A little re-cap: Albertans have just experienced an Alberta Liberal Party leadership contest (voting was on September 3) where you could vote for one of five Liberal leadership candidates, without being an Alberta Liberal Party member. Albertans have also been informed and are now being enumerated for the next federal election which is still years away. At the same time and over the next few weeks, two possible election ballots will be held to elect a new leader of PC Alberta Party and therefore the new Premier, Province of Alberta. For the PC Alberta election contest, it is a two stage ballot process and you will have to be a card carrying member of the PC Alberta Party. The key dates for the PC leadership campaign are: Saturday, September, 17 in which PC Alberta card carrying members can select only one of the six candidates running to be PC Alberta Party leader. If none of the six candidates receives a clear majority of the votes (over 50 percent), a second ballot will be held on Saturday, October 1 when PC Alberta members can vote for their first and second preference, of three remaining candidates - the three candidates that will appear on the second ballot are the three candidates who received the most votes in the September 17 ballot. It is important to remember that to vote at the Smoky Lake Poll station you must be in possession of a 2011 PC Alberta membership card; reside within the Athabasca - Redwater Constituency; and produce two pieces of valid identification. For those that cannot vote on Saturday, September 17 and (if necessary) on October 1, Advance Polls will be open on September 13 (first ballot) and September 27 (second ballot, if necessary). Watch the newspapers for the specific polling station times and locations. Location of the Smoky Lake Poll station for the first ballot has been identified:
First Ballot, Advance Poll - Tuesday, September 13 - Ukrainian National Hall - #107 Willow Creek Street, Smoky Lake (9:00am to 7:00pm);
First Ballot - Saturday, September 17 - Ukrainian National Hall - #107 Willow Creek Street, Smoky Lake (9:00am to 7:00pm);
A Small Irritation:
What has become quite irritating is the number of telephone survey calls that I and my household received in the last month or so - well over a dozen calls from various political groups in Alberta - its gotten to the point that I hang up on the caller (the computer), much like the calls I don't listen to from Florida or Virginia asking me about my credit card rating or how I can receive 100,000 free air miles if I just press 1.
(September 7, 2011)
Alberta Elections -
In the last few weeks Alberta politics has become more interesting for political commentators and the media where there seems to be more reporting and assessment. For the general public, things seem to have become more confusing; and for me, I have become quite irritated by all the political survey calls coming through on my telephone. A little re-cap: Albertans have just experienced an Alberta Liberal Party leadership contest (voting was on September 3) where you could vote for one of five Liberal leadership candidates, without being an Alberta Liberal Party member. Albertans have also been informed and are now being enumerated for the next federal election which is still years away. At the same time and over the next few weeks, two possible election ballots will be held to elect a new leader of PC Alberta Party and therefore the new Premier, Province of Alberta. For the PC Alberta election contest, it is a two stage ballot process and you will have to be a card carrying member of the PC Alberta Party. The key dates for the PC leadership campaign are: Saturday, September, 17 in which PC Alberta card carrying members can select only one of the six candidates running to be PC Alberta Party leader. If none of the six candidates receives a clear majority of the votes (over 50 percent), a second ballot will be held on Saturday, October 1 when PC Alberta members can vote for their first and second preference, of three remaining candidates - the three candidates that will appear on the second ballot are the three candidates who received the most votes in the September 17 ballot. It is important to remember that to vote at the Smoky Lake Poll station you must be in possession of a 2011 PC Alberta membership card; reside within the Athabasca - Redwater Constituency; and produce two pieces of valid identification. For those that cannot vote on Saturday, September 17 and (if necessary) on October 1, Advance Polls will be open on September 13 (first ballot) and September 27 (second ballot, if necessary). Watch the newspapers for the specific polling station times and locations. Location of the Smoky Lake Poll station for the first ballot has been identified:
First Ballot, Advance Poll - Tuesday, September 13 - Ukrainian National Hall - #107 Willow Creek Street, Smoky Lake (9:00am to 7:00pm);
First Ballot - Saturday, September 17 - Ukrainian National Hall - #107 Willow Creek Street, Smoky Lake (9:00am to 7:00pm);
A Small Irritation:
What has become quite irritating is the number of telephone survey calls that I and my household received in the last month or so - well over a dozen calls from various political groups in Alberta - its gotten to the point that I hang up on the caller (the computer), much like the calls I don't listen to from Florida or Virginia asking me about my credit card rating or how I can receive 100,000 free air miles if I just press 1.
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